Creating A Shopping List

Everyone seems to have their own entry levels, it could be 1150, 1100, 1050 or even 1000. However, its never too early to start creating your own shopping list to be prepared when they actually fall to your desired levels. Naturally, the selection is based on the new political landscape. Here is my list:

The Ones Institutional Buyers Like

DIGI

Public Bank

Maybank

Parkson

Bursa

TM

Maybulk

Sapuracrest


The Ones Whacked Down For Being In The Wrong Sector But Actually Having Decent Regional & International Business

KNM

IJM

Evergreen


The Ones Being Whacked Senseless & Having The Bad News Largely Discounted - For A Quick Trade

Tenaga (below RM6.00)

Commerz (below RM8.50)

Sime Darby (below RM9.00)

SP Setia (below RM3.40)

Gamuda (below RM2.30)

AirAsia (below RM1.10)

UEM World (below RM2.40)

p/s photo: Syafinaz




Value & Risk

pureland said...

Mr Dali

What say U ? Market sentiment U turn and KLCI looking pretty good.

A time to ' re-rate ' your target to enter or still sideline waiting for subprime bubble full blown out?

Care to give some advise.

Comment: It doesn't make sense for local stocks to stage such a decent rally after falling 10%. If you are buying now, you are buying into the story that nothing much will change with the new political landscape. How can things not change? The state governments have the upper hand and can delay force renegotiation on many things. Things that has to do with land and infrastructure will be affected. The market should see zero participation by foreign funds for now, its all local funds support. Maybe they were instructed to shore up the index for reasons which you and I should easily surmise - but that is not creating a balanced valuation, it creates a skewed valuation on many stocks. The risk and value ratio does not add up at present levels. I believe the "wayang kulit" is only meant to last a few days so as to ease the pressure on a couple of people to resign. I believe the proper correction will resume and I still maintain my generous entry levels (i.e. buying on the high side of fair value) of 1100-1130.
pureland said...

Mr Dali

Since USD is running a huge massive budget deficit, I cannot understand how FED can able to create USD200 b for the market?

Does this mean this USD200 b is actually paper money that they are busying printing now?

If this is their action to ease liquidity, I believe in longer term they are inviting even greater trouble. Instead of detox the current problem, they are pumping in more toxin into the system.

What say U?

Comment: The Fed can print money but that is not backed by anything. They lend to banks, which the banks have to pay back, so when the banks pay back, the Fed can write the sums off. Hence when there are situations where the Fed writes off a huge sum of debt owing, which means they had been pumping banana money into the system, and then not requiring the banks to pay back - that could result in massive selling in USD and reduces its perception of the currency as a good store of value. Countries that do that, you can find in Africa a lot, where you will also see inflation in the 100% to 1,000% p.a. So by lending to banks in huge sums, the Fed is delaying the pain for the banks. Somebody has to pay back the money to the Fed - the process gets drawn out more as the Fed tries to sell more US bonds to fund these transactions. You can see that that's what has been happening for the past 20 years. USA has been living on borrowed money and borrowed time, just paying interest to bond holders to finance their lifestyle. Imagine America as someone who has not one or two credit cards, but literally hundreds, when one is maxed out they apply for another one. The last 4 years have seen the rest of the world saying enough is enough - you don't discipline yourself, we will. The last 4 years to date has seen the USD lose 40%-45% of its value against most currencies.



What's Bernanke Smoking?

CNBC:
The Federal Reserve on Tuesday announced it is ramping up efforts to provide more relief in the spreading credit crisis, saying it will make up to US$200 billion in cash available to cash-strapped financial institutions.
The Fed said it will lend the money to financial institutions for a term of 28 days, rather than overnight. The action is being coordinated with central banks in other countries to try to provide help in a global credit crises that threatens to push the U.S. economy into its first recession since 2001 if it hasn't already.

"Pressures in some of these markets have recently increased again," the Fed said in a statement. "We all continue to work together and will take appropriate steps to address those liquidity pressures." The other banks involved are the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank. In addition, the Fed has authorized increases in existing programs called 'swap lines' with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank. "These arrangements will now provide dollars in amounts of up to US$30 billion and US$6 billion to the ECB and the SNB respectively," the Fed said, extending the term of these swap lines through Sept. 30.

The new lending initiative "is intended to promote liquidity in the financing markets for Treasury and other collateral and thus to foster the functioning of financial markets more generally," the Fed said. Its announcement said that securities will be made available through an auction process on a weekly basis beginning March 27. The new program, called the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF), is geared to provide primary dealers -- big investment firms that trade directly with the Fed -- with short-term loans. They would pledge other securities -- including federal agency debt, federal agency residential-mortgage-backed securities -- as collateral for the loans. The loans would be made available through an auction process. Auctions will be held on a weekly basis, beginning on March 27, 2008.

The Fed since December has been making short-term loans available to banks through a new auction facility. It has provided US$160 billion available to squeezed banks in hopes it will help them to continue lending to individuals and companies.

The Fed has been working to pump billions of dollars into the banking system to aid an economy rocked by the subprime mortgage crisis and the severe tightening of credit.

A meltdown in the housing and credit markets has made banks and other financial institutions reluctant to lend to each other, causing a cash crunch. Financial companies wracked up multibillion-dollar losses as investments in mortgage-backed securities soured with the housing market's bust. Problems first started in the market for subprime mortgages-- those made to people with blemished credit histories. However, troubles have spread to other areas.

The picture worsened just after the Fed's announcement Friday, when the Labor Department released a report showing employers slashed another 63,000 jobs in February, the most in five years.

Comments:

a) US$160bn not enough, now US$200bn. Why is Bernanke doing this? It appears he is beholden to the big banks, when his real priority is a ensuring growth with minimal inflation. If it was Paul Volcker, he would have asked the banks to f.o.

b) It also appears that Bernanke is very keen NOT to let the stock indices fall further. When did that became the Fed's priority? Does the entire Federal Reserve board have a lot of stocks? Even if they do, its not their business to save the stock players.

c) If the motive is to save ailing banks and mortgage businesses from folding - is it really in the interest of a well run economy NOT to allow them to fail? This is reminiscent of Japan's credit implosion in early 90s, where nothing moved, nobody called on each other's debts. Till today, the economy is still working off the excesses, more than 15 years of stupidity.

d) When there are bubble, the market will self-correct, and they need to correct. The Fed should step in to facilitate an orderly correction, not manipulate or delay or stave off the needed correction. Not allowing things to correct will ensure problem credit still being pervasive within the system, and actually pumping liquidity will ensure the bubble is being reflated and will rear its ugly head again soon.

e) Its also ethically wrong not to punish the banks who made the mistakes, or rather allow the banks to be punished by the markets. Banks lend aggressively and recklessly, and they pocket the fees and trading profits. Due to the recklessness the markets imploded, now they come running to the Fed to rescue them from the mess. Where is the logic and sensibility? This also presents an unfair treatment of investment pros who shorted or betted that the credit implosion would come about - they deserve their gains for being right, what kind of casino is this - red the banks win, black the banks don't really lose??!!

p/s the photo is the underbelly of a unique stingray




1230-1250

That has been my buying entry target levels for a few weeks now, and its coming very soon. Naturally now that I post it, many will want me to justify my call. Well, its my opinion and market reading. I mentioned 1250 in Seng's chatbox a couple of weeks ago, and nobody said anything bearish. Now we can hear 1100 or even 1000 being predicted. It has a lot to do with reading investors' behaviour and sentiment. You don't want to sell at 1400, not at 1350 but at 1250 you really want to sell. That's good enough for me. You cannot really justify buying levels, everyone has one. If you map earnings growth two years out vis-a-vis interest rates less dividend yields, the market is already attractive at 1320, but I still did not see enough bearish calls. Now I am beginning to, and it looks ripe. The additional sums being forecast needed to be written off by banks and mortgage lenders (approximately another US$100bn) has worked its way into share prices somewhat. I see 11,750 as very decent entry levels for Dow stocks.


The current wave down is only slightly related to elections, I mean there are no elections in other markets but they are falling also. There may be some foreign selling ahead of the uncertainty of elections this weekend, but its more overall bad sentiment for stocks in general. I see opposition gaining good ground this time, 22 to maybe 35 or 40 seats. Is that bad or good, who cares. Markets will rebound whatever the result as long as BN is in power. Hope that the stronger preference for opposition will lead to more self-introspection by BN. One can only hope.




Reassessing CPO

Supply Side
a) CPO stocks in Malaysia for January 2008 was 1.88m tonnes compared to December's 1.68m tonnes. However, it was interesting to note that some of it was due to Indonesian exporters keeping their CPO in Malaysia owing to the recent hike in export tax in Indonesia.
b) CPO production for first half 2008 relative to second half of 2008 is expected to be 48:52 compared to last year's figure of 44:56. That loosely translated meant that supply in 1H2008 will be a bit stronger. The weaker second half of 2008 may also indicate that current strong CPO prices may be sustainable right till the end of 2008.
c) The inventory levels for corn and soybean in the US is unlikely to increase thus resulting in a prolonged mismatch between demand and supply, favouring CPO. The demand and supply there should take at least 4 years to adjust.
d) The Indonesian Government said that it would increase export tax on CPO to 15% if CPO price exceeds US$1,100/tonne or RM3,553/tonne. Current tax rate on CPO exports is 10%. This again favours Malaysian exporters.The increased export tax rate would affect Wilmar International Ltd and Indofood Agri-Resources, which are among the largest plantation companies in Indonesia. Sime Darby and KLK would be affected. There is minimal impact on IOI Corporation as the group is only starting to develop palm oil on its newly acquired landbank this year.

Demand Side
a) European governments may be revising down their target of using 5.75% biofuel in the transportation sector by 2010. Even now, the utilisation rate of biodiesel plants in Germany is less than 30% owing to the high feedstock cost. However, that is similar for all biodiesel operators and does not represent a genuine demand factor in the long term. Biodiesel demand acts as a support only when CPO prices goes lower.
b) There is a shortage in edible oils still in China, exacerbated by heavy snowstorms which have affected 3.26m hectares or almost 50% of the winter rapeseed acreage. China should be stepping up its demand for palm oilowing to the shortage of vegetable oils.
c) For oleochemical industry which uses palm kernel oil (which has also risen in tandem with CPO prices), there is resistance in demand with fatty acids at current high prices. However, recent IOI Corp's results still showed better margins and higherdemand from sales of fatty acids.
d) Palm oil exports to USA are also expected to climb on the back of a potential change in the chocolate production standards and health benefits of palm oil.Growing biofuel usage in USA supported by legislation and subsidies would also exacerbate the shortage of corn and soybean oil, which would benefit palm oil.China and USA accounted for 25% and 7% of Malaysia's palm oil exports in January 2008 respectively.

The outlook is clear and the current CPO price above RM4,000 is not likely to be the high for 2008. Investors seem to be anticipating a drop back to RM3,500 very soon, which is not likely. It is also easy to leave out those with "issues" (denoted in green). There has been a disconnect in plantations share prices, maybe affected somewhat by sluggish market sentiment. Best for exposure besides IOI Corp should be IJM Plantations (RM4.10) and TH Plantations (RM3.26).


Manipulated Counters?

Finally, a real scoop from The Edge: The fall from grace of UK-registered financial institution, Global Trader Europe Ltd, has had a far-reaching impact on certain Malaysian stocks and sparked off investigations of possible manipulation of these counters, sources said. It is understood that at least nine companies on Bursa Malaysia have been adversely impacted by “forced selling” of stocks that are pledged to Global Trader in return for a leveraged line of credit. The heavy selldown of these stocks is said to have caused the authorities to start investigation on possible manipulation. Towards this end, several brokers have been quizzed by the authorities.

“It is not known how many more companies have shares pledged with Global Trader, which had been actively dishing out lines of credit to Malaysian investors last year,” said a source. Shareholders of the affected companies are said to have pledged their shares to Global Trader’s office in Bangkok. Following the liquidity crunch faced by its parent company in the UK, the administrators scrutinised the accounts of its clients, especially in its Bangkok branch. It sold the pledged shares and other assets of accounts that had a margin shortfall.

This in turn triggered a massive forced selling of the stocks that were pledged. Companies affected are said to have included:

H-Displays
Ygl Convergence
My EG Services
Reliance Pacific
Aturmaju Resources
Liqua Health Corp
Cymao Holdings
Axis Incorporation

The most noticeable casualty is H-Displays, a Mesdaq-listed company which saw some RM270 million of its market capitalisation wiped out in three days. Last Monday, the stock was trading at RM1.57 and had a market capitalisation of RM329.7 million. Last Friday, it closed at 29 sen, with a market capitalisation of RM60.9 million. A check on H-Displays’ annual report shows that Hitech Ventures Pte Ltd, the controlling shareholder of H-Displays with some 51.2% equity, had pledged about 13 million of its 107.6 million shares.

It is understood that Merrill Lynch, which had been hired to assist Global Trader in its asset recovery process, had been involved with the sell order. My EG Services meanwhile, tumbled some 22% over the past two weeks, shedding close to RM67 million in market capitalisation.
Yet another Mesdaq-listed company, Ygl Convergence lost 69% in market capitalisation through last week, after its price fell from 57 sen on Monday down to 17.5 sen last Friday.

Global Trader was placed under special administrators in mid-February after one of its clients defaulted on a margin call, which resulted in Global Trader having a deficiency in its capital requirements.


Switch Off The Lights When You Leave

Transmile Group Bhd went deeper into the red in the fourth quarter to December 31 2007 from losses incurred through bad debt expenses, aircraft depreciation and impairment charges. The air cargo operator's net loss widened to RM179.4 million from a loss of RM24.9 million in the previous corresponding period. Transmile said its net loss included a provision for doubtful debts of RM69.7 million and an additional depreciation of aircraft of RM18.4 million. Impairment loss in parts and components totalled RM51.6 million.
Revenue, meanwhile, dropped 21 per cent to RM172.2 million from RM218.6 million in the year-ago quarter.

Transmile attributed the revenue decline to the cancellation of unprofitable routes and certain flights. For the full year, net loss widened to RM279.6 million, four times the RM63.8 million reported in 2006. Revenue declined 16 per cent to RM616.2 million from RM731.3 million a year ago.


Comment:

Does the realistically-revised business model stacks up? Let's look at the cost side.
Let's leave the provisioning for doubtful debts aside as that is a legacy problem. It is likely that it wouldn't be profitable in 2008 even, earliest will be 2009 and even then the figure is not going to be great as they have been cutting routes in order to redo the business model.

Hence, the way to invest is to look at RNAV which is RM4.73 end-2007. A safety margin of of RM500m (RM279 in 2007) in losses will whack the figure down to RM1.284bn - RM500m = RM784m / 271.5m = RM2.88. That is provided the company turns profitable in 2009. The share price now at RM1.80 basically assumes a market cap of RM488m. That literally assumes an additional RM500m in losses in addition to 2007's RM279m losses. That is unlikely to happen. Hence buyers below RM2.00 would have some margin of comfort.
Even so, on projected revenue of just RM150m x 4 = RM600m, and assuming a generous net margin of 10% = RM60m in net profit when business finally turns around or a net EPS of just 22 sen.

Hence even at RM2.00 on a good case scenario in 2009 we are looking at a PER of 9x 2009. It looks like an OK bet below RM2.00 but certainly there are much better options around. Even if things turn around, its unlikely to make a lot of money within the next 3-4 years. For starters, Evergreen Fibreboard is cheaper and has an excellent business model, highly profitable, margins in the 30% range, pays a great dividend yield of 6%... why bother in trying to bottom-fish among the hapless and helpless.