Showing posts with label Fala Chen Fat Lai. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fala Chen Fat Lai. Show all posts

I Don't Mention This Person Often, Now You Know Why

From Asia Sentinel:

Mahathir's Disastrous Financial SpeculationPDFPrintE-mail
Written by Our Correspondent   
MONDAY, 05 MARCH 2012
 
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photo credit: Financetwitter.com
A murky and embarrassing case is closed, hiding top government officials’ involvement
Sometime over the next few days, a court in Kuala Lumpur will put the finishing touches to an agreement that allows Tajudin Ramli, the former head of Malaysian Airline System, not only to walk away from charges that he had  looted the airline of tens of millions of US dollars but with an RM580 million (US$293.2 million) out-of-court settlement from the government.

It appears to be a settlement that the government would rather keep to itself. At the heart of the agreement with Tajudin is a convoluted story that began as long ago as the 1980s when Malaysia’s central bank, Bank Negara Malaysia, at the urging of then-Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, began speculating aggressively in global foreign exchange markets, at one time running up exposure rumored to be in the region of RM270 billion -- three times the country’s gross domestic product and more than five times its foreign reserves at the time. 
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Eventually, playing with the big boys came home to roost. In 1992 and 1993, Mahathir became convinced he could make billions of ringgit by taking advantage of a British recession, rising unemployment and a decision by the British government to float the pound sterling free of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

Mahathir ordered Bank Negara to buy vast amounts of pounds sterling on the theory that the British currency would appreciate once it floated. However, in what has been described as the greatest currency trade ever made, the financier and currency wizard George Soros’s Quantum hedge fund established short positions, borrowing in pounds and investing in Deutschemark-denominated assets as well as using options and futures positions.

In all, Soros’s positions alone ac counted for a gargantuan US$10 billion. Many other investors, sensing Quantum was in for the kill, soon followed, putting strenuous downward pressure on the pound. The collapse was inevitable. Quantum walked away with US$1 billion in a single day, earning Mahathir’s eternal enmity and earning Soros the title “the man who broke the Bank of England.”
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Mahathir and Bank Negara, on the other hand, walked away with a US$4 billion loss, followed by another US$2.2 billion loss in 1993, the total equivalent of RM15.5 billion. Although the disastrous trades destroyed the entire capital base of Bank Negara, after first denying it had taken place, the then-Finance Minister Anwar Ibrahim repeatedly reassured parliament that the losses were only “paper losses” and, now that he is Opposition Leader and head of the Pakatan Rakyat opposition coalition, has managed to skate free of the controversy.

Eventually, the Finance Ministry had to recapitalize the central bank, almost unheard of for any government anywhere. It is reliably estimated that Bank Negara lost as much as US$30 billion in this and other disastrous currency trades, costing the head of the central bank and his currency trader deputy their jobs.

It was at one with Mahathir’s unfortunate penchant for believing he could beat the global financial system in other ways. In the early 1980s, at his behest the Malaysian government attempted to corner the tin market through Maminco Sdn Bhd, a dummy company set up to buy tin futures and physical tin to push up prices on the London Tin Market. Malaysia at that point was producing 31 percent of the world’s tin.

However, the rising prices as a result of Malaysia’s action caused miners to increase production in the other 69 percent of the tin world. At the same time the US government released its tin stockpile. The price collapsed, costing Malaysia RM1.6 billon with the subsequent low prices wrecking Malaysia’s tin industry. Mahathir has repeatedly railed against western governments for rigging the rules against him.

The attempt to corner the tin market and the subsequent loss established an interesting precedent in terms of what would take place with the speculation in the pound sterling. Rather than acknowledge the losses in the tin speculation, the government set up another dummy company called Makuwasa Sdn Bhd, creating new shares supposedly reserved for ethnic Malays which were allocated to the Employee Provident Fund, the country’s retirement fund for private and public workers. The plan was to sell these cheaply acquired shares, supposedly reserved for poor bumis, at market price for a profit to cover Maminco’s losses. Finally, in 1986, Mahathir was forced to admit that Makuwasa was created to recoup the government’s losses from the Maminco debacle and to repay loans to Bank Bumiputra.
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Fast forward to today and the out-of-court settlement between several government-linked companies and Tajudin Ramli, in which the government quietly cancelled Tajudin’s debt of RM840 million. It is believed to be the biggest such sum awarded in Malaysian history.

In 1994, according to affidavits that Tajudin filed in court he bought 32 percent of the shares of the government-controlled Malaysian Airline System at a price of RM8.00 at Mahathir’s behest – while the shares were trading at RM3.30 – and became executive chairman using funds from government-linked companies. According his allegations, the idea was to use the “profit” off the share sale to cover as much as possible of the forex losses by Bank Negara from Mahathir’s currency speculation.

When Tajudin took control of MAS in 1994 through his company, Naluri Bhd, MAS had a cash reserve in excess of RM600 million. Seven years later, in 2001, when the government bought back MAS for RM8 a share, the state-owned airline had accumulated losses in excess of RM8 billion. The government bought back an almost bankrupt airline for the same price that it sold to Tajudin.

In the welter of lawsuits and countersuits that eventually followed, including a RM13.46 billion statement of claim that Tajudini brought against a government-linked company involved in the mess, he alleged in his affidavit that it was Mahathir who had instructed him to acquire the stake to bail out Bank Negara.

Like Mahathir, the then 49-year-old Tajudin was a native of Alor Setar in Kedah state. He was regarded as a shining example of the bumi businessman that Mahathir wanted to foster to run the country and take the commanding heights of the economy back from the ethnic Chinese.

Unfortunately, according to a long list of whistle-blowers within the airline, he was also involved in looting it of tens of millions of dollars and very nearly putting it into bankruptcy before the government buyback. When officials not connected to the United Malays National Organization recommended prosecution, they came under fire that nearly ruined their careers and almost put them in jail.

According to allegations in documents made public in August of 2010, Tajudin colluded with three other MAS officers and directors through two nominee companies, one in Singapore and the other in Hong Kong, to establish a company called Advanced Cargo Logistics GmbH Germany, at Hahn Airport in Frankfurt, Germany, to provide ground-handling services for MAS.

According to a report filed in March 2007 to then-Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi by Ramli Yusuff, the director of Malaysia's Commercial Crime Investigation Department and an official who seems to have been singularly incorruptible, "Tan Sri Tajudin Ramli was in control of MAS from 1994 to 2001. When he left MAS in 2001, MAS had accumulated losses in excess of RM8 billion (US$2.54 billion). Many projects were made under very suspicious circumstances."

Ramli Yusuff’s report indicated a wide range of abuses that said Tajudin’s family was deeply involved in setting up shell companies to siphon off money from MAS ancillary operations. But instead of preferring charges against Tajudin, the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) went after the inspecting officer, Ramli Yusuff for allegedly not declaring his assets, for misusing a police airplane, and abusing his power as a police officer, all of which were convincingly refuted.

Ramli, however, wasn't the only one to go before the courts. His lawyer, Rosli Dahlan, who was also the lawyer for the airline itself, prepared Ramli's defense against the criminal charges only to be arrested on charges of collaborating with Ramli. At one point, on a pretext that Rosli had mishandled a letter from the MACC, police officers invaded Rosli's office, arrested and handcuffed him, then kept him in a cell overnight, refusing him medical treatment for injuries to his wrists from the handcuffs. They also refused his request to file a report against the arresting officers.

Rosli went to a court especially created to handle MACC cases, only to have the case fizzle out when a prosecutor announced that neither Rosli nor Ramli had been charged for corruption, having been summarily acquitted without having to put on a defense.

For his part, Rosli has charged that the MACC, Bank Negara, the government of Malaysia and the three major newspapers owned by the political parties had conspired with those in power to damage him for his attempts to defend Ramli. 
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And for his part, Tan Sri Tajudin Ramli remains uninvestigated and uncharged, and a continuing example of bumiputera power at the top of Malaysia's political and social structure, apparently RM580 million richer.

It also brings into question Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak’s March 30, 2010, statement that the government "can no longer tolerate practices that support the behavior of rent-seeking and patronage, which have long tarnished the altruistic aims of the New Economic Policy. Inclusiveness, where all Malaysians contribute and benefit from economic growth - must be a fundamental element of any new economic approach."

PER 2.2x, P/B 0.3x, Gearing 16%

How do you fancy a stock trading at 2.2x earnings this year and 2.5x earnings next year? No, its not a China shoe maker. Paid up just 348.4m shares. Just announced a new very credible CEO yesterday. Pays dividend of 1.5 sen. Has  Price/Book value of 0.3x. Gearing at 16%.



2010 saw revenue hitting RM346.9m and a net profit of RM21.9m. This year should be RM462m and net profit of RM72.5m. Yes, its MALTON.


Malton released a strong set of 4QFY11 results which came in ahead of our expectations due to higher than expected billings at the property development and construction divisions.  During the year, Malton recognised en bloc sales for an office tower at V Square, and contributions from a re-engineering project under the construction division for the completed and fully-sold Amaya Saujana condominium.


Things cannot be so nice and wonderful and expect no one to spot it. There must be some inherent reasons for the gross mis-valuation. Maybe something we don't know yet. In all likelihood, its probably the recent capital exercise. On 30 Dec 2010, Malton proposed a renounceable rights issue of up to RM156.57m nominal value 7-year 6% redeemable convertible secured loan stocks (RCSLS) at 100% of its nominal value, together with up to 156.57m free detachable new warrants and up to 78.28m new ordinary shares of RM1.00 each in Malton (bonus shares) attached on the basis of RM2.00 nominal value of RCSLS together with two warrants and one bonus share for every five Malton shares held.
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The group also proposed an exemption for Malton and parties acting in concert from the obligation to undertake a mandatory take-over offer for the remaining Malton shares and convertible securities not already held by them after the proposed rights issue. The rights issue is to raise funds for working capital and possible strategic acquisitions, investments and business expansion. The proposal was completed with the listing and quotation of the RCSLS, warrants and bonus shares on 8 Jul 2011.


Note that the whole exercise was completed in July 2011, and we all know how difficult the markets had been since then. If the controlling shareholders does not have sufficient funds to mop up the "new and free shares", you'd see a mini collapse. I looked at every angle, there isn't anything seemingly sinister, just the sentiment was not right.


Malton’s revenue and profit in FY12F-13F are expected to be supported by total unbilled sales from existing property development projects of around RM250-300m currently, as well as billings from the RM175m Jaya Shopping Centre construction project.


In addition to existing projects, new launches in the pipeline include:
o Ukay Springs initial phase, Ampang semi-detached and bungalow houses (GDV of RM120m,
targeting launch in end FY2011);
o Nova Saujana serviced apartments (GDV of RM320m, targeting launch in end FY2011);
o Seri Kembangan serviced apartments (GDV of RM180m, targeting launch in end FY2011);
o Sungai Buloh commercial development (GDV of RM500m, targeting launch in early FY2012);
o Bukit Rimau semi-detached and bungalow houses (GDV of RM15m); and
o Cantonment Road, Penang high-end duplex condominiums (GDV of RM50m, targeting launch in
early FY2012).


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How to find a fair value, not much debt, 0.3x book ... even with the slightly downgraded property sector, Malton looks to be a very safe bet with a great cushion. First target is to match its 52 week high of 86 sen.


If the owners were smart, they'd be looking to take this private, I am sure with a more stable environment, private equity players would be lining up to offer full funding. Failing which, I am sure there are other vultures who will come in and try to take the owners out soon.



 Pavilion REIT, part-owned by the Qatar Investment Authority, plans to sell units on Malaysia’s stock exchange as early as next month through a property trust, said two people with knowledge of the matter.
The company, which owns the Pavilion shopping, residential and office project in Kuala Lumpur, aims to raise about 800 million ringgit ($255 million), said the people, who declined to be identified as the information is private. The size of the initial public offering may rise to as much as 1 billion ringgit depending on demand, one of the people said.
At 800 million ringgit, the Pavilion IPO would be Malaysia’s fourth-biggest share sale this year, after offerings by Bumi Armada Bhd., UOA Development Bhd. and MSM Malaysia Bhd. Companies canceled or postponed $8.9 billion of IPOs around the world in the third quarter as stocks plunged, putting the market on track to set a record for pulled deals.
Fitness First Ltd., which had sought to list in Singapore by the end of this year, is among those delaying IPO plans, people with knowledge of the matter said this month.
Pavilion is owned by Malton Bhd. Chairman Desmond Lim Siew Choon and his wife, together with Qatar Investment Authority. Its flagship development comprises a 1.4 million square-foot retail mall with 450 outlets, plus one office building and two residential towers in Kuala Lumpur’s city center, according to Malton’s website.
This would be Malaysia’s third-largest listed property trust at 800 million ringgit. Sunway Real Estate Investment Trust raised about 1.5 billion ringgit last year in the Southeast Asian’s biggest public offering by a trust.
CIMB Group Holdings Bhd., Malayan Banking Bhd. and Credit Suisse Group AG are managing the offering, the people said.



New CEO effective yesterday is Chia Lui Meng. He joined Hiap Aik Construction Berhad in September 1995 as General Manager. In June 1997, he joined United Malayan Land Bhd as General Manager rising to the position of PA to MD & Group CEO before leaving in March 2008. He joined Viet Hung Urban Development & Investment J.S.C Land Bhd as Chief Operating Officer and was based in Hanoi, Vietnam until March 2009. From May 2009 till prior to joining Malton Berhad, he was attached with Naza TTDI Sdn Bhd as Director and Advisor to Group MD.

NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

Petra Perdana Looked Very Interesting

Sometimes when your fundamentals are not so rosy, you can still be attractive provided you are in the right sector. Petra Perdana (7108) is such a counter. The share desperately needs a strong and influential shareholder, and the pick up in volume and share price over the past week looked very persuasive.

The bad parts: Petra Perdana reported a RM70.3m core net loss for FY10 (vs RM13.7m core net profit in FY09) due to lower vessels utilisation, decrease in charter rates, higher mobilisation cost and increase in lease rental due to 7 new deliveries of vessels in 2010, impairment losses on receivables and impairment loss on property, plant and equipment. The company also reported a lower revenue (-57.9% yoy) because of the divestment of Petra Energy in December 2009. FY10 net loss of RM71.5m was steeper than market expectation of RM45.5m; core net loss of RM70.3m came in below our expectation of RM64.2m due to lower-than-expected contributions from Petra Energy arising from the cost overruns in its Kemang project.

In view of the anticipated increase in Malaysia and regional oil & gas exploration and production activities, the potential is strong that their vessel utilisation rates and charter rates are set to recover slowly in 2Q-3QFY11. 5 out of Petra’s 15 new vessels are currently bidding for contracts, while most of its 8 older vessels are currently on standby mode.

M&A opportunity and/or potential strategic tie-up with other oil & gas companies will lift investor interest in the stock and along with that a re-rating in its share price. Indications are very strong that there will be a new controlling shareholder soon. Its their strategic assets which will complement a much bigger boy in the industry.

http://www.hotcute.cn/wp-content/gallery/Sex%20TVB%20actress%20Fala%20Chen/2007920142712534386096058.jpg

Stock Data
Issued shares (m) 450.1
Mkt cap (RMm) 407.4
Avg daily vol - 6mth (m) 6.04
52-wk range (RM) 0.74 – 1.59
Est free float 77%
NTA per share (RM) 1.06
P/NTA (x) 0.85

Major Shareholders: (%)
Nam Cheong Dockyard 9.1
Lembaga Tabung Haji 9.2
Amanah Saham Wawasan 2020 5.6
Koh Poh Wat 5.0

Looking for RM1.35 ...

NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

Why Japan's Debt Is A Non-Issue

On January 27, 2011, S&P lowered Japan's long-term sovereign debt rating for the first time in nine years to AA- from AA. According to S&P, the government "lacks a coherent strategy" to tackle Japan's debt load, which could lead government debt ratios to peak only in the mid-2020s. Japan's gross-public-debt-to-GDP ratio, which was 189.3% in 2009, is the highest among developed economies.

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Though a sovereign debt crisis like that of Greece is not imminent, without increasing the national tax burden—which is relatively low compared to other major economies—Japan will not be able to sustain public spending without incurring more debt. Japan's aging population and underfunded pensions exacerbate this burden. Issuing more debt to finance public expenditures is easier for Japan compared to other European countries with high debt because Japan benefits from low debt-servicing costs in part due to chronic deflation. Unlike Greece, Japan maintains a current account surplus and a net foreign asset position. Locals hold around 95% of Japan's debt, whereas foreigners hold more than three-quarters of Greece's debt.

Unless proposed expenditures are minimized, Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s administration will struggle to fund its 2011 budget without reneging on its JPY44-trillion cap on new bond issuance. Tax revenue will fall alongside corporate profits and personal income. Since Kan’s aggressive advocacy of a consumption tax hike cost his party the Upper House, plans for the hike are likely to be shelved. A corporate tax cut remains under consideration, but budget deficits will be hard to shake off without a corresponding increase in revenue elsewhere.


S&P estimated (according to its January 27, 2011, note "Ratings On Japan Lowered To 'AA-'; Outlook Stable") that Japan's government fiscal deficits will decline from an estimated 9.1% of GDP in FY2011 (ending March 31, 2011) to 8.0% in FY2013. Unless the government undertakes a fiscal consolidation program, S&P does not foresee Japan achieving a primary external balance before 2020.


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Japan's Cabinet Office estimated that the primary fiscal deficit, which excludes debt-servicing costs, will total JPY21.7 trillion in FY2015, 4.2% of GDP. In FY2020, Japan is estimated to post a primary budget deficit of JPY23.2 trillion, or 4.2% of nominal GDP. If real GDP grows more than 2% each year, Japan's primary balance deficit would be 3.2% of nominal GDP in FY2015 and 2.5% in FY2020.

The OECD forecasts that Japan's gross public debt will exceed 200% of GDP in 2011. In order to halve the primary budget deficit by 2015, the OECD maintains that additional tax revenue need to be generated and that the BoJ should "should implement more ambitious quantitative easing measures to relax monetary conditions in the face of entrenched deflation and maintain such policies until underlying inflation is significantly positive."

Japan’s long-term public debt has risen to JPY862 trillion (US$9.26 trillion), nearly 200% of the nation’s 2009 gross domestic product. Japan’s debt was 189.3% of GDP in 2009 and is projected to grow to 204.3 % in 2011.On January 18, 2011, credit-default swaps (CDS) used to protect payment of Japanese government debt, hit a six-month high and climbed to 86.49 bps. This means that it costs $86,490 to insure $10 million in Japanese debt. CDS for U.S. debt were 49.85 bp.




Why The Debt Is "Manageable"

The financing of Japan’s public sector debt is currently enjoying an extremely virtuous confluence of events—the strong home bias of domestic investors, ample domestic savings, and modest deflation. As long as these persist, financing the public sector debt should not be problematic...In the near term, it seems likely that the three conditions that have eased the financing of Japan’s public debt will persist.

While JGB market participants believe Japan occupies the worst fiscal position in the world, the nation's fiscal problems can still be rectified with tax hikes. The basis for this optimism appears to lie in Japan's low social contribution rate, one of the lowest in the world at 39%. A social contribution rate of 52.3%, a rate on par with European nations, would be sufficient to cover recent fiscal deficits.

In addition, the JGB market seems to have concluded that the Japanese government can fiscally consolidate because the there is room to raise the consumption tax rate, currently the lowest in the world at 5%.

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Despite the high level of government indebtedness, the budgetary burden of servicing debt interest is not especially high as a share of GDP and revenue, especially once account is taken of the relatively low tax/GDP ratio. This reflects the fact that interest rates on government borrowing remain low in nominal and real terms.

Currency and deposits make up over 55% of assets for Japanese households. Compared to just 14.3% in America. This represents about US$8.9 trillion in savings that could potentially be mobilized to support the Japanese government debt. Americans by contrast, hold a far greater amount of their wealth in the stock market. U.S. households have over 30% of their assets in shares and equities. As opposed to just 6.6% in Japan. Japanese household savings are over 100% of outstanding government debt. With the American government now sitting $12.7 trillion in the red, household savings are only at 50% of debt.


Japan is better placed than either the U.S. or the UK. This is partly because the debt problem is frequently overstated, as net debt is only about half the gross level, but also because the switch from investment, financed by untaxed depreciation, into incomes and spending which are taxed twice, will mean that tax revenue should rise rapidly with recovery.

The Japanese private sector remains in a position of net creditor, offsetting the government's position as a borrower, not to mention that more than 95% of Japanese debt is still held by Japanese investors.
Unless the private Japanese investors switches out of the deposits, or dumps the yen in favour of other currencies, or start selling bonds in droves - I do not see this being a grave issue. Its not good but its not catastrophic.

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Thats the sad part, Japan sorely needs a huge whack on the head for them to reform their economy and finances, but that is not likely to happen. So the Japanese economy will meander like a an old man but not showing any signs of dying anytime soon.


How Do I 'Bear' Thee ... Let Me Count The Ways



Let's look at the current issues scaring the equity markets:

a) Stronger USD, lower commodity prices - Technically, we all want lower commodity prices, but somehow that does not work so well in equity markets. They seem to favour higher commodity prices so that bullish equity markets could continue. Its a matter of where we are in the recovery, as we have bottomed, any hike in commodity prices is deemed as heightened demand and vice versa. When economic activity is bubbling, lower commodity prices is welcomed as that reduces inflationary expectations and help improve margins. Yes, its investing is a strange world. Anyway, the lower commodity prices is not really a reflection of lower demand but rather a carry trade play on the USD. It is more a factor of where USD is headed which causes commodity prices to be inversely correlated. More importantly, a strong USD send shivers to investors because of heightened risk aversion among investors.

b) China's Applying Brakes - The fact that China has asked banks to stop or reduce bank lending in January naturally caused some to exit the markets. You cannot win on this. Everybody talks about how China is allowing a too easy monetary policy, and when they do something about it, markets get nervous. Its a temporary nervousness rather than a major sell off in the making. By acting now, that is preserving the longevity of the bull run, not putting an end to it.

c) Obama's New Medicine Bag - Attempts to regulate banks more closely will be OK and welcomed. Attempts to stop or tax proprietary trading is bad but not debilitating so. Even so, it will take a whole lot more to even pass any of the regulations. I would like to see caps on leverage on capital deployed by financial firms. Its the uncertainty that is rocking the markets as I believe most of the additional measures should be welcomed for the longer term.

d) Bernanke's Confirmation - This is so unnecessary, just go ahead and confirm, don't drag it out. Will be confirmed as there are no better visible candidates, and Zeti's not an American.

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e) Sovereign Credit Rumbles - Deteriorating public finances of some eurozone countries such as Greece , and you can throw in the UK, have sent shivers on advanced nations' debt rating situation (read Black Swan #1 Japan posting). The euro has fallen 3% over the last 2 weeks, and the pound has tumbled following weak GDP figures yesterday.

f) Big company earnings from the US have come in at or above expectations but markets are ignoring all that for the time being. However, these data flows cannot and should not be ignored as it grounds the undertone that we are in a healthy equity market phase rather than an over-exuberant one.

Dangers of tightening too soon - not happening in the US, UK or EU. Even in China's case its an acceptable effort to rein in liquidity velocity there now. I have never seen a meaningful correction (i.e. more than 20%) happening while interest rates are at near record low levels everywhere. This is more a period of nervousness to reassess the overall parameters, and after a while we all will realise that interest rates are still low, things are mostly still recovering with pockets of difficulties in various countries, but liquidity is still seeking a place for better returns, back into the markets we go.

Technically HK has had a 10% correction already from its peak. Brazil is off 7% already from its peak. As all markets have gained more than 50%-100% over the last 12 months, its only fair that a 5%-10% correction be allowed for digestion purposes, even at a buffet you have stop a while before gorging yourself again and again.

Obama's state of the union address tonight following Bernanke's likely confirmation should set a new path uptrend again, provided Obama's address does not whack on taxes and the banks too debilitatingly.


p/s photos: Fala Chen Fat Lai

Making Hedge Funds Simpler (Where's My Cut?)

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Marshall Wace LLP, the London-based hedge-fund manager overseeing $4 billion in assets, returned 26 percent with its Japan-focused hedge fund this year by tapping ideas from 150 equity salespeople from outside the firm.

The Marshall Wace TOPS Japan Fund's gains contrasts with the Topix index’s 2.3 percent drop this year through November, the worst performing benchmark among developed nations this year. The long-short equity strategy fund invested in about 200 Japanese stocks out of 1,000 that trade more than $1 million a day.

The company introduced its strategy first in Europe in 2002, employing a computer-based poll of brokerage salespeople to construct the portfolios based on the top idea pitches. The strategy was introduced in the U.S. in 2005 and Asia in 2006.

“What we do with that information is our crown jewel. Japan is clearly a difficult market, but there is a lot of scope here to be successful. If you think you’re a stock picker, Japan is a great place to pick stocks.”

Marshall Wace, founded in 1997 by Paul Marshall and Ian Wace, has invested about $250 million in Japan with its TOPS strategy. Anderson, 40, started the firm’s Asian office in Hong Kong in 2006. The firm polls institutional salespeople in Tokyo, London and New York from 24 brokerages including Nomura Holdings, UBS AG and smaller firms such as Tachibana Securities Co. and Ichiyoshi Securities.


The asset manager gets about 500 ideas a day in Asia for investments. In return, the brokerages get a commission based on the performance of individual salespeople’s picks. The firm’s Japan fund trades stock worth about 2.8 times its own size every month, compared with 2 to 2.5 times for its Asia funds and 1 to 1.5 times for its funds in Europe. Commissions rise with higher volume.

Japan’s lack of consolidation across industries makes it easier to find liquid stocks, giving the market more equities with over $1 million worth of trade a day. The 1,000 stocks a day with that trading volume in Japan is more than all of Europe’s markets can provide.

To diversify and limit risk and control liquidity, no single stock is more than 3 percent of a fund’s net asset value and positions between long and short bets are kept “rather neutral”. In a short sale, a trader borrows stock and sells it in the hope of buying back cheaply later.

Geographic Strategies

The fund’s investors can trade in and out of the portfolio on monthly basis, while the portfolio itself can be extinguished within one trading day. The direction of the Japanese market in 2010 hinges on what the Bank of Japan will do after the central bank this week announced a 10 trillion yen ($113 billion) credit program to expand lending and curb the rising yen’s effect on exporters.



p/s photos: Fala Chen

Grooming & Style Tips For Executives


Impressions and how you present yourself are very important for an executive. In a world where first impressions are made in the first 3 to 6 seconds and 70% of that first impression is made with the eyes, the importance of being self assured and looking good has never been so vital. It indicates professionalism and how serious you regard what you do. I see too many executives who will just put on whatever they have with no serious thought on what image they present to their colleagues, superiors and clients. Some might argue that its the performance of the executive that counts. Yes, sure that is true, but business is also about branding and how you represent your company. That is why certain companies will always give a senior executive a certain type of executive car when they reach a certain level - its not really a perk, its there to ensure that this RM20,000 a month executive does not drive to work in a Proton Iswara - there are a host of issues to consider. Of course if you are an entrepreneur and is worth millions, no one will care how you dress, hence you don't need to care.

1) Bespoke / Tailor made vs Off the rack - Always the former. I know many will think they can just grab a shirt of the rack and they fit - really??? They only kinda fit, trust me. How the shirt hangs on your shoulders is critical, just 1 inch off and it will be noticeable. Everybody's arm's length are different, many of us have one which is slightly longer than the other. How the shirt feels around the chest or how the shirt looks when you raise your arms are the defining reasons why you need them to be tailor made. Neck size is critical as well and I always see some struggling to tie their ties as it may be too tight or too loose. One more important aspect is the collar, is it a flared collar or a closed off collar - how a collar shapes in the end determine how much of your tie knot is showing in the end. Many people make the mistake of wearing shirts with a wide V thus making even a good tie look bad. Make your shirts with a narrow V, it makes all ties look much better, trust me. You don't have to invest in dozens of shirts - at the end of the day, just 7-10 good shirts will do. If budget is a problem, promise yourself a very good tailor made shirt every 3 months (RM300-RM500 pp), by the end of one year you would have 4 good shirts, by the second year you will have a good closet. Keep doing that and its not a very expensive way to dress properly for an executive. A final reason for having bespoke shirts is the material quality. It is very bad to see executives wearing shirts with the thinnest fabrics, the ones you can see the guy's nipples, guys cannot get away with that unless you are girls.


2) Sweat stains / odour - Almost self explanatory. Guys who sweats a lot, you should know what to do, get a good spray deodorant. Then at least don't try to wear shirts where their colours will show sweat stains very clearly (e.g. light blue and sweat stains contrast beautifully and clearly). The other thing is when clothes smells of odour because its not properly dry enough or has not been dried in the sun - that defeats everything, you might as well come to work in a Pagoda white singlet cause that has the same effect. Make sure your clothes are properly dry, preferably in the sun, inside and out. Another tip is to put in boxes of dehumidifiers in your closet, they will soak up moisture from your clothes. If one box is not enough, put in two for better effect - oh yeah, never put mothballs in the closet, you don't want your clothes to smell like that.

3) Ties - Learn how to tie ties well. There are basically two ways, half knot or full knot. Depending on the fabric, usually you do not tie the full knot as the thing will look like a bunched up cauliflower, unless its a thinner fabric. A half knot is good enough, and learn to create a dimpled middle in your tie for better effect. Have at least 3 or 4 good solid colour ties. Solid colours mean all black, all grey, all blue, etc... Its increasingly difficult to carry off fancy designs. Solid colour ties makes it clean and sharp to match with striped shirts. Never try to matched striped shirts with ties that are heavily patterned. Stick to solid colours or the classic striped ties. These never go out of style and it gives an air of conservatism and coolness. Fancy multi patterned ties always shouts and basically tries too hard. How long you tie your ties is a dead giveaway to your sense of style and decorum. Ties should always just cover your belt buckle. Never, never wear ties that does not reach your trousers' top.

4) Double-cuffs - Its now more acceptable and trendy to wear double-cuff shirts. Just beware of the cuffs you are using. Double-cuffs used to be for tuxedos wear, but now its a lot more common. Hence many of those cuff links that are very classic, are usually larger and more boring, square or round in solid colours. Executive wear for double cuff links should be slightly smaller. Cuff links are an accessory, use it well.


5) Shoes - Thankfully, guys do not need 20 pairs of shoes. If you think about it seriously, you only need 2 very very good pairs of executive shoes, and they will last for sometime. If you keep buying those RM100-150 pp, they will look bad very quickly and you will have to replace them more often. Guys have the habit of doing everything well but neglecting their shoes. A good pair of black leather executive shoes should cost at least RM600-1,500pp. I can tell you a secret, that girls put a lot of importance in the shoes that guys wear. Slip ons or those with laces, I would always side with laces for executive wear. Never brown, always black, and always take care of your leather shoes with proper polish.


6) Trousers - Always wear pants with a nice conservative belt, hopefully black with a simple buckle. Not brown or light brown belts. Never wear pants without a belt to work, even if the pants fit - its bad style.



p/s photos: Fala Chen



HK Property Confidential



  • Hong Kong's home sales fell 58% y/y in volume and 63% in value transacted in October as local lenders tightened mortgage lending amid a slowdown in the economy - this is the largest drop since 1999 and the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Bank lending rose 13% in September, the slowest in over a year, and almost half the 24% increase in August. Office rents in Hong Kong may experience a 20% drop by the end of 2009.
  • Banks have not lowered their prime rates along with the 0.5% cut in the US interest rate and are adopting more conservative mortgage lending policies (loaning less and scrutinizing borrowers more).
  • Prices have been sticky downwards in HK (even stickier in Malaysia as many sellers are waiting for firmer prices with arrogance) as many home-owners have only just
    woken up to the fact that the market is heading into a protracted downturn as
    opposed to a brief correction. Average prices have only fallen 14% from the peak (Prices have already fallen 14% in HK and probably the same in Singapore... in Malaysia, it has not budged much yet... watch for first out best dressed action soon..). The high-end segment is still outperforming and faces more downside risk. home-buyers may be canceling transactions by forfeiting the deposits and delaying completion date of the transactions.Equity prices remain above their historical lows.
  • Citigroup: downward spiral in the Hong Kong property market will continue for the next 12 months - potential push back in completions and the lack of new land sales by the government will result in further declines in construction activities, leading to rising unemployment in the sector, and deal a further blow to the economy (through other industries like property agency, interior decorations, furniture and fittings, consumer electronics) which in turn will adversely affect housing demand.
  • Hong Kong's prime office rents surged 33% in the 12 months ended May 2008 (Colliers) but most assume that their growth will slow over the next year
  • During the 2nd quarter of 2008, prices fell in several segments of Hong Kong’s property market. Smaller sized apartments were especially hit badly but property prices were strongly up over the year. The overall index rose 25.4% (19.4% in real terms) to end Q2 2008.
  • Strong consumption growth has been propelling residential and commercial property prices upward while negative real interest rates have been supporting the creation of new development.Robust labor market has kept demand for commercial space tight (PREI) But with credit costs rising and slowing economic growth, Hong Kong's property market could be vulnerable.
  • PREI: total housing transaction value in the second quarter fell by 4.6% from that of a year before.
  • Decline in global shipping on higher costs/slower demand for raw materials might have negative effect on warehousing demand which has been a driver of retail property demand.
  • Jones Lasalle: despite slowing consumption growth, leasing costs have been rising. Sales volumes have fallen but so far prices are holding up so far (through mid Q3).
  • Residential property prices were accelerating early in 2008, from 10.1% yoy increase in June 2007 to 27.7% in January 2008. Prices at the luxury end of the market are already back at 1997 levels. Low borrowing cost at 2.5%, high property yields at 4%-5% made property investment more attractive.
p/s photos: Fala Chen Fat Lai (Men love fast powerful cars like Lambros, Ferraris, Aston Martins and Porsches... not because they really appreciate the engine specs and mechanics... but because they have never seen an ugly woman get out of one)