Must Catch This - Junji Delfino Live!!!

Synopsis

It's been a long time coming but the imcomparable Junji Delfino - a celebrated singer, actress, writer and comedienne - will finally take the stage in her first on-woman show, rightly titled "Here I Am...Live". It's going to be a high voltage mix of music, hilarious commentary and fantastic autobiography that celebrates her 30th career anniversary and 50th birthday. Yes, she is turning 50 and she is going to raise the roof and tell the truth. Combining some of the greatest hits in jazz and theatre with her own brand-new material, she'll will be singing songs like "Papa Can You Hear Me", "Blame It On My Youth", "How Do You Keep The Music Playing", "Something Stupid" and the first single from her debut album "Here I Am". With a vocal brilliance best described as half laser beam, half lava flow, her show promises to swing with the vibrancy that has become synonymous with her name.

Reowned composers/pianists David Gomes and Michael Veerapan will partner as musical director for "Here I Am...Live". David and Michael's connection with Junji goes back to her first performances in KL at the famous All That Jazz club in the early 1990s. "Here I Am...Live" will also feature special guests appearances by the legendary Salamiah Hassan, and actors/comedians Jo Kukathas, Edwin Sumun and Patrick Teoh from Instant Cafe Theatre Company.

"Here I Am...Live" plays at the PJ Live Arts theatre in Jaya One (Jalan University, Petaling Jaya) from July 15-17. Call 03 7960 0439 (PJ Live Arts box-office) for tickets and bookings.

Messi Distracted During World Cup

Obviously the first one was doctored, but the Messi's photos had to be real ... sigh... talk about close marking.

2V1G and JZ8 Double Bill Concert

This is your early and possibly last chance to get tickets to this intimate evening of absolute great Chinese music. A double bill featuring JZ8 and 2V1G, bearing in mind both groups have minimal instrumentation, ala Tay Cher Siang on piano and Roger Wang on guitar, it has to be an intimate setting as a large auditorium will lose a lot of intimacy. Capacity is 400 and I can tell you that more than half has been sold by word of mouth alone. Get yours early.

I have featured Lydia and Cher Siang's JZ8 album and you can have a listen to their songs on the audio box on the right. I was a bit hesitant with 2V1G as Regina has left the group and when Leslie said a guy is replacing her, I was more apprehensive. 2V1G's second album should be out in the first week of August, and I got to have an early listen to it in Leslie's car a few days back. My verdict: the new guy is very good, the second album is still very good even though it may not have as many popular big hits like the first album. Roger's playing is more confident and assured as I think he is more confident tackling Chinese song in the second album (as Roger's forte is more jazz and English tunes).

2V1G + JZ8 Double Bill Concert

Date: 21st August 2010 (Saturday)
Venue: Bentley Music Auditorium, Mutiara Damansara
Time: 9pm – 11pm
Ticket Price: RM90
Booking: Ms Lim Su Li (017-6586513)

[Synopsis] - from pop pop music website:

Local Audiophile Music Labels, Musictoxin and Pop Pop Music, are collaborating to bring us some fresh, non-mainstream music made for those with discerning tastes.

The two acts they have produced so far, 2V1G (2 Voices, 1 Guitar) and JZ8 (pronounced as Jazzy Eight) have garnered a strong supporter base locally and abroad. Their record sales surprised even major labels who are predominantly concentrating on mainstream pop artistes. Indeed, Musictoxin and Pop Pop Music are pioneering a genre (audiophile music) never before heard in Malaysia.

Since their sold-out gigs at No Black Tie(NBT) two years ago, many have waited patiently for their repeat performance. .... now, 2V1G is back, with a new album, a stronger line-up and an all-around mature performance from Roger Wang, Winnie Ho and Jeffery Lim. The 2nd album looks set to become another best-seller in the music stores, emulating the 10,000 record set by their debut album.

Labelmate JZ8, the Piano-n-Vocal duo featuring Tay Cher Siang on piano and Lydia Chew on vocals, who has just released their debut album on 25th May 2010, is also eager to perform live. Since its album launch in May 2010, JZ8 has sold more than 3,000 copies alone in Malaysia.

What better time than this to feature these two talented acts on the same stage? The organizer certainly thinks this is the right time.

Together, 2V1G and JZ8 are going to thrill your aural senses with a Double-Bill concert held at the very classy Bentley Music Auditorium at Mutiara Damansara come 21st August 2010.

The night promises to be a night where simple, tasteful acoustic music will tug your heartstrings and make you feel warm and cozy inside. 2V1G and JZ8 will sing many Chinese classics from the albums, as well as English evergreens. They will also have a crossover section where the two acts play on the same stage!

Come and witness a new chapter in Malaysia’s music industry where a new genre of music promises to enchant a whole new generation of music lovers!

【他們從來沒有離開過我們】 eagerly awaiting 2v1g

The Big Mac Index

The Economist's Big Mac index is a fun way to keep track of relative purchasing power parity. Though the index has its weaknesses, its still a reliable rough guide to what your currency could buy. The cost of a Big Mac, representing the cost of producing one will somehow include rental, distribution and transportation costs, cost of ingredients, wages, advertising, etc. Hence you could be earning less effectively but you could be buying a lot more in reality.

Malaysia is supposed the second cheapest place on the index followed by China. Is this a reflection of competitiveness? Or a reflection of how many "things are subsidised" in that country? We all know the answer.

Now, let's do a Big Mac index of our own but this time use the cost of buying a car - I bet you we'd rank second from the top, just below Singapore compared to the rest of the world. How in the world do we get to be one of the most expensive place on earth to buy a car??? Again, we all should know the answer.

What's really pathetic is when you divide the cost of a car with the average wage earned per country - I am bloody sure we would be NUMBER ONE in most unaffordable list.

The Dismal Landscape For IPOs

I need not really elaborate on the title for this posting. Even though the index hovered around 1,300 which was pretty decent considering the overall scheme of things, IPOs have had a terrible time. However, thats to be expected and the same scenario was replayed in most IPO markets.



The exception was China as it is still a domestic private investor driven market there. Many still think that they have a much lesser chance of losing money in getting "new shares". To them, existing listed shares or old names mean these shares have more capacity to fall, as they do not expect "new shares" to do likewise. They seem to have the belief that new shares mean cheap on issuance and have nowhere to go except up.

Bursa and SC have tightened listing rules somewhat, but that should not explain why many IPOs perform poorly. I can understand that the dismal performance of the China-listed footwear companies may have triggered some negativity towards IPOs as well.


Bracketed is the comparison of current share price to IPO. Subs refers to the over subscription rate for the Public portion only.

ACE

Kelington Group Berhad IPO Px: 0.53 Public: 960,000 Listed: 25/11/2009 Subs: 45x (now 0.73 +37%)

The Black Sheep - DSC Solutions Berhad IPO Px: 0.50 (1 for 1 bonus prior to listing) Public: 1.0m (2m) Subs: 69.85x Listed: 09/12/2009 (now 0.145 -42%)

Oversea Enterprise Berhad IPO Px: 0.23 Public: 12m Subs: 10.29x Listed: 01/04/2010 (now 0.185 -19%)


Main Board: Just the Public portion

Halex 6m public @ 0.78 Subs: 7x (now 0.57 -27%)

Sinaria 6m @ 0.56 Subs: 5.3x (now 0.28 -50%)

Maxis 150m Subs: 2.4x (flat)

Yoong Onn 6m @ 0.88 Subs: 21x (0.87 flat)

JCY 41m @ 1.80 Subs: 3.5x (now 1.50 -16%)

Hock Heng Stone 6m @ 0.55 Subs: 15.5x (now 0.49 -11%)

Seremban Engineering 6.5m @ 0.85 Subs: 9x (now 0.67 -21%)

Masterskill 20.5m @ 3.50 Subs: 1.45x (now 3.96 +13%)

TurboMech 6m @ 0.63 Subs: 14x (now 0.56 -11%)

Sarawak Cable 6m @ 0.70 Subs: 9.5x (now 0.80 +14%)



Obviously, it is not a matter of whether its ACE or Main Board, the performance has been dismal. I think of the lot, I have only recommended to look at Kelington, which has still held up pretty well. I did not like JCY, I did not like Masterskill, and Seremban Engineering was more because of the free shares via Success Transformers. Getting worthy mention was DSC Solutions, which I whacked as nonsensical.

I know for a fact that Bursa and SC have worked hard to get decent listings. In fact, you'd be surprised at how many failed in their IPO submissions over the past 6 months - many were rejected as having a not solid enough business model.

As you can see from above there is no correlation with the over subscription rate and their eventual performance. After a little lull, we now see a number of companies trying to get listed over the next few weeks. To get at companies with good potential, you have to do some homework. One cannot really rely too much on analyst reports as the companies are forbidden by regulations to provide much guidance or proper projections' details prior to being listed.

The table from MIH lists the companies going for IPO listing over the next few weeks. The date in the second last column represents the listing date.

Berjaya Retail Berhad	478	0.50	101.875	7.0	Main	16/08/10			AmInvestment
EA Holdings Berhad	483	0.25	58.0	2.0	ACE	20/07/10			OSK
Ivory Properties Group Berhad	491	1.00	61.069	9.3	Main	28/07/10			AmInvestment
Tatt Giap Group Berhad	495	0.58	28.76 RM10,000 ICULs	6.0 RM10,000 ICULs	Main	22/07/10			Alliance
SCC Holdings Berhad	496	0.78	11.117	2.0	ACE	03/08/10			Alliance
Focus Point Holdings Berhad	497	0.39	57.0	8.25	ACE	27/07/1

Among the upcoming listings, there is one which I think will be a superior performer among the lot. Will let out more details once listing day draws closer. The valuations are too low for the stock (which I like) and the business model should ensure a sustained buying interest for the stock. Stay tune.

Henderson Land Under Fire

You can decide if its a scam, or high-handed marketing tricks, or a coincidence of the greatest proportions. Billionaire Lee Shau Kee, HK's second richest man, is under fire from all sides on accusations of forged sales created to boost the artificial sustained interest in the marketing of their luxury properties.

On Tuesday, blue-chip property developer Henderson Land said that all but four of the 24 luxury condominiums it had sold last October for record prices at its 39 Conduit Road project were canceled by the buyers. The company, which is controlled by billionaire Lee Shau-kee, booked a loss of 734 million Hong Kong dollars (US$94.2 million) from the cancellations.

Bonnie Ngan, a spokeswoman for Henderson Land, said Wednesday that the cancellations were "very standard" in the industry, and that "there was nothing un-transparent about what happened." Ms. Ngan said the company had pocketed these buyers' initial deposits and would put the condominiums back on the market. Of course the deposits were forfeited, but the question is the magnitude of the cancellations, 20 out of 24 sales???

The ramifications could be broader for the industry, as the government vows to crack down on developers' sales practices amid fears of a property bubble and anger at the city's powerful developers. On the same day that Henderson Land announced the sky-high sale prices at 39 Conduit Road last October, Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang was delivering a policy address vowing to tamp down property prices.

After Henderson Land announced its sales, home prices jumped in the upscale Mid-Levels District where 39 Conduit Road sits. Some analysts said the announced sales had a knock-on effect on sentiment in the broader property market, putting further upward pressure on prices in a city where mass-market apartment prices soared about 30% last year.

After the 39 Conduit Road sale, Hong Kong's government began requiring developers to make transaction information available to the public five days after an initial sales contract is signed. It has also introduced measures, guidelines and requirements that it says has enhanced the transparency of home sales and protected consumer rights.

The news was all the more significant because it was the same 39 Conduit Road which saw the most expensive apartment transacted a few months back. Yes, it was Henderson Land again. The 39 Conduit Road sales generated attention in part because of Henderson Land's claim that it sold one 6,158-square-foot unit for a record US$56.6 million which set a world record price of HK$88,000 ($11,300) per square foot.

Now there are claims that the record sale was actually cushioned by giving the buyer deeper discounts on other purchases of Henderson Land's developments. The unit, which was marketed as sitting on the 68th floor of the building, was actually just on the 44th floor. I guess thats what happens when you take out all the 4's and the entire 40th-49th floors as well, but then doesn't 68th floor then sound like a "trick" when you are nowhere near 68 storeys high. Maybe fengshui is not that unreliable after all, as the 68th floor in actual fact is the real 44th floor, a real fengshui no-no.

I guess the key factor in all this was the fact that most, if not all of the 20 buyers who defaulted sent in their default notices through the same one lawyer firm - interesting. Of course why would Henderson Land create such an artificial buying support only to pull out en masse, as any sane person would know that that would trigger massive ill-will and negative publicity?

Home prices in Hong Kong have risen 5.7 percent this year, adding to 2009’s 29 percent advance and raising concerns the market is overheating. Hong Kong builders often sell apartments before they are completed, drawing in customers by showing models of the homes.

Property Bubbles According To The Economist

If you were to just look at year on year rate of change, you can make a guesstimate on the amount of froth in property prices in a particular property market. But its a shallow estimate. Never mind, let's look at the "frothiest markets":
1) Singapore
2) HK
3) Australia
4) South Africa
5) China



Mish correct said that a better measure would be the long run price to rent ratio, which is the last column on the table provided by The Economist. If you are not staying in it and you can't rent it, there is no accrued value, its just speculation. We find empty apartments and houses throughout Asia, but prices are hovering on the high side still. I find one of the weakest argument is the foreign buyers argument, yes if they are buying to stay or rent, but if its empty, its empty demand.

Another hole with the foreign buyers argument is "its so cheap compared to their own markets" - sooooo what???!!! People may have a lot more opportunity to make 5x your salaries, do you? When you talk to property agents nowadays for properties above RM1m, thats their mantra. They conveniently forget that the basis of property is "rental", "cost of capital or interest rate" and "affordability ratio".

I don't need to elaborate on each of the three for you readers, you can make your own conclusions. The affordability ratio used to be 3x-4x your annual salary, now its acceptable to be 5x-6x. What that means is if you make RM120,000 a year, you should be able to afford a RM600,000 property based on 5x. Any higher you would be shitting bricks in a slowdown or if you lose your job. In fact in Australia, Singapore and HK, the affordability ratio jumps to 8x-10x. This basically means that they at least half their net pay into servicing the mortgage. If you argue on that point alone, then Malaysian property has some space to go up ; )



Anyway, back to the long run price to rent ratio, the most overvalued would be:
1) Australia 61%
2) HK 53%
3) Spain 50%
4) Sweden 39%
4) France 39%
6) Britain 33%

In that measure Singapore is not too expensive, which I would agree. You buy a S$1.5m apartment, you should have no problem renting it out for S$4,500 a month fully furnished or a yield of 3.6%. In KL, you may still get that but man, you have to be lucky to get it rented out at that price.

Property prices and bubbles are not as liquid like stocks. They may not fully correct, they may be able to wait for fundamentals and earnings to catch up if they were lucky. Right now in the high end, everybody is buying everybody's property. We see Singaporeans, Chinese mainland citizens, Indonesians and even HKers buying Malaysian property. Malaysians are also big buyers of Singapore property, make no mistake about it. Chinese citizens have been big buyers everywhere. Until something drastic happens to one or two of these economies, there are probably not going to be too many forced selling, just empty houses and apartments.

The Economist: In recent months several countries have experimented with measures to cool bubbly property markets. Yet since The Economist’s global round-up of housing markets was last published in April, house-price inflation has accelerated in some of the very countries where the authorities have intervened to slow its rise.

Asia has been at the forefront of such interventions. In February Singapore’s government raised down-payment requirements and imposed stamp duties on all residential properties sold within a year of purchase in a bid to curb speculation. Despite these steps prices in the island nation rose by nearly 40% in the year to the end of the second quarter, after a rise of just over 25% in the year to the end of the first quarter. Singapore has overtaken Hong Kong to become the frothiest housing market among those we monitor.



House prices in Australia rose by 20% in the year to the end of the first quarter, faster than the 13.5% recorded in the 12 months to late 2009. More concerning, however, is our analysis of “fair value” in housing, which is based on comparing the current ratio of house prices to rents with its long-term average. By this measure Australian property is the most overvalued of any of the 20 countries we track. A frothy property market was one of the reasons for the Reserve Bank of Australia raising interest rates six times between October and May.

Mish's Global Economic Analysis: In judging Singapore the "frothiest" the Economist is looking at rate of change. I would call Australia the "frothiest" based on valuation. Spain surprised me because I had assumed the economic implosion might have washed more of its bubble out.

However, my friend Bran, who lives in Spain and emails me nearly every day says "If all the unsold property were released at prices that would move the units, 50% is not far off, and it could be more than that. Moreover, 50% isn't even harsh at ground level when you have seen prices go much more than double in a few years."

In Canada, the bubbles are where the most people live. The US is misleading because some markets are hugely overvalued while others are approaching reasonable valuations. Florida has without a doubt crashed and in vast sections of sparsely populated Midwest farmland, the bubble never expanded much in the first place. Thus, averaging out the US (or Canada) is not is not the best way of looking at things.



Addendum:

Mike in Toyko writes

Hi Mish,

Love the blog.

We bought a beautiful house in Tokyo in 2005 directly from the original owner. He had paid $3.5 million dollars for the house when it was new during the peak of the so-called bubble economy in 1989. We bought it from him at the fire sale distressed price of $800,000.

Because we bought it directly from the original owner, we didn't have to pay any sales tax and saved 5% right there.

Well, that's been 5 years ago. This is a fairly posh neighborhood and next door, two dinky brand new homes were built a over year ago that were on the market for about $1.6 million dollars... They didn't sell at all. In fact, I never really saw any people coming to look at them at all.

Yes, Tokyo is expensive, but would you pay $1.6 million dollars for a two-bedrrom house that has no yard or garden and the floor- space is about as big as a typical American two-car garage?

Finally, I heard the real estate company and builders just wanted to get rid of these lots as they continually cost money to keep them "new" and they sold the houses for about $700,000 each.

Maybe Tokyo or Japan's housing prices are 30-some percent undervalued, but you wouldn't guess it by the lack of new home construction and the "For Sale" signs that sit in front of these homes for over a year...

Best,

Mike in Tokyo