Showing posts with label alan dawa doma. Show all posts
Showing posts with label alan dawa doma. Show all posts

Palm Oil Has To Meet The Heightened Demands Of Globalisation



The nature of globalisation is that you can sell your goods and services to all corners of the globe, but you will also have to meet "desired standards" imposed by various governments and NGOs. If you are part of the palm oil supply chain, you have to meet the basic requirements. You just cannot say to hell with it. As a seller of goods or services, we just try to meet the changing demands of consumers. Companies and governments of good governance and strong CSR objectives have to do things better, not because it impacts your bottomline but because its the right thing to do.

Powerful activist groups such as Greenpeace knows that on its own it has little leverage to effect a change in corporate behaviour or government policies. The most effective is to exert pressure where the wallets are - the big buyers. Nestle and Unilever are very very big consumers, and they certainly don't need to to be in the limelight for using palm oil that they do not where they come from or how they were cultivated.

Its like Starbucks which tries to jump ahead of the curve by paying a "decent sum" to struggling coffee bean producers in third world countries by cutting out the many layers of middlemen. Its the way of the new world, some may pooh-pooh the high-falutin requirements as increasing the cost of production, etc. but I think we behave the way we do with the information we have. Twenty years ago, the dissemination of information may be poor and our understanding of various issues may be blighted because of the way things are.

The internet has been the great equaliser. Now we know better not to consume sharks fin or goose liver produced by irresponsible farmers. We also know that bears paws and tiger penises are really pretty stupid, unnecessary and diminishes the already vastly diminished fellow earth inhabitants.

I am totally on the side of most Malaysian palm oil producers, we just have to toe the line. We have to set out what is propaganda, unfair demands, with doing what is right. To that end, why is mainstream media again censoring what we should be hearing or learning - there are so many reports out on palm oil deforestation, reports by Greenpeace, Friends of The Earth, Unilever's position, the scathing BBC documentary, etc. Do not try to shield the Malaysian public from information, even when the information may be slanted, respect your fellow citizens a bit la, let us make up our own minds on the issues. I mean, bloody hell, we need not even read about the effects, we have been actually breathing in the fucking open burning all the way from Indonesia - at least let us read about it and know whats fucking up the air that we breathe. The latest rhetoric came from France, although the biggest press circus on the issues came from British press, and many UK firms have been named and shamed already.



PARIS, April 1 (Reuters) - French firms have stepped up restrictions on the use of palm oil, decried for being linked to deforestation in Asia, in a move that may boost demand for local oils but some warned it could raise new food and land problems. The debate about palm oil's impact on the environment has intensified after green groups published reports last month blaming the way key producers were sourcing their oil by destroying rainforests and threatening endangered species. In France it was amplified by a television broadcast that condemned food makers' use of cheap palm oil to cut costs and referring to health concern that its high level of saturated fat could raise cholesterol and heart diseases.

I agree with most of the concerns on the need to have sustainable palm oil policy, but I get mad when these buggers bring up the "saturated fat, high cholesterol and heart diseases" imbalance again. If you want to use that argument, put palm oil next to all cooking oils, then make the same claims. You cannot just say that AirAsia is cheap and excellent, you have to put it next to competitors in the same category and mark off point by point why it is so. If not, anyone can just say that butter clogs your arteries... fullstop ... that is just stupid and is part of the global propaganda waged by the soy bean, rapeseed, etc.. producers.

The British Clampdown

Most British manufacturers and retailers including Boots, Morrisons and Waitrose have done little to limit the environmental damage done by the production of the world's cheapest vegetable oil. In a survey of leading European food and household firms, the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) said that only Sainsbury's, Marks and Spencer and a handful of other companies had made substantial progress towards sourcing sustainable palm oil.

Continental retailers came out worst in the survey of 59 firms, with many French, German and Dutch chains making no effort to prevent the huge problems caused by the oil's production. The WWF disclosed that 40 of the 59 companies had not bought any oil certified sustainable by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (Rspo) – which sets environmental standards for the £16bn-a-year industry, the most important of which is a ban on planting new oil palms in virgin forests.

Of 25 UK companies, 14 had not bought any Rspo oil – Aldi, Associated British Foods, Croda international, Boots, Warburtons, Britannia Food Ingredients, Waitrose, Morrisons, Jordans Ryvita, Northern Foods, Reckitt Benckiser, Co-op, Premier Foods and Tesco. Out of a maximum of 29 points, WWF scored them between 0 and 16.

However, seven British firms were among the best 10 performers Europe-wide, including Sainsbury's, Marks and Spencer and Cadbury. Among foreign companies, Nestlé, ranked mid-table, this week committed to switching to 100 per cent Rspo oil by 2015.

Unilever
Unilever has stopped accepting palm oil from an Indonesian planter after a damning BBC documentary showing rainforest clearing, according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Board. Unilever, which is part of the Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), did not have a contract with Duta Palma (a known offender), but had been receiving oil from the planter via traders. Two months ago the consumer goods giant brought an end to a $33m supply contract with Indonesian supplier PT Smart.

Unilever, which uses palm oil in its Flora and Stork margarines, Dove toiletries and Persil washing powder among many other products, announced that it is cutting links with Sinar Mas, Indonesia’s largest palm oil company. Unilever is acting after being shown photographic evidence of Sinar Mas clearing rainforest in protected areas, including reserves for the country’s endangered orang-utan population. It cancelled the £20 million annual contract recently after learning that Greenpeace was about to publish a dossier of evidence. Funnily though, Sinar Mas is part of RSPO???!!!... go figure. The RSPO, which also includes Sinar Mas, is a self-regulation body that aims to prevent illegal forest clearance. Environmental groups have criticised it as toothless and an obstacle to independent scrutiny. To access Unilever's beautifully produced PDF on their sustainable products policies, click here:

http://www.unilever.com/images/Palm%20Oil%20-%20A%20Sustainable%20Future%202002_tcm13-5315.pdf


It pays to read through Unilever's document as it already sets out really what is "required". Companies in the palm oil supply chain basically needs to evaluate every step of their production and distribution processes to make sure they try to comply with the principles set out below - then get a proper certification.

Sustainable agriculture / Our definition

Sustainable agriculture is productive, competitive and efficient, while at the same time protecting and improving the natural environment and conditions of the local communities.

Sustainability principles
Unilever believes that sustainable agriculture should support the following principles:
• It should produce crops with high yield and nutritional quality to meet existing and future needs, while keeping resource input as low as possible.
• It must ensure that any adverse effects on soil fertility, water and air quality and biodiversity from agricultural activities are minimised and positive contributions are made where possible.
• It should optimise the use of renewable resources while minimising the use of nonrenewable resources.
• Sustainable agriculture should enable local communities to protect and enhance their well-being and environments.

Since 1998, we have been measuring data against these indicators on our own plantations and using the findings to benchmark and improve sustainable agriculture best practice for palm oil and other crops. Pamol, Unilever’s palm oil plantation company in Malaysia, follows accepted best practices for management of its operations and is striving to improve sustainability still further. Liquid effluent from its two mills is used as a water feed and fertiliser for trees, reducing the amount of synthetic nutrients needed. Leguminous ground cover is grown to prevent soil loss, fix nitrogen and encourage beneficial insects that are natural predators of tree pests. Owls are encouraged to control rats, and empty bunches from the mills and palm fronds are left to decompose naturally under the trees, providing nutrients and helping to curb weed growth. Steep hillsides are left as natural forest, which provides a wildlife refuge, and hunting is not permitted. In addition, Unilever has formed a small taskforce to develop a more transparent sourcing system and standards for palm oil, including contracts, specifications, quality assurance – tracking and tracing – and best practice criteria for plantations. This taskforce aims to work more closely with suppliers who are able and committed to deliver these criteria and who we also hope share our enthusiasm to see progress in the industry on quality assurance and sustainability.

Unilever is the world’s biggest consumer of palm oil and has pledged to buy only from certified sustainable plantations from 2015. This year, 85 per cent of its palm oil was uncertified. Waitrose said this month that all the palm oil in its own-brand products would be from sustainable sources by 2012.NestlĂ© has announced its commitment to using only Certified Sustainable Palm Oil (CSPO) by 2015, when sufficient quantities are expected to be available.

The Facts

Fact #1: The growth of the palm oil industry in Indonesia has turned the country into the third-largest emitter of CO2, after China and the US. Indonesia has the fastest rate of deforestation, losing an area the size of Wales every year. Deforestation contributes 15-20 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions and is one of the key issues debated at the Copenhagen climate change summit.


Fact #2: As the world's oil palm is the highest-yielding commercial oilseed, palm oil production offers more vegetable oil per unit of area than other widely-grown crops including soy, canola, or rapeseed. Thus oil palm expansion on abandoned agricultural lands could offer producers a more effective way to sustainably meet growing demand for vegetable oils than with other oilseeds.

Fact #3: Environmentalists are most concerned by palm oil production that comes at the cost of carbon-dense and biologically-rich rainforests and peatlands. Since 1990 more than half of plantation growth has occurred at the expense of natural forests, boosting greenhouse gas emissions and increasing the vulnerability of endangered species like orangutans, Sumtran rhinos, pygmy elephants, and Sumatran tigers to extinction in the wild. Plantations have also been strongly associated with social conflict in some areas.


IOI


Unilever
said it would not cancel palm oil supply contracts with Malaysia's IOI and that it was confident the planter would address concerns over logging forests raised by a green group. IOI Corp, Malaysia's No. 2 planter, had dismissed the report by Friends of the Earth that it cleared rainforests on Borneo island to expand, saying the allegations were inaccurate.

"We believe IOI is a very responsible supplier and are confident that if there is truth in the current allegations, IOI will address them," Unilever Head of Sustainability Jan-Kees Vis told Reuters in an emailed response on Monday. "There are no plans to cancel any contracts with IOI."

IOI owns about 80,000 hectares of land on the Indonesia side of Borneo island -- a resource rich, forested region that is the frontline for expanding oil palm estates. The Friends of the Earth report also claimed that IOI practiced open burning and drained peatlands, prompting the firm's key customer Neste Oil to say it would conduct its own probe into the matter. IOI supplies palm oil to the Finnish refiner's biofuel plants in Europe.

IOI said in a statement on Friday, without going into the details, that it had set up a clear action list and timeframe to address Friends of the Earth's remaining concerns after meeting with the green group. Both Unilever and Neste Oil have said their supply contracts with palm oil firms include clauses that allow for termination of the agreement if the suppliers are found to be damaging the environment.



Why I Like Ann Joo Resources - Not All Steel Stocks Are The Same


I am getting a bit scared to post up which stocks I like because the SC and Bursa will think I am manipulating or worse, in collusion with syndicates to push up stock prices. I have stated categorically I do not have any links to any syndicates. I guess because the market is hot, investors will tend to react more knee jerk fashion to anything thats in popular finance blogs.

But seriously, if I was in a syndicate, where got so much time and capital to play/move so many stocks? I think there were more than 10 stocks over the last 3 months alone, you think I control every big syndicate or stockist in town aahh?!

Anyways, I will continue to put up stocks I like as the market is active, its a waste not to highlight good stocks that should trade at higher prices. At least people when they follow this blog are buying things with decent fundamentals - you look at the top volume stocks, you cannot find any research report on half of them, what are the buying based on???

Somebody alerted me to the extension of LRT and its impact on the construction industry, and when you put together the local government and regional governments stimulus packages, steel is looking pretty good. However not all steel makers are alike, some you can just throw out the window because they only make for their own Group's consumption.

Following the torrid downturn in 3Q 2008 the 1Q 2009 has been a working down of inventory levels as prices plunged. We have seen spurts of recovery in 2Q 2009 but not convincing. The key is that a lot of the stimulus packages announced by most governments have not kicked in into the real economy. Hence monitoring how China is performing and impacting the steel prices will give very good indication of what's to come.


1) China’s steel prices had been on the uptrend for 15 weeks before a correction in early August 2009. In August domestic re-bar prices in China have eased 24% to 3,560 yuan/tonne from a year-high of 4,674 yuan/tonne due to a surge in inventory in the near-term. However, the price correction will likely be temporary as Chinese steel consumption should accelerate by 4Q09 as piling works for bulk of project’s allocated under China’s massive 4 yuan trillion stimulus are expected to takeoff soon.


2) China has turned into a net importer of steel at 2.7 million tonne in 1H 2009 versus a surplus of 16.7 million tonne a year ago. Looking around the region for indicators, Taiwan’s largest
steel mill, China Steel Corporation, also raised its Average Selling Prices (ASP) on average by NT$1,720 per tonne, or 9% higher, for October and November 2009 delivery - a good leading indicator.

3) Among the local steel players, Ann Joo Resources stands out like a good sore thumb, its ahead of the pack. Despite being in a capital intensive and cyclical industry, Ann Joo has managed to add value, create a more varied platform, and instilling certain competitive advantages to its business model. Cumulative quarterly losses of local steel players have narrowed substantially to RM99mil in 2Q09 against RM429mil in 1Q09 and RM682mil in 4Q08. These drastic improvements largely came on the back of higher volume/selling prices of steel products, stabilising input cost and the notable absence of inventory write-downs. Ann Joo Resources even managed to record a small profit of RM2mil in 2Q09 against a loss of RM39mil in the preceding quarter. Meanwhile, the other four, i.e. Kinsteel Bhd, Malaysia Steel Works Bhd, Lion
Industries Bhd and Southern Steel Bhd, still made losses albeit narrower.

4) Regionally there are encouraging trends of a sustained uptrend in regional steel prices - largely triggered by a re-acceleration of infrastructure works in key markets such as
Vietnam, Indonesia, Abu Dhabi and the Indian subcontinent. Latest locked-in orders for billet exports by Malaysian millers have surged as high as US$515/tonne against its three-year low of US$342/tonne in November 2008. Selling prices have stabilised around the RM2000/tonne-RM2,100/tonne level.

5) Recent round of price cuts in June lasted only two weeks, suggesting that the worse is over as demand/supply dynamics gradually improve. Domestic steel prices may reachRM3,000-3,200/tonne by 2010 due to a resurgence in local steel demand amid potential supply squeeze.


6) Ann Joo to me is worth at least RM3.00 based on a based on a target PE of 8.5x for 2010 earnings. Ann Joo is an excellent proxy to rising steel prices with additional capacity kicker coming from its new blast furnace due for commissioning in April 2010 . Ann Joo should not be compared to other local players as that would always put the company at a premium. It should be at a premium because its a regional player and its business model ranks on par with top regional players. However, Ann Joo trades at a very steep 55% discount relative to its regional peers. You cannot take any other local player and compare with regional players because their business model and reach are well below Ann Joo's expertise and reach.


7) Ann Joo’s valuations now is under appreciated as its efficiency and export-orientated
growth strategy are not fully accounted for. That's why its the first to get back to profitability. Export-orientated steel millers such as Ann Joo (which derive 50% of total sales volume from exports) are benefiting from improved regional billet prices, which have breached the USD500/t mark (vs USD470/t a month ago). Only Ann Joo has such a high export ratio, the rest are less than 30%. To be able to export will give Ann Joo a leg up on recovery in billet prices as the first signs of recovery in prices will be in regional prices - hint, look at Taiwan's forward contracts.

8) Ann Joo has established business relationships with internationally renowned suppliers from Japan and Korea, such as Nippon Steel, Posco, Sumitomo and JFE. It also is one of the two steel players in Malaysia with the UK Certification Authority for Reinforcing Steels (CARES)’s certificate of approval. CARES is an independent, not-for-profit body that offers certification schemes to provide confidence to product users that CARES approved companies comply with the relevant product standards.


9) Ann Joo’s blast furnace (BF) expansion remains on track to start operations in 2Q10. The BF has reached more than 70% completion and the erection and installation work is currently being carried out. The company plans to kick-start its cold commissioning in April 2010 and targets full
commissioning of the plant by June 2010. Ann Joo’s upstream expansion into BF will not only reduce its dependence on scrap metal but will also reduce the group’s total energy costs. The group targets an optimal raw material input of 60% scrap and 40% molten iron.

10) Why RM3.00 ... it has a 3 year EPS CAGR of 18%.
Ann Joo 522.7m shares Market cap RM1.2bn


p/s photo: Alan Dawa Doma

Bursa Improves Tick Size?



Below is the article issued by Bursa Malaysia on the changes to Tick Size, my comments in purple:

Equity investment strategies take account of many factors, including tick sizes which are set by a stock exchange. Here is a primer on tick sizes and how investors benefit from a smaller value.

This educative article is in conjunction with the introduction of a smaller tick size which will be made available by Bursa Malaysia and is planned for implementation on Aug 3.

Equity investors rely a lot on research and information to forecast the potential price appreciation of a stock. This ranges from fundamental analysis of the company to a technical analysis of its historical price movements. There is also a little known indicator known as a spread that can be used by investors to gauge the near-term movement of a particular stock. A stock’s spread is closely influenced by a “tick size”.

Understanding Spreads. Every share that trades on the stock market has a best buy and a best sell price. The best buy price is the highest price in the order book placed by interested buyers for a specific share while the best sell price is the lowest price in the order book placed by interested sellers.

These two prices are determined by demand and supply, which can be seen as a negotiation process between two parties.

The spread is the difference between a share’s best buy and best sell price. The general belief is that a consistently large spread signals low volume for that respective stock.

On the other hand, a narrow spread can indicate that a transaction will occur soon. For example, a stock with a buy/sell price of RM10 and RM10.02 suggests that buyers and sellers are very close to making a trade. If the narrow spread continues, volume for the respective share is expected to be high. A wider spread means that greater changes in the share’s buy or sell price is needed before a transaction can conclude.


Comments:

1) About bloody time.

2) Some who might worry that it now takes a lot more ticks to move a stock are barking up the wrong tree. They would say that for a stock to move from RM3.10 to RM3.20 in the past require only five ticks to be cleared, now it takes buyers to clear ten ticks. That is so silly - that is assuming that each tick has the SAME number of sellers, whether it is 1 sen or 2 sen??!! If today there were 100,000 shares on the sell side, and say the old system would have the 5 ticks with each having 20,000 shares to be sold.... are you telling me that just because you expand the 5 ticks to 10 ticks (same price range) that the sellers would be a lot more??? Its the same number of sellers but it will increase transaction because of narrower spreads.

3) The change will be most important for the RM3.00-RM5.00, followed by the RM5.00 to RM10.00. Many will think the RM5-10 will see greater impact, I tell you that won't be the case. Liquidity improvement will be most marked in counters that are a bit specky. Most shares above RM5 are already too steady. More vibrant activity will be seen in the RM3.00-RM5.00 range.

4) Tick sizes is only a very minor aspect of liquidity, there are still a lot more work to be done if genuine liquidity is to be generated. Just to cite a few: chopping the flimsy counters, speeding up PN17 process (if they cannot restructure or regularise within 4 months, delist them), raise the bar on the "quality" of companies allowed to be listed, push through to delist companies that has less than 3% of total paid up traded each month (each transgression gets 1 warning, more than 3 monthly warnings a year automatic delisting), transparency... more prosecution and implementation of regulatory processes... transgressors must be picked up and dealt with with immediacy, .. and possibly the most important factor... 'free up' the ringgit, allow it to be transactable overseas, no declare this, declare that ... I know BN would want to keep track of hot money flowing in and out for such a small economy like ours, but I believe there are other ways of policing... the current system takes too much "benefits" away from the markets.



p/s photos: Alan Dawa Doma



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