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I was browsing through my older postings and I thought this was pretty good. Good enough to repost here after a year and a half. Something completely different... Readers, do indulge me a bit as I write a short story. I don't even read much fiction, and I don't aspire to be a fiction writer. Its fiction, I tell you, completely fictitious.....
The year was 2006, it was the end of October in Singapore. Sitting idly in her barely rocking, rocking chair - the chair must have seen better times, the ones you know may have existed when Kennedy was president, the rattan barely clinging on to the wooden frame. In many ways, the frail 82 year old lady was barely sitting in her chair. Siu Lan was her name, most of her family has already passed on. She knows she was closer to her time to exit, the way most older folks somehow know.
As the evening soft sun rays bathes her face, her eyes looked as if she was crying but there were no tears. Maybe she has cried all the tears she needed to in her life time. Yet she still cannot believe the events unfolding before her over the last few months.
She lives in Apartment C-412 Lincoln Lodge for over forty years. It was bought for a princely sum of S$85,000 even then. She did not own the apartment but she was told by her lover then that she will be able to live her life out in that grand apartment.
That was forty years ago. Fifty three years ago she was the third mistress of one of Singapore's wealthiest retail tycoon, let's call him Mr. Tang. Those were simpler times, when a man's word meant something. Mr. Tang would also make sure that Siu Lan will be able to get a decent monthly allowance banked into her account for the rest of her life, even after his death. There was no need to draw things up legally then. Those were more decent times. Maybe people were more long-suffering then, maybe they had less distractions, maybe life was simpler then, maybe times were crueler that way too.
Siu Lan, in many ways led a life of quiet desperation. The apartment was bought under one of Mr. Tang's private company. Siu Lan knew her status and her position. She was happy to just have the occasional visit from Mr. Tang. Sometimes its once a month, sometimes not even that. She bore him a daughter, and called her Su Shan, though she now go with the name Susan.For an 82 year old woman, the rest of the world seems to be bypassing her for most of her life. Singapore evolved and developed for most of the 40 years Siu Lan stayed in her apartment.
While the rest of the country modernised, the lady stuck to her ways. She was very house proud, keeping every corner spankingly clean, almost unchanged for most of the 40 years. She stayed indoors most days, went for her evening walks and would then sit at the balcony to enjoy the sunset.
The rest of the world left her alone in her ways, except for when both worlds collided 6 months ago. The whole country was stirred into a frenzy by the "en-bloc sale" extravaganza. Murmurs by the corridors turned into vicious rumours in elevators. An initial offer of S$1.8m was offered a couple of weeks later. That was later raised to S$2.1m and was accepted by more than 96% of the owners. All were instant millionaires, when you consider that the market price was just $1.2m last year. Well, almost all...
As Siu Lan sat in her barely rocking chair, her eyes was welling up like a well of her memories. She had to move out of her apartment. But it was more than a place of abode for her. Did she loved her man, she asked herself. She could not say for certain, after all, a woman then usually followed the path that was dictated to her, rather than making out a path for herself. But that was all she had. A large part of her identity was being the mistress of Mr. Tang.
When he passed away twelve years back, she dare not attend his funeral, she wasn't invited, she wasn't welcomed, she wasn't even notified of his passing till three weeks after the funeral. Now she has to move out of the apartment.
She did not begrudge him for not transferring the apartment to her name. It never came up. To her, the apartment was more than just an apartment. It was a testament of the relationship she had. She had never been with another man all her life. That boxed her in, or rather she willingly was enclosed, or she did not have a choice. How to have a choice when your options are so limited then?
Mr. Tang's two sons from the first wife knew of her existence many years back. They allowed her to stay on but stopped the monthly payments six months after their father passed away. They voted in favour of the en-bloc sale.She could have ranted and complained but that was not her nature. She ate her bitterness all her life and the moments of joy, far and few in between, were deep in the recesses of her memory.
A week before she was due to move out of her apartment, Siu Lan commited suicide. The coroner wrote that the cause of death was suicide, only that that wasn't the cause of her death.
1) The stock market effect in Malaysia - If you were to look at the financial turmoil in the past, namely, the mid-late 80s, the blip in 1994, the major monster of 97, the internet bust, the SARS effect, the tsunami effect and now the credit implosion... you can chart a very useful multiplier effect from losses in the stock markets. Prior to 2000, any kind of financial bust ups will see a lot of havoc and bad debts, ask any remisier... Following moves to limit contra and contango trades, this has removed a HUGE "leveraged disaster" from the domestic economy.
I can give you the excellent example of my 6 analysts working with me in mid 90s, their monthly salaries between RM3,000-10,000 and basically under 30 and real net worth probably zero. But each and everyone of them will have zero deposit with 2 or 3 remisiers, but personally will have a contra position of between RM100,000-300,000 in a few stocks depending on the mood of the market. This is not unique to my team of people, everybody everywhere were doing it. Naturally we always see a huge multiplier effect when the market corrects 10% over a week.
Since 2000 every major financial calamity has not seen similar catastrophic personal financial aftermaths. Now you try to buy RM50,000 worth of share with zero deposit, your remisier will ask you to fly wau. This market correction was also unique to the majority of retail stock players. Many were able to sell down most of their stocks or just stop playing stocks when the market retreated from 1,400 to 1,200... sure some will still hold a few stocks in their portfolio but many have been able to avoid the carnage. When a market falls from 1,400 to 850 its the holders of the shares that bear the brunt.
This time around retail players have been able to sidestep much of the disaster movie, its the funds that got whacked royally this time, ... local, hedge and foreign. Thus this will further help explain why most Malaysians are still relatively cash rich and under invested. Fewer job losses and fewer after effects from the stock markets = less likelihood to need to sell properties in desperation.
Hence market commentators should keep this in mind when comparing similar wealth effects prior to 2000 and after. The magnitude of the above financial effect on the broader population should not be underestimated.
2) The expatriates wave in Singapore - Singapore's population, on its own does not really grow on a net basis. However if we were to look total population from mid-2003 till mid-2008, Singapore's population grew by an incredible 17.6% to4.84m. Largely that came from a surge in expatriate staffing. That was an increase of 724,600. Official estimates had it that of the 724,600 some 546,700 were foreigners (expats) and permanent residents. If you were to assume that there were 3 per household, that would work out to an increased demand for 182,233 condo/house either for rental purposes or for purchase.
The large jump in expats and PRs were due to a sharp increase in business services segment, in particular hedge funds and more importantly private banking. The other segment of the industry which was significant was the boom related to the integrated resorts projects. When there is a major structural change in a country's infrastructure and/or the additional of a significant and viable new industry, it tends to attract a lot of investments and liquidity to partake in the euphoria. Needless to say, foreign investors piled into surrounding properties and new developments.
The wave was so strong that many developers were confident enough to lure the best architects to build the best of class condos in Singapore. The interest was so significant that pricing was at the very top end of global condo valuation standards. It even flowed into Sentosa in a big way.
To meet the increase in demand for high end housing, en-bloc sales became very popular. Developers were willing to pay a huge premium to secure good locations. They will then tear it down and build a new swanky and pricier place. En-bloc sales resulted in many Singapore owners suddenly turning into multimillionaires. That in itself, feed well into the demand for the pricier new condos as well. If your condo was worth S$1.0m in 2003, it could have been sold for S$1.8m in 2005 in an en-bloc sale. Assuming you had some mortgage left, you may still have a cash position of S$1.0m-$1.5m. That would be more than sufficient to pay down payment for the pricier new developments, maybe even flip them a few times thus tripling that capital within a short period.
The credit implosion will hit Singapore harder because of the "property and expat situation" cited above. Credit Suisse estimated that some 200,000 expats could leave Singapore in 2009, or a net drop of 160,000.
On the local front, Singaporeans themselves could see a net job loss of at least 100,000 among themselves in 2009.
p/s photos: Nia Ramadhani
