Update On Marketocracy Portfolio

Fund Performance for salvadordali's Mutual Fund

fund rankings
		For the six month period ending March 31, 2009 your fund outperformed 97.8% of the other funds on our site. Your forum and other privileges are based on this ranking

My portfolio was started on 1st August 2008. Marketocracy lets you manage a virtual portfolio of $1M in a simulated trading environment, allowing you to track your performance accurately and compare your fund management skills to other investors and professional fund managers. Yes, they do take into account transaction cost as well. If your track record turns out to be one of the best, you could be hired to help manage a real fund at Marketocracy. It's a great place to learn, and a great place to prove your talent. They also have important rules to ensure that you are running an actual investing portfolio and not just sitting on cash:

• No position can exceed 25% of your total portfolio value.
  
• Half your portfolio must be comprised of positions under 10% each.
  
• Your cash position isn't limited by this guideline, although you must be 65% invested

My fund was smartly called SMF, or Salvador Mutual Fund (no, not the foul language acronyms you are thinking). So far so good, although the first couple of months was iffy. SMF fund performance in orange colour.

The main objective of the fund is to beat the S&P 500. For the past 6 months ended 28 June, the S&P 500 has gained 6.76% (previously 1.33%) while my fund has gained 63.3% (previously 51.1%). There are usually rules which dictate that you must be at least 65% invested at all time, and your aim is to beat the index. If you can consistently beat the index, you should be golden. If you look at the turnover rates, I have increased the trading activity over the past two months as I think the recovery is still volatile and is more suited to be traded.

modern portfolio theory, you basically aim to beat the index, based on the premise that:

over the long run stocks offer superior returns

hence if you consistently beat the index, over the long run, you should have superior returns

recent returns vs. major indexes
		MTD QTD YTD SMF 0.42% 46.16% 53.80% S&P 500 0.14% 15.86% 3.10% DOW -0.73% 10.90% -3.85% Nasdaq 3.60% 20.26% 16.56%

recent returns
		RETURNS Last Week -0.18% Last Month 5.41% Last 3 Months 42.76% Last 6 Months 63.67% S&P500 RETURNS Last Week -0.21% Last Month 3.08% Last 3 Months 13.30% Last 6 Months 6.76% RETURNS VS S&P500 Last Week 0.03% Last Month 2.33% Last 3 Months 29.45% Last 6 Months 56.91%

alpha/beta vs. S&P500
		Alpha 54.37% Beta 1.26 R-Squared 0.84

turnover
		Last Month 36.12% Last 3 Months 188.85% Last 6 Months 292.71%

Symbol Price Shares Value Portion of Fund Gains Current Return BAC $12.75 6,000 $76,500.00 6.90% $36,593.22 42.46% STT $48.33 2,500 $120,825.00 10.90% $41,368.54 40.97% Details ACTG $7.60 16,000 $121,600.00 10.97% $37,791.79 30.62% Details QSII $56.47 1,500 $84,705.00 7.64% $16,267.77 13.56% Details SXE $32.35 3,000 $97,050.00 8.76% $9,089.54 10.33% Details MIDDLE MGM $6.78 14,000 $94,920.00 8.56% $5,124.78 5.71% WFR $17.96 6,000 $107,760.00 9.72% $1,996.56 1.89% F $5.61 30,000 $168,300.00 15.19% -$1,475.01 -0.87% JEC $41.37 1,500 $62,055.00 5.60% -$645.73 -1.03% AIG $1.46 50,000 $73,000.00 6.59% -$1,269.20 -1.71% Details BDD $8.48 11,000 $93,280.00 8.42% -$5,221.13 -5.30% Details

p/s photos: Fukuda Saki

Export Trend In Asia

The export trend in Asia:

Overview of Individual Countries


• China: Chinese exports contracted 2% y/y in November, though imports slumped more. Trade surplus $40.2b, the 4th consecutive record monthly trade surplus as commodity prices falls eroded import growth. Processing trade components have shown the sharpest slowing
• Japan: Export value was down -7.7% yoy in Oct-08 (biggest drop in 7 years), export volume was down -6.1% yoy. Exports to developed nations are expected to fall further and will likely have a negative impact on Japan's already slowing exports to Asia
• Singapore: Govt expects exports to contract by 4% in 2008; exports fell 5.7% in Sep (-13.9% in Aug) led by electronics, pharma, semiconductors. non-electronics fell -1.9%; exports to EU fell -23.6% and to U.S. fell -24.5%
• Taiwan: Exports contracted sharply in November plunging about 20% y/y, driven by a sharp drop in exports to other Asian countries since September. All tech exports declined drop in exports to China was particularly sharp (down 40% y/y)
• Malaysia: Exports fell 2.6% in Oct led by lower electronic and commodity exports after growing 15% in Sep. Export growth moderated in Q3 but stayed firm at 16.9% (Q208: 20.8%) due to high exports price and sustained demand of resource-based products; global slowdown, easing oil, commodity prices pose risk to commodity exports and current a/c surplus
• South Korea: Slowing IT, semiconductor exports; export growth led by price not volume gains; oil prices will lead to current a/c deficit this year
• Hong Kong: volume of domestic exports fell -24.1% in July, re-exports rose 8.8%, volume of total exports rose 7.3%, volume of imports rose 10.9%; exports to U.S. and Japan and also China declining.
• Thailand: Contribution of net exports to GDP might fall to 13% in 3Q08 from 16% in 2Q08. Export volume might grow 6.2% yoy Q3 from 9% yoy in 1H08
• Philippines: Jan-Jul trade deficit rose over 200% y/y on oil, rice and steel costs; resilience of non-electronic exports due to price than volume effects; commodity correction pose downside risk to non-electronics primary goods exports
• Indonesia: Exports fell 11.61% in Oct on declining oil and gas exports (-25.72%) as well as non-oil and gas exports (-8%); exports to China, India helping offset weakness in U.S. In Jan-Oct, exports increased 26.92% y/y. Exports slowed to 14.3% y/y in Q3
• Vietnam: Export turnover falling on decreasing crude, coal, and rice prices; Weak sales in apparel, coffee, seafood slowed exports to U.S. but exports as a whole increased 39% in Sep (fastest growth since 2005)
• India: Exports growth declined -12.1% y/y in Oct (first time since 2001) amid US and EU recession after growing 10.4% in Sep and 30.9% in H1-08. Earnings of IT exporting companies hit on U.S. slowdown as U.S. (financial) companies (a/c for 60% of service exports) slow their IT spending

p/s photos: Saki Fukuda