Showing posts with label Genting Singapore. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Genting Singapore. Show all posts

Genting - Smells Like X, Looks Like X, IT IS XXXX

How many ways you can say "crap", "screwed", ... Nothing new .. while the company is still working down impairment losses from Genting HK and Walker Digital, here's another dubious one. It seems that any investments that did not turn out well, will be chucked to tap the cash from Malaysian operations.

What is 'untimely' is that they announced a bid recently for the New York racino beforehand, which in my view is a shot in the dark, but stoked up interest before the 1-2 punch. End result: punchdrunk.

Stanley made 6.6m pounds last year but lost 184m pounds for the first 3 months this year, ta-dah...



GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD (“GENM”)
GROWING BUSINESS WITH UK ACQUISITION

KUALA LUMPUR, 1 JULY 2010: Genting Malaysia Berhad (“GENM”/“Company”) today announced that it will acquire Genting Singapore PLC’s casino operations in the United Kingdom (“Genting UK”) for a total cash consideration of £340 million (equivalent to approximately RM1,668 million).

Genting UK has the largest number of casino properties in the United Kingdom with 44 casino properties, including five located in London. Genting UK comes with established gaming brands such as Crockfords, Colony Club, Maxims, Circus, The Palm Beach and Mint. Crockfords, the world’s oldest private gaming club, has catered to the elite since 1828, while the Colony Club is recognised as London’s most stylish and contemporary casino.

The acquisition is in line with GENM’s strategy to grow its core businesses of leisure, hospitality and entertainment internationally, beyond Malaysia. With nearly 40 years’ experience in the gaming business, an established clientele and strong cash reserves, GENM will be well-placed to reap untapped synergies with the UK operations.

Dato’ Lee Choong Yan, President and Chief Operating Officer of GENM, said: “The acquisition of Genting UK presents GENM with an opportunity to grow, with the resources at our disposal. This acquisition will also provide us with access to established casino brands and an extensive network of casinos already operating across the UK. With our proven track record and decades of experience, we have the expertise to unlock the potential of Genting UK and grow the UK business.’’

The acquisition complements GENM’s long-term international expansion strategy, with plans to enter markets in Europe and the United States of America, where the Company had separately announced that it has submitted a bid for a video lottery licence.

(iv) the SPA is conditional upon the fulfillment of the following conditions on or
before 31 December 2010:
(a) the approval of the shareholders of GENS being obtained for the sale of the Sale Shares;
(b) the approval of the shareholders of GENM being obtained for the acquisition of the Sale Shares;
(c) GWWUK being reasonably satisfied with the results of the legal, financial and taxation due diligence audit conducted on the Acquiree Group;
(d) the approval of BNM being obtained;
(e) the approval of the British Gambling Commission being obtained;
(f) the consent from the creditors/lenders of the Acquiree Group, where required; and
(g) the approval/consent of any other authority/party, if required;



6. RATIONALE FOR THE PROPOSED ACQUISITION
The GENM Group is currently principally involved in the leisure, hospitality and entertainment business in Malaysia with its main focus in the operations of Resorts World Genting, a premier family leisure and entertainment resort at the peak of Genting Highlands. In addition, the GENM Group also has investments in foreign-listed companies and interest-bearing financial securities.

In relation to its core business of leisure, hospitality and entertainment, the GENM Group is looking to expand internationally beyond Malaysia, with a current focus on Europe and the United States of America. The Proposed Acquisition represents a good opportunity for GENM to grow its earnings and revenue base.

The Proposed Acquisition also provides the GENM Group with an opportunity to inherit the legacy of the Genting UK Businesses’ experience of over 30 years in the UK gaming industry, largest network of casinos throughout the UK, established brand names and operating track record.

GENM Group intends to enhance and fuel the Genting UK Businesses’ growth through synergies created from the Proposed Acquisition by leveraging on GENM Group’s strengths. These strengths include the GENM Group’s large Asian clientele, its international sales and marketing strategies, as well as strong membership marketing and data base management.

The GENM Group also expects to be able to further improve the Genting UK Businesses’ operational efficiencies through automation and the sharing of information technology. With its financial resources and vast experience in the leisure, hospitality and entertainment business, the GENM Group believes in its ability to successfully undertake new projects in the UK, through the Genting UK Businesses.

Upon completion of the Proposed Acquisition, the GENM Group will own leisure, hospitality and entertainment businesses in Malaysia and the UK.

(Sooooo, keep it at Genting Singapore la ...) As this is a RPT the controlling shareholders cannot vote, OMG minority shareholders do yourselves a favour, vote properly. Trouble is many would have been so disgruntled that they would be selling the shares from hereon.



NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

Gossiping About Sentosa RW IR Casino



- S$100 per entry for Singaporeans or S$2,000 annual fee. Still 5 were caught trying to slip through and were charged. The fee of $100 is per entry per 24 hours. That means if you entered the casino at 0001 min past midnite, it will expire 2359 the same date. To remain inside the casino, another $100 is required for the next 24 hours. If you overstay 1 min, you can be fined $1000.

- Donnie Yen was spotted to be trying his luck in the first couple of days.

- The casino's net gains per day for the first few days was S$3.5m. I will be that 4 out of 5 patrons walk out losing money.

- Yes, somebody forgot about the foreign workers loophole, hence many were dressed very casually and can be found sleeping around on the floors - kinda puts a damper after spending S$6bn on that thing. Guess they will have to plug that loophole or we will see Sundays at Kota Raya Kompleks being replicated at the casino.

- Apparently a substantial number of the visitors came from China.

- It is uncomfortable and hot to watch the shows in Universal Studio. Surely you shouldn't have shows being performed outside - like no one knew that we are all on the bloody equator matey. The heat is likely to deter visitors. They already had failures in Haw Par Villa, Tang Dynasty City and other theme parks - did not not learn from past experience?

- Some people spotted a car at the Genting carpark with the back open. A maid and 2 kids sitting behind eating. Where were their parents? Your guess is as good as mind. This cannot be encouraged, its quite sad.

- Yes, some people got in wearing slippers.

- Some already rate the Universal Studios theme park as a lot better than HK Disneyland, but it doesn't take a lot to do that, really.

- The casino says that 70% of staffers at the casino are Singaporeans or Singapore PR holders, although most who went there would like to disagree.

- An Indonesian man who lost all the S$1,000 he had with him at the Sentosa casino was jailed for four weeks after pleading guilty to stealing a handphone from an undergraduate at Changi Airport.

A man dressed as a Chinese God of Fortune walks inside the newly opened Resorts World Sentosa casino.

- At least three quarters of the casino is operational. But seriously, the 15,000-square-metre casino will not be able to cater to 20,000 people at any one time even when fully opened. We have to be admit that the crowds in the opening weeks may not be fair to the casino as it will result in too many people, too many players and not enough tables.

- 8 lions for the lion dance, 11.18am for the official opening, 12.18pm for the casino doors to be opened to the public.


- Lim Kok Thay was Mr Cool as he played the first game in the house – a game of baccarat – which he lost to much laughter and ribbing from all present.

- The theme park is spread on 24 hectares of land and features a total of 24 rides and attractions. The prime among these are the Battlestar Galactica Ride which is a multi-track coaster, and a replica of the famous Revenge of the Mummy Attraction. The mummy ride is presently only available at Universal Studios Hollywood and Orlando. One major highlight will be the Shrek 4D attraction, an awesome experience in which viewers are taken into the world of Shrek virtually and physically. Another highly anticipated ride in sci-fi city is the Transformers ride. The park is divided into total seven sectors which include Sci-Fi City, New York City, Egypt, The Lost World and The Hollywood. 6 hotels are also there which have a combined room count of 1800 rooms.

- Not spotted during the first few days in Sentosa, the analysts who put up BUY calls on Genting Singapore.

Brilliant photos can be found at this link, OMG, the Universal Studios facade looked exactly like the beautiful Disneyland of old. Having said that, back in the casino there seems to be spots of "poor design and aesthetics" in some of the architecture, design and taste. There were spots of brilliance such as the Botero (I think it was, or maybe a look-alike) and chandeliers. Overall Universal Studios theme park looked a lot better.

http://sparklette.net/travel/singapore/resorts-world-sentosa/

Genting Singapore Over-owned Stock



Well I think investors should only be holding Genting Singapore right up before it opens. Now it is tumbling hard and fast to find its true fair value.

Singapore's future over the next five to 10 years is an "optimistic" one, said Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew, and the tourism sector will reflect that. Mr Lee said the two integrated resorts (IRs) have hired about 16,000 Singaporean workers, and tourist arrivals will shoot up. With a laugh, Mr Lee said: "They want to gamble. I don't understand why they want to lose. You surely will not win."


In reference to Resorts World Sentosa, which opened its casino on Sunday, Mr Lee said "the boss counted S$3.5 million" on the first day and S$3.7 million on the second day. Those are basically "gross gains" to the casino before taking off expenses. Those are decent figures but bear in mind these are euphoric days which will probably not be repeated. A better guide would be to take a 50% discount on that, I mean not everyday is a holiday and not everyday is the grand opening and most days people need to work at their day jobs. S$1.8 x 365 = S$657m, not bad but you also need to whack off expenses = a good figure but not enough to support the lofty share price above S$1.00. Most houses had estimated revenues of at least S$1.2bn-S$1.8bn. Even when you add in hotels and theme parks, its going to be a stretch.

Amidst concern over visitors, Genting Singapore Plc., owner of Singapore’s first casino, fell for the fourth day. At close, the stock lost 1.1% to 94 Singapore cents. It was down by 11% since Resorts World Sentosa opened its gambling facility on February 14.

The stock continued to be sold down and slid to a near six month. It is now down 28 per cent from a record high of $1.30 it hit on Dec 31. The counter has been traded heavily since its casino opened over the Chinese New Year holiday period, with 366 million shares changing hands on Friday following 369 million done on Thursday. This is more than triple the average daily volume of 105 million shares of Genting traded over the past six months. This shows that many big institutional funds are squaring off their positions. Its an over-owned stock. What that means is that those who really wanted to buy, would have owned the stock by now. Most were waiting for the euphoria hoping it would send the share price above S$1.50 and selling into the wave. Well the wave did not come, the buying dried up, its a one way trend now.

Genting Singapore has the worst performance on the benchmark Straits Times Index, as it has drooping 28%, this year, which has retreated 4.9%. Robin Goh, a Resorts World spokesman told that the casino, an S$6.6 billion venture, had 60,000 patrons in the first three days.

Resorts World said that is expecting to open the Theme Park in early March. According to the company website, four of the hotels have been released last month and two more have been scheduled to open after 2010.

According to Bloomberg consensus, Resort World Sentosa will be the world’s most profitable casino by 2011, implying Singapore will be generating twice the revenues of Malaysia.

The consensus forecasts seem aggressive, as they assume every single visitor to Singapore would visit either of the integrated resorts once and that every eligible Johorean would go twice to the resort. Furthermore, estimates counts on every Singaporean above 21 years of age visiting the casino five times a year and outspending the average visitor in Macau. Estimates have projected that each visitor to Resorts World Sentosa would spend US$100, which is 51% higher than that typically spent at Genting Malaysia’s casino (US$66) and higher than the average spend at the Venetian Macau (US$84). That does not include the additional S$100 entry levy that each Singaporean must pay when they enter the casino. According to consensus, Resorts World Sentosa and Marina Bay Sands in their first full year of operations will achieve combined gross gaming revenue equivalent to 50% of Las Vegas at about US$4bil. That is quite an optimistic view.

Yes, Malaysian will visit the two casinos in Singapore maybe once every two years, but that will be it. Resorts World Malaysia still has its market day trippers (72% of visitors) to remain loyal. Resorts World Sentosa’s hotel rates are 7 times those of Genting Highlands. A trip to Singapore or Sentosa nowadays is as expensive as a trip to Australia or Japan to Malaysians. Go figure. I think Genting Singapore will find a base around S$0.85.

NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.


Genting Singapore In Cairo - Some Perspective Please


Genting Singapore said on Tuesday that one of its subsidiaries has been selected as the new operator of a casino in Egypt. The firm said Genting Casinos, an indirect wholly-owned unit of Genting UK, has entered into a casino concession agreement with Misr Hotels. Genting UK has been awarded the casino concession for The Nile Ritz Carlton Hotel in Cairo for an initial period of 10 years. It plans to open the new operation under the brand "Crockfords on the Nile".

The move is part of Genting's strategy to expand its casino resort network. It will also strengthen and develop Genting UK's position in the premium market through its key high-end London casino clubs, Crockfords, Colony and Maxims.

The Nile Hotel, located on the banks of the Nile and in the heart of the Egyptian capital of Cairo, will undergo a major refurbishment. The hotel is considered one of the iconic developments in Cairo which has contributed to the Egyptian travel industry since it first opened in 1958.

Renovation work is expected to be completed in early 2012. Genting said the Casino concession agreement is not expected to have any material impact on its earnings in the current financial year.

My Take: If my readers can remember, in September last year I went to Cairo and had a zen moment with my camel boy. Anyway, yes, I did visit the casino as I was just as surprised as anyone that there were casinos in Cairo.

There are about 25 casinos in Cairo already. Each casino has to be within an "approved hotel", usually only one floor or a section of one floor.

All casinos in Cairo are not open to Egyptians but only to tourists, and naturally those of Islamic faith are prohibited as well. Let me tell you that the actual number of people playing there were very few. You almost can have the table all to yourself, and I am not kidding.

Hence all the casinos have less than 10 tables and less than 20 slot machines. The actual impact of having one at Nile Ritz Carlton Hotel is that it will be glitzy, but let me assure you that at any one time you will find less than 20 people playing and you can probably only put in 20 tables max. Anymore tables will just be a waste.

One of the bigger casinos in Cairo is Inter-Casino at the Ramses Hilton Hotel. It has 18 tables and 42 slots. Another is Casino Royal at Movenpick Jolie Ville Resort (yes, Movenpick) with 16 table games and the biggest number of slot machines at 154. The other big one is Taba Hilton & Casino with 19 table games and 76 slot.

Hence people should not be overly excited with the Cairo project, not when there are already 25 operators, and all catering to tourists. This is like adding two gaming tables at Resorts World, seriously folks. The problem is not with Ritz Carlton or Genting, its the number of tourists that actually visit Cairo, and spread that out to over 25 casinos in the one city - that's the problem.

Yes, being with Nile Ritz Carlton is probably the grandest of the lot, and on the Nile some more. But, do you know how many 5-6 star hotels there are on the Nile already - Four Season Cairo Nile Plaza, Intercontinental City Stars, Sheraton, Sofitel, etc... Its just another one.


p/s photo: Fiona Xie

Why I Like Genting Malaysia & Genting Berhad (pls stop laughing)


One must be able to separate an issue from the overall scope of things. Many readers would assume that I have an axe to grind with the Genting group - well, no is the answer. Yes, I have issues about their board's independence, but business fundamentals are another thing.

You would have noticed that since my recommendation of CIMB (@ 10.30), I have not touched on any large caps for the longest time. My rationale is simple, without sufficient liquidity the large caps will find it hard to move. Why then the need to look at Genting Malaysia and Genting Berhad?


Pick up any research report and their target price for both counters are at least 20% above their current prices. Yes, they have been recommending buys on both for the longest time. Opportunity cost people, opportunity cost. Call it a timing strategy, but the bones in me indicate that both counters are likely to outperform over the next 3-6 months substantially.


Genting Malaysia

Ticker: GENM MK

Shares Issued (m): 5,904.4

Market Cap (RM m): 16,768.4

Major Shareholder

Genting Bhd owns 48.65%


RNAV valuation
(RMm)
Gaming operations DCF (3% TGR, 11% WACC) 13,618.1

Net cash as at 31 Dec ‘09 5,112.4

Star Cruises market value at USD0.24/share 1,174.6

Wisma Genting and Segambut property 284.1

RNAV
20,189.2
No. of shares 5,940.1

RNAV/share 3.40

Target Price 3.40

Source: Maybank-IB


Genting Berhad

Ticker GENT MK

Share Capital (m) 3704.77

Market Cap (RMm) 26229.79

Major Shareholders

Kien Huat Realty 32.21%

Harbor Capital Advisors 3.56%

Tinehay Holdings 3.29%


Genting Bhd’s SOP table RNAV (RM)

Listed Assets

Genting Malaysia 10,394.9

Genting Plantations 2,726.9

Genting Singapore 14,626.0

Book value of listed assets 2,386.8

Excess from listed assets 25,361.0

NPV of Other Assets
Management fees 2,860.8
Genting Sanyen Power 1,627.0

Oil and gas 647.3

Wisma Genting 240.0

Book value of other assets 1,800.0

Excess from other assets 3,575.0

FY09E company book value 7,174.4
Net Asset Value (RMm) 36,110.4

Total no. of shares (m) 3,703.8

NAV per share (RM) 9.70

Target price (RM/share) 9.70

Source: Company, CIMB Research


I have just taken research samples from the two better local research outfits. Nobody talks about "growth", they harp on RNAV, so much so that both have set the RNAV as their target prices. Isn't that strange? Coincidence? Well, probably not so.
Both are expecting some significant corporate exercise in the works.

a) If we look at the group's strategy, they are making Genting Berhad as the holding company. Like it or not, much of the family's wealth is tied up in Genting Berhad and to a much lesser extent effectively at both Genting Singapore and Genting Malaysia.


b) The payback period for Genting Singapore will be out there somewhere, a pretty long time away despite looking to be good long term assets.


c) If they will be using Genting Berhad as the holding company, it will be the main M&A vehicle going forward.


d) That being the case, the ammunition power should reside in Genting Berhad.


e) That means Genting Malaysia is holding about RM5bn too much money for all intents and purposes.


f) Genting Malaysia is being remodeled into a dividend stock as Resorts World is a cash generating cow but there is little to expand in Malaysia. I mean, seriously, any more add ons to Genting Highlands will result in serious soil erosion. By leaving Genting Malaysia having just Resorts World, it alienates the risk of that "casino license" being revoked in the future, should that occur. Nobody can totally rule out that risk. Do we know how local politics will play out in 2 years time, what about 5 years or 10 years down the road? By making it a dividend stock, it is facing the reality that there is no growth for that company except organic growth.


g) Following that masterplan, you would want to take out the RM5bn. Genting Malaysia has 5.9bn shares. That works out to RM0.86 per share. A RM0.50 special dividend would tie in nicely with the celebration of the opening of Resorts World Sentosa.
A RM0.50 special dividend would send Genting Malaysia rocketing past RM3.00. That surge will put Genting Berhad's into positive territory as well because it will receive RM1.416bn cash. Genting Berhad has about RM1.01 cash per share as it is, or RM3.737bn cash. Added together, that will come to RM5.153bn or RM1.39 cash per share. Of course, they could in the end decide not to do anything with the cash in Genting Malaysia - but chances are they will do something with the cash soon. There is always the concern that Genting Malaysia may not want to issue a special dividend as the family does not control majority of the stock - that's a pretty naive way to run a listed company because these companies are so big now that its virtually impossible to own a majority of the shares. The companies only got so big because of the way they tap capital.

h) Some have been speculating that Genting Berhad should be getting out of plantations, oil & gas and their power business. That would make sense if they want to extract more cash from Genting Malaysia by selling "yielding assets". In that argument, the power plant business could be sold in another RPT back to Genting Malaysia.

As I have said, Genting Berhad is likely to be its holding company, which should means that most of the mentioned assets will stay in the books. While I have always argued that companies should be focused rather than look like a conglomerate - in Genting group's case, they have relatively "pure vehicles" already in Genting Singapore and Genting Malaysia.


I know all this looks more like guesswork but I am willing to place my chips on the table in anticipation of the January 2010 soft opening for Resorts World Sentosa. There is also the likelihood of a likely "euphoric reassessment" of Genting Singapore when that happens. You know how traditional Chinese business people like to make "good things" happening all at once!!!
Even if nothing happens, it is not going to cost me much to square off a few months later.

p/s photo: Noon Wongsawan

The above were views on stocks and sectors that I like, not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.



And They Say There Is No Collusion ...



You can actually get governments to do certain things. Shares of Macau plays rocketed yesterday, bucking the general market declines, following a report that China has quietly eased restrictions to allow residents of Guangdong province to visit the enclave more frequently.

Industry executives now expect the Macau casino sector to bring in record gaming revenues in October, boosted by the looser restrictions and the upcoming Golden Week holiday, Reuters reported.

Galaxy Entertainment (0027) jumped 9.5 percent to close at HK$3.79, defying a 0.7 percent decline in the benchmark Hang Seng Index.

Shun Tak Holdings (0242), a Macau- focused conglomerate controlled by the family of Stanley Ho Hung-sun, jumped 9 percent to HK$6.69. SJM Holdings (0880), Ho's casino flagship, rose 5.1 percent to HK$4.52. Melco International Development (0200), which is owned by Lawrence Ho Yau-lung, jumped 7.7 percent to end the day at HK$5.87.

The authorities now allow mainland travelers from Guangdong to visit Macau once a month under the Individual Visit Scheme, instead of just once every three months, Reuters quoted industry sources as saying. The restrictions started to be relaxed 2 months ago and were loosened even further since September 1.

"Gaming revenues for the first two weeks of the month have been good," one executive said. Another unnamed casino executive said September gaming revenues will be "very good" and October will likely set a new record high. Now is it just kind timing or what??? Just when the 3 major operators in Macau have filed for IPOs in HK, we see these restrictions being lifted??!!

Backed by big-name cornerstone investors, the institutional tranche of Wynn Macau's HK$12.6 billion public offering was oversubscribed by up to five times when it started bookbuilding yesterday.

The casino operator attracted six high-profile investors who poured US$250 million (HK$1.95 billion) to subscribe for shares with a six-month lock-up period. They include Lifestyle International (1212) managing director Thomas Lau Luen-hung who subscribed for US$50 million worth of shares and Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016) non-executive director Walter Kwok Ping-sheung who is seeking US$20 million worth.

Wynn Macau plans to offer 1.25 billion shares at HK$8.52 to HK$10.08 each, which is 29.4 to 34.8 times its estimated earnings per share of 29 HK cents this year. Wynn Macau's net income slumped 34.8 percent to HK$903.7 million for the first half ended June 30 as Macau's gaming industry contracted.

These developments will pave the way for a spectacular listing of Wynn Macau and Macau Sands - and guess what, Genting Singapore will be an indirect beneficiary, followed by Genting Berhad, but the former is a much better play.



p/s photos: Miwa Oshiro Cocoa

Viability Of IR "Visitor Projections" Questioned By Citi



It is always good to take the other side of the coin when everybody is in favour of a certain thing. Needless to say, there appears to be a euphoria like thingy being built up surrounding the two casinos as the date of their opening draws closer. Citigroup research has drawn attention to the viability of some of those projections, in particular to the number of visitors. My views in color.

---------------
UNDER QUESTION

The $100 entrance fee is a sticking point as it could prevent both casinos from developing strong, recurring local mass market clients. In a report on the prospects of Las Vegas Sands (LVS), which owns Marina Bay Sands (MBS) here, Citi said that assuming Marina Bay Sands contributes 20 per cent of LVS's total Ebitdar in its first full year, every eligible Singaporean will have to go to the casino five times a year and spend more then the average visitor to Macau. Why cite Las Vegas Sands report, naturally they will project lofty figures. I doubt many research houses are looking at the 15-16 million visitors a year as their base pricing. Take it down by 20%.

We liken the current sentiment towards the integrated resort to the Macau gaming boom in 2006/07 and urge investors to not be left holding this parcel when the music stops,' added Citi analyst Anil Daswani. Mr Daswani acknowledges that his forecast of 20 per cent Ebitdar from LVS's Singapore operations is about 30 per cent below consensus. But he also added: 'If current market estimates are believed, then the Marina Bay Sands will be the most profitable casino in the world in its first full year of operations despite Singapore being a fledgling gaming market.'Singapore is an untested market as far as gaming goes. Mr Daswani, obviously is from india and not a born and bred Singaporean. If you examine gaming habits by virtue of official available data, you will get a slanted view. If you rely on data from Singapore Pools, the turf club, football betting and 4D - the official data is probably representing 10%-15% of actual betting that takes place. About the only thing that is officially correct is from the Singapore Pools (lotto like) which illegal syndicates cannot touch. Horse racing, in Singapore about S$700,000 to S$1.2m is wagered every race, officially. People in the know will not gasp when I say the real figure is at least 15x-20x that figure, you do the math. The figure is the same, maybe even higher for footballing bets. 4D is still rife in illegal quarters but may have toned down somewhat. Still the illegal pool should be at least 5x-10x the legal pool. So, with that in mind, do you wish to change your view on Singaporean gaming habits?

Whether Singapore leans towards the Las Vegas model (which counts on non-gaming revenue) or the Macau model (which relies on VIP gamers), will have a significant impact on revenue generators here, and ultimately, the success of the IRs.

Based on Citi's analysis, to achieve US$1.56 billion in revenue each, both IRs will have to attract a combined total of 31 million visitors annually. This implies that 3.2 million eligible Singaporeans (over 21 years) will have to visit either casino a total of five times. An additional 1.4 million visitors from Johor will have to visit either casino twice a year and 12.2 million tourists will have gone at least once with everybody betting and losing at least US$100.

Citi highlights that the US$100 discretionary spending is almost twice that typically spent at Genting Malaysia's casino (US$53) and higher than the average spending at LVS's Venetian Macau (US$84). 'This does not include the additional $100 entry levy that each Singaporean must pay when they enter the casino,' added Mr Daswani. Haroo, ... Its S$18 to get into the Singapore Zoo, its fucking S$29.50 to get on the bloody Singapore Flyer and that's just a 10 minute thingy. So what's S$100???

He also said that while the market is expecting Singapore IRs to achieve Net Wins Per Table in line with those achieved in Macau, 'we cannot justify these assumptions just as we cannot believe that Singapore in its first full year of operations will equate to 30-40 per cent of the market size of Macau in terms of gaming revenue or 70 per cent plus of the entire Las Vegas Strip'.

It is not just gaming that is at risk. Citi estimates that room rates at MBS will be around US$143 with occupancy at 78 per cent. However, it noted that there will be 18 per cent of new hotel room supply added to Singapore's total hotel room supply next year.

But its the $100 entrance fee that is a sticking point as it could prevent both casinos from developing strong and recurring local mass market customers. 'In Melbourne and Macau, a key dynamic of each market is that the local Australians and Chinese dominate their respective mass market division at the casinos. If Singapore wants more mass market type casinos to succeed, they will have to successfully attract the locals to gamble regularly,' said Mr Daswani. At MBS, Citi expects 51 per cent of total gaming revenue to come from the mass market vs 42 per cent at Venetian Macau. While Citi has focused on many downside risks, others have been more optimistic.

In a report last month, CIMB estimated that Singapore could have a casino market worth $5.1 billion. Accepting that predicting market size is 'still hazy', CIMB nevertheless used a ratio of casino revenues-to-legal gambling market in Malaysia to gauge the relative market size of the casino market versus the non-casino gambling market. Applying this ratio to Singapore, and cognisant that this could underestimate the viable casino market, CIMB found that in 2008, Singapore's tax authorities collected $1.78 billion of taxes from gaming activities. Assuming a 20 per cent tax rate, the legal gaming market in Singapore is estimated to be about $8.9 billion, it said. CIMB also pointed out that a recent study estimated that 58 per cent of the population in Singapore are gamblers and each gambled up to almost $3,300 per person. 'These data points support our estimation of a $9 billion gaming market size to tap', it concluded.


I am not dumping Citi's comments down the drain but there are a few areas of assumptions which are not all there. Many of the reports out there did pretty well in the rigorous research. Why I think both casinos will do well (and that the Sentosa one will actually do better):

a) just the two of us, no more ... no matter how you cut it, its a duopoly

b) now leverage that duopoly to eat into the massive amount of illegal gaming in Malaysia and Singapore (think of betting stations within the casinos to take bets on Singapore Pools, 4D and horse racing... races being beamed live). To eat into illegal market, it has to be more convenient, you want the same gaming dollar to travel more, you win here, you bet there, etc...

c) the Singapore government's support, they have to be a success, hence you can be assured that if there are any shortfalls in visitors or structural issues hindering profitability, there will be suggestions and ways to get around them swiftly, the two IRs viability and success reflects critically on the government's economic planning and value add industry convergence strategy

d) excellent infrastructure and connectivity, the rise and rise of low cost airlines, the new terminal for them and the connectivity with AirAsia, Firefly etc... bodes well for attracting and pushing through all visitors to at least stopover in Singapore whenever tourists pass through the Asia-Pacific region

e) The underlying difference between Macau and Singapore is a bit like Geylang and Bukit Timah, or if you prefer, like comparing Kings Cross and Darling Harbour. Despite the glitz and glamour on the outside and the facade, Macau is still a breeding ground for wild cowboys left over from triad days, there is still the underlying seediness of illegal money lending, prostitutes hanging by the doorways and and entrances, there is still the raw naked feeling that your skull could be cracked by a bad tempered loser, etc... That's why the two casinos in Singapore will be considered as "safe", where if you win big, you won't have to fear whether you can get out the casino or the island or your room unscathed. Its a bit unfair for me to trash Macau but water it down a little, you get at the truth. Safety, convenience, rule of law, upright police force ... mean the two casinos deserves a premium, and will get that premium from gamers. If you are a regular gambler (say 4 times a year to an international casino), would you bring your family with you to Macau (safety, healthy activity issues...) or would you go to Singapore?

It is fine and well to look at figure projections, room rates, occupancy rates, net revenue per punter, theme park revenue per visitor, etc... but you must first really get behind the properties and understand the nuances of the people, the place, the environment, the thinking, the mindset and psychology of the people before the estimates make good sense. The assumptions and how persuasive are the underlying assumptions will lead to how strong is the opinion of whether the views are too optimistic or pessimistic. I found nothing much of value or essence in the underlying arguments of Citi's view.



p/s photo: Gaile Lai

Rights Issues Like Big Pills, Hard to Take



Rights issues have always been regarded badly by investors. Has there ever been a rights issue that has been warmly welcomed by investors? Investors frown on rights issue because the company wants more money from them. Investors need to think more clearly, the money is in exchange of additional shares. If the investor bought the shares because he/she believed in the story or growth plans of Company A, then why sell when they announce a rights issue? Doesn't the rights issue tie in with the plans? S$1.5B in expected funds raised. Genting Singapore intends to use approximately 60% of net proceeds raised from the rights issue for funding of future acquisitions and/or investments undertaken by the group. The remaining 40% will be used for working capital purposes and includes repayment of bank borrowings.

In my view, most investors should already know that a rights issue was coming, why was that a surprise? If investors sold because they do not want to cough up more money, ok that is understandable. Looking at the shareholders of Genting Singapore, it looks like the biggest burden will be on Genting Berhad to raise the funds. Genting Singapore is just slapping open its palm for more money and a hot growth story.

The Singapore gaming story has taken on wing over the past few weeks following the much improved gaming industry in Macau, so much so that Sands and Wynn are both quickly thinking of lodging IPOs in HK for their Macau operations. The improved sentiment means improved valuations on Singapore casinos.

This is a minor hiccup, I still see more and more analyst reports upgrading their target pricing from S$1.10-1.20 to the S$1.50 level over the next few months.


p/s photo: Park Ji Yoon

Genting Singapore Being Queried By SGX


The hoo-hah yesterday in Malaysia and Singapore markets was the sell down in Genting Singapore, Genting Berhad and Resorts World. The whole thing rested on the news that the Lim family disposed their private stake in Genting International. Seriously, the majority of investors in Malaysia were trading blind for most of the morning session because they did not get any news or hints. Same can be said for Singapore save for a substantial drop early in the session in Genting Singapore prompted swift action by SGX to the company querying the drop. The message was posted at 9.38am yesterday. The company answered at 1.21pm after the close of the first session yesterday that they received notification of the sale from the sellers at 12.32pm yesterday.

There are a few uncomfortable issues in that rumours of the deal and the details were floating way before the markets opened yesterday. FinanceAsia had a scoop and the article was available early yesterday. Yes, the article was based on sources close to the deal, which is hard to patrol by the exchanges or the company. The interesting thing was that FinanceAsia was able to say that the deal was launched from 8.30pm the previous day (26 May). Safe to say that the buyers were enticed by the big discount. It is also safe to assume that those who bought will also know that they are likely to get their bids fulfilled, and would sell first thing the next day to lock in the spread (profit). The sad thing is that most of the buyers are not privy to the information and may think they are getting in cheap.

The deal should have been closed before the markets opened. The market should have equal access to information for a fair trading market with integrity. When one side of the buyer-seller have an unfair advantage, that's not right.

You cannot stop the media from trying to get the scoop, that will always happen. What the exchanges and companies must do is to eliminate these situations from resulting in an unfair situation. At fault here are the investment advisors, they should advise the sellers on the timeline and progressive steps to do the deal so as to eliminate the "gaps" between striking the deal, placing the deal, and announcing the deal to the company. J.P. Morgan and UBS acted as joint bookrunners and underwriters for the deal.

SGX should reprimand the advisors severely, even a fine is in order considering the amount of "losses" suffered by the innocent buyers.

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FinanceAsia: The 853.88 million shares were offered in a range between S$0.72 and S$0.76 and late last night the indication was that the price would be fixed at the bottom for a total deal size of S$614.8 million ($425 million). However, the deal wasn't launched until 8.30pm Hong Kong time yesterday and, at the request of a number of Asian investors, sources said the bookrunners had agreed to open the books for a short while before the start of trading this morning to give those who were unable to make an investment decision last night a second chance.

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27-May-2009 09:38:45
Mr. Terence Tay Wei Heng
General Counsel
Head, Corporate Affairs
Resorts World at Sentosa
39 Artillery Avenue, Sentosa
Singapore 09998

Dear Sir,

QUERY REGARDING TRADING ACTIVITY

We have noted, and draw to your attention, a substantial decrease in the price of your shares today. To ensure a fair and orderly market, please answer each of the following:

Question 1: Are you aware of any information not previously announced concerning you (the issuer), your subsidiaries or associated companies which, if known, might explain the trading?
- If yes, the information must be announced immediately.

Question 2: Are you aware of any other possible explanation for the trading?

Question 3: Can you confirm your compliance with the listing rules and, in particular, listing rule 703?

Please respond immediately via SGXNET. Where appropriate, you may want to request a trading halt or a suspension of trading. Please contact Market Control (or, if you need to discuss the matter, your Account Manager in Issuer Regulation) immediately. Thank you for your cooperation.

We have released this letter via SGXNET.

Yours faithfully

-------------------------------

27-May-2009 13:21:33
Glenn Seah
Vice President
Head, Market Surveillance
Risk Management & Regulation

Notes:
1. Subject to limited exceptions in rule 703, an issuer must announce any information known to the issuer concerning it or any of its subsidiaries or associated companies which is necessary to avoid the establishment of a false market in the issuer’s securities, or would be likely to materially affect the price or value of its securities must be publicly disclosed (rule 703).
2. An issuer must undertake a review to determine the causes of any unusual trading activity (paragraph 20 of Appendix 7.1).
3. An announcement should, among other things, state whether the issuer or any of its directors are aware of the reasons for the unusual trading activity and whether there is any material information which has not been publicly disclosed (paragraph 31 of Appendix 7.1).
4. Your responsibility under listing rules is not confined to, or necessarily satisfied by, answering the questions in this letter.

We refer to the queries from the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (the “SGX-ST”) regarding the substantial trading activity of the shares of Genting Singapore PLC (the “Company”) today.


SGX Question 1:
Are you aware of any information not previously announced concerning you (the issuer), your subsidiaries or associated companies which, if known, might explain the trading?

Reply:
The Company is not aware of any information not previously announced concerning the Company, its subsidiaries or associated companies, which if known, may explain the trading.
However, we wish to inform that the Company has just received confirmation from the following substantial shareholders at 12.32 p.m. today that:-
(i) Kien Huat Realty Sdn Berhad has disposed of 265,809,000 shares in the Company by Lakewood Sdn Bhd via a placing agreement;
(ii) Parkview Management Sdn Berhad as trustee of a discretionary trust, has disposed of 265,809,000 shares in the Company by Lakewood Sdn Bhd via a placing agreement; and
(iii) G Z Trust Corporation as trustee of a discretionary trust, has disposed of 649,073,320 shares in the Company by Golden Hope Unit Trust via a placing agreement.

The respective substantial shareholders will in due course be releasing the relevant Notice of Substantial Shareholder’s Change in Interests/Cessation of Interests (as the case may be).


SGX Question 2:
Are you aware of any other possible explanation for the trading?

Reply:
Saved as disclosed above, the Company is not aware of any other possible explanation for the trading.


SGX Question 3:
Can you confirm your compliance with the listing rules and, in particular, listing rule 703?

Reply:
The Company confirms that it is in compliance with the listing rules and, in particular, listing rule 703 of the Listing Manual of the SGX-ST.


For and on behalf of the Board
Genting Singapore PLC
Justin Tan Wah Joo
Managing Director
27 May 2009


p/s photo: Ayame Misaki