Recommending A Stock NOW??!!

I thought I could kick back and relax in HK. I had started to write about this stock Rimbunan Sawit but the markets kinda weaken substantially, so it was saved as a draft. However, Mr. Koon, ze super-investor, emailed me with his write up about Rimbunan Sawit - go figure!



My selling catalyst was going to be "why do you think IOI Corp got out of buying the plantation land from Dutaland?". IOI Corp probably figured that they were going to end up paying RM69,700 per ha if they did the deal. IOI Corp probably knew how "valuable and attractive Rimbunan Sawit was" but probably couldn't accumulate a significant stake or takeover the company. Sometimes, you don't have to control everything when you see value ... because buying Rimbunan Sawit now means pricing Rimbunan Sawit's plantation at just RM21,800 per ha. ... Timing wise, after the recent corporate exercise with RM400m additional funds to invest, Rimbunan Sawit now have a very good volume trend, maybe good to collect a substantive stake by shrewder investors instead of buying Dutaland's assets.


Math is math, you only get that kind of values if its was deep in the Papua New Guinea jungle with no excess to roads or ports!!! So there you, why so gung-ho looking at a stock to buy NOW ... because:
Dutaland RM69,700 per ha
United Plantations RM81,400 per ha
Rimbunan Sawit RM21,800 per ha


Target price, gawd, you'd be looking pretty holding this till it doubles at least!


Still not convinced, well have a read of Mr. Koon's write up, which I received yesterday: 

R. Sawit: In all my life, I have never been surer of making money than now in buying of R Sawit.

I have studied almost all the plantation stocks and in my opinion R. Sawit is the cheapest in terms of NTA and its profit growth prospect in the next few years. You can read the details from its right issues prospectus. If you have bought one share at Rm 2.28 before the X rights, you could subscribe for three rights at 80 cents each. 

As a result, the total number of issued shares is four times bigger and your average cost would be RM 1.17. Moreover, you would be given one bonus share for every one share you own. As a result the total issued shares is 1308 million. 

Since the rights issues and the bonus issues were listed on 9^th Nov, the daily volume traded has increased to a level that has not seen before. It closed at RM 0.83 on 9^th Nov. with an increase of 0.83X2-1.17= 49 cents.

The increased volume traded daily together with the rapid increase in the share price indicates many Fund Managers are now buying as if tomorrow is too late to buy.

As you know, I do not or very seldom recommend people to buy any share. But in this case, I am doing it because I strongly believe this share is the cheapest plantation company in terms of NTA and profit growth prospect in the next few years which is the single most important criterion in share selection.

Most of the palm trees are below 10 years old and their plan to continue planting on their remaining about 23,545 ha in the next 3 years. Imagine the increase value of this additional planted area?  

Moreover, unlike any other industry, the profit margin- selling price minus cost has been more than 100% in the last several years for the oil palm plantation. For example,  the average selling CPO price for this year should be about Rm 3,000 and the production cost is about Rm 1,300 per ton..

In fact I always have a significant portion of my investment on plantation stocks because the palm trees will always grow and the land will always grow in value. Moreover the demand for palm oil will always grow due to the population and economic growth in China and India, our two most important buyers. In actual fact, the financial difficulties in USA and Europe have little effect on this business. Which business can give you more than 100% profit margin?

The share closed at Rm 0.83 on 9^th Nov 2011. Its market capitalisation = Rm 0.83 X 1308 million issued shares= Rm1086 million.

Total planted acreage is 49,300 ha. The cost per ha is 108672 million divided by 49,300 = Rm 21,756. 

IOI announces about 3 months ago that they are buying about 11,900 ha of oil palm plantation from Dutaland Bhd for Rm 830 million cash = Rm 69,740 per ha.

For Rm 830 m cash you can buy 77% of the whole company of R Sawit Bhd which have just received about Rm 400 million cash from the right issues.

United Plantation total issued shares is 208.13 million shares X Rm 17.80 = Rm 3,705            million market capitalisation. According to its annual 2010 report it has 45,494 ha planted that is Rm 3,705 million divided by 45,494 ha= Rm 81,439 per ha.

R Sawit is selling only at Rm 21,756 per ha.

Koon Yew Yin

10^th Nov 2011 

NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

Applying Oneself In Life

We all should strive to be "successful" in all aspects of life. Too often we only focus on wealth and career. For our intents and purposes, lets look at wealth, career and money for now. We all have heard of the mantras and the sayings of wise people. Most are just crap being regurgitated again and again.



Here are a few better ones, I think:

"You can get everything in life you want, if you will just help enough other people get what they want."

There is a positive side to the saying as well as a negative side. The positive is that we do not only look at what we want, but rather on what others want. It could be our potential clients, our colleagues, our bosses, etc. ... by being instrumental in helping other achieve their objectives, you will indirectly get the returns and benefits accruing back to you. The negative is to regard this mantra pragmatically - i.e. you will only get what you want if you do A, B, C... which may still get you what you desire but the motive on your part will be questionable. Now, many of you will think there is no difference as long as you get what you want, but to me your underlying motives are so much more important for personal enrichment. If your heart is in the right place, you will try to "help others", but even if nothing comes out of it, you are not too disturbed. If your motives are pragmatic, the end result will eat at you, and even when you achieve success - will you smirk that you were smarter than the rest? If you have the right attitude, you will feel that you have been blessed and would not think its all due to your own self. If you feel blessed with success that comes your way, you will also know that you are just a steward of monetary riches, and you will feel the need to do your part to enrich the lives of others.



"Successful people are prepared to do for a short time what others won't, so that they can do for the rest of their lives what others can't."

Herein lies the key word, some may call it execution ability. I have another word for this, its called "focus". Whenever we come across issues, roadblocks, events, targets, deadlines, delivery of performance, KPIs, etc.. many will not be able to execute well.

Our government big projects have often been labeled as brilliant in planning, projections and power point presentations, but somehow we lack the follow through to execute them within the time stated or within the budget specified. Its like we know our ABCs but we kinda skip merrily through the EFGHIJKLs ... and then wonder why we never get to Z but always end up with URSTs. The simple explanantion is that the ABCs are fun to do and thats where the big money is. The EFGHIJKLs are left to the workers who may not be incentivised to get to Z. Maybe the key is to make sure the bulk of the rewards will only be when they get to Z.

Anyway, I digress, back to focus. Sometimes we get torn in 10 different directions. We need to focus on the key issues, solve them or delegate them (with proper monitoring and empowering), revisit continually, change or modify if necessary till its done. If you look at the very successful people, they will focus intently to solve a particular issue or problem or crisis or capitalise on the opportunity. Those who do not will wonder why they are not more successful or what their secret is.


"Great minds discuss ideas, mediocre minds discuss events, small minds discuss people."

This is a very telling saying, and you can find out where a person is by what they talk about all the time. Its gossip, it mindless chatter, its idle stuff, its basically useless ... a little bit is OK but when its mostly what you put your brainpower to, we all know what comes out of it... nothing much. Picking on what topics to discuss or reflect show me how a person's mind is working. Rise above the events and issues and take a big picture view, be wary of the subsequent chain of events.

"Don't judge each day by the harvest you reap but by the seeds you plant."

Everyday you plant seeds whether you realise that you are doing it or not. You can be planting seeds of confidence, seeds of integrity, or you could be planting seeds of discontent and discordance. You are building a resume of what you are doing be it good or bad. In addition the seeds also spread to those around you. In a way it inculcates a culture, a mindset and a sense of expectations. I have another personal saying that I hold with me:

"Bloom where you are planted."

Try no to question why you are where you are, but what you do with where you are at. Live your life well, keep an eye to be a "success" in all areas of your life, be a great son or daughter, be a great employee, be a great boss, be a great parent or grandparent, be always in touch with your spiritual side ... and take time time to enjoy life while doing all that.

Some Comments About Hot Stocks

So we now have the debacle on Sime Darby, causing the stock to lose 40 sen. Censuring the CEO is a good move by the board, but the Bakun thing has been around longer than his tenure. The board also has to shoulder some responsibility for not asking for better risk controls years earlier, this did not happen overnight. Are the losses capped? Do we have the full picture? I don't think the board has the full picture, but the moment they do, they should tell all to investors, otherwise the stock will keep falling.



All things being equal the division is only a small part of their revenue and profit base, hence it should be good pickings should it dip to RM7.60-7.80.

As for Transmile, even if Pos Malaysia decides to buy over, its not going to solve Transmile balance sheet. Its NTA is less than 10 sen, go figure. Avoid.

Ascot and Berjaya Group. The license was given and taken back 2 or 3 times already. Why is this time any different? Previously it was just an off course betting for horse racing. This is more for sports betting. One can claim that the deal looks good for B Group because Vincent Tan is already guaranteeing the bulk of its profits. It looks good on paper but the thing should deliver first. There will be plenty of time to buy then. What is the rush?

Tebrau and the Iskandar stocks look like gearing for a move. They did a huge conference in Singapore recently which was overbooked by 3x. News of more signups and project launches in the works. Caveat emptor though.

Unisem may have reached a peak above RM3.00 judging from the newsflow of quarterly earnings from similar industry players in the US. Take profits.

Though I hammer the need for Proton to exists, but as a stock, if it succeeds in a joint venture, will raise fortunes for Proton to above RM6.00. Looks likely to have a wave of positive newsflow.

NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.