Looking Back On Returns

For the first quarter of 2009 I don't think I recommended to look at any one stock as I was not convinced of a rally or a substantive run. The good thing about blogging is that your views are all there to be examined, scrutinsed and criticised ... but it also allows you to reflect and note how your views evolve. Like a diary, the most notable postings started around April 24 this year (can go and check). Its fun to look at how things have turned out, bearing in mind that my assertion that stocks I like should have at least a 30% upside within 6 months, so far so good. If I can get a batting average of 65%, I am happy. There are not many runs in a year for a market like Malaysia, once its there, you have to seize the day and then exit when things are looking dowdy. Usually you can count on 2 runs a year lasting anywhere from 4 -15 weeks each time. Bull markets do not make us smarter, it makes picking winners easier.

FBM 100 Gainers and Losers In August 2009
Top 20 Gainers TR
IJM LAND BHD 23.13%
MULTI-PURPOSE 20.93%
SARAWAK OIL PALMS 18.57%
PROTON HOLDINGS BHD 12.13%
SUNWAY CITY BHD 11.51%
TITAN CHEMICALS CORP BHD 11.32%
MAH SING GROUP BHD 9.78%
BOUSTEAD HEAVY INDUSTRIES CO 9.66%
LINGKARAN TRANS KOTA HLDGS 7.57%
AXIATA GROUP BERHAD 7.14%
SELANGOR PROPERTIES BERHAD 7.14%
AEON CO (M) BHD 6.67% UBG BHD -4.94%
KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD 6.40%
TAN CHONG MOTOR HOLDINGS BHD 5.95%
EON CAPITAL BHD 5.60%
AFFIN HOLDINGS BERHAD 5.56%
GUINNESS ANCHOR BHD 5.48%
AMMB HOLDINGS BHD 4.78%
PETRONAS DAGANGAN BHD 4.78%
PPB GROUP BERHAD 4.63%

Source: Bloomberg Note: TRs (total returns), CG (capital gain) & DY (div yield)

Looking Back

April 24 - Confirmation of A Bull Run For Bursa
April 24 - Stocks & Sectors I Like As CI Breaches 1,000 (Property: SP Setia, UEM Land, even Talam, Sunway City, even MK Land. Financials: AMMB, EON Cap). ... safe to say that these property and financial picks outperformed the market substantially ... so far
April 27 - Talam Coming Out Of PN17 0.08 ... had a good run for a while even at 0.14 or 0.15 at some point I believe, still the run should come when its officially out of PN17
April 28 - MK Land Is Pretty Oversold 0.28 ... now at 0.40 but went as high as 0.47, we got our 30% or more
May 1 - Sell In May & Go Away " History repeats itself for a reason, because they do, people never learn and they keep repeating their actions and decisions time in time out. This is the same posting I did 4 years back in May 2006, and repeated this in May 2008, so for all intents and purposes, I should also repost this for May 2009. Personally, I don't think this May-August will be a down period."
May 5 - Stock Picks For A Nice Trade ... these were ok performers, not spectacular, its for a quick trade, if it works good, if not, get out...
SAAG long up to 0.29
Sapuracrest long up to 1.24
IOI Corp long up to 4.50
Kulim-WB long up to 3.32
Kulim long up to 6.00
May 7 - Go Long On The Brokers .. these were good runs, TA went to 1.27 (now 1.20), Affin went to 2.04 (now 1.88), ECM went to 0.78 (now 0.63), HDBS went to 1.75 (now 1.58), Kenanga went to 0.75 (now 0.65), OSK went to 1.58 (now 1.39)
TA long up to 1.03
TA-WB long up to 0.06
Affin long up to 1.77
Affin-WC up to 0.14
ECM long up to 0.66
HDBS long up to 1.45
Kenanga up to 0.68
OSK long up to 1.38
May 29 - Why I Like Pelikan 0.98 ... possibly the best call so far, now still at 1.52, we got our 30% here
June 4 - A Timely Look At B-Land & B-Toto 3.26 / 4.74 .. both did well, especially B-Land
June 11 - Tanjong, This One Can Buy & Hold 13.00 ... now at 15.82, up 21% so far, a bit more to go to get our 30%
June 11 - Whoops! There It Is (GenM) 2.90 ... now at 2.79, not good, I would cut now ..
June 23 - I Like Green Packet At Current Levels 0.70 ... very good entry levels at 0.70, now share price still at 0.705 but I get 1 right and 1 warrant basically FREE for every 2 shares, great return, easily way past 30%
July 13 - Market Commentary - "I don't like many stocks now as I think markets do look tired, but if you point a gun to my head to force me to buy one stock to hold till rest of they year, I would probably say E&O" 1.04 ...if anybody read this closely, they would have made a bundle, went ballistic today to a high of 1.52
July 17 - Why I Would Buy Astro Now 3.62 .. 3.43 now, news did not filter out as I had hoped, wishy washy developments, sell
July 24 - Why I Am Keen On MPHB Now 1.58 ... 2.11 now, we got 33%, enough
August 4 - Why I Like DRB Hicom 1.13 ... went towards 1.30 but fizzled out, still very keen on this, can hold on
August 12 - Why I Like IJM Land 1.81 ... went to 2.05, now at 1.98, will wait for my 30%
August 21 - Why I Like Bumi-Commerce Bank 10.30 ...recent call...
August 27 - Why I Like QL Resources 3.34 ...recent call ...

The above were views on stocks and sectors that I like, not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

p/s photo: Fiona Xie

Strategic Stakes Taken By International Funds

Malaysian Companies To Watch

The following are significant stakes taken up by some international funds with a decent investing record in Malaysia. I will also rate the attractiveness of their investment out of ten. Bears watching.

Newton Investment Management Ltd is a big UK based fund. The fund has bought 42 million shares, a stake of 8.2% in Bursa Malaysia (the exchange). Its last reported purchase was for 305,000 shares on March 3. The fund's buying could a be a momentum play following the takeover bid by Macquarie for London Stock Exchange last year. That was rebuffed and was topped by Nasdaq by offering nearly a bid nearly 80% higher than Macquarie's a few weeks back. Bursa is making good money despite being so-so managed currently, so the potential for higher returns are good. Readers of this blog know how I feel about Bursa's management - probably ruling myself out for a job offer from Bursa. Good medium term investment by Newton Investment Management Ltd. (Rating 7.5/10)

The Capital Group, one of the largest mutual funds in the US, has been buying shares in IJM Corp Bhd. It last reported buying 403,100 IJM shares last week, which raised its stake to 9.9% in IJM. Capital Group owns many stocks in this country, including a substantial stake in property developer SP Setia Bhd. The move by The Capital Group to load up on construction and property probably has a lot to do with the broad view that these are main beneficiaries of the 9th Malaysia Plan, especially IJM, I think SP Setia's favoured more due to their township in the offering and their clever buildup of strategic landbanks. SP Setia's offering of Setia Pearl Island in Penang is a very much sought after project. (Rating 6.5/10)

Fidelity, billed as the largest mutual fund in the US, has been active in buying Mah Sing shares this year. Firstly, Mah Sing almost has to come back from the dead a few years ago. The company still suffers an image problem in Malaysia among investors. However, kudos to management for really rebranding the company. Its recent launches of Damansara Perdana and Aman Perdana in the Klang Valley were good value and attractive. Even bigger kudos for Fidelity to have the guts to look past reputation and on fundamentals alone. (Rating 8/10)

Pelikan International Corp Bhd has the Arisaig Asean Fund Ltd as a substantial shareholder, which bought Pelikan shares right up to last week. Arisaig Asean Fund, listed on the Irish Stock Exchange, is also a large shareholder of Uchi Technologies Bhd. Now, Uchi is a firm favourite among many analysts for the past few years, and Arisaig would have made a lot of money from their stake in Uchi. I expect similar results from Pelikan, albeit taking a bit longer than Uchi. Pelikan is the result of a LBO. Strange because 95% of revenues come from outside of Malaysia, main factory is in Voehrum, Germany, and the company is now Malaysian owned. The CEO and management is still saddled with a huge debt and is working hard to penetrate markets to payoff the funding. Europe accounts for the bulk of their stationery product market, but has made in-roads into Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe. The brand is sound, currently trades at low PERs, good yield, more and more long term funds are buying long terms stakes in the company. A deal with Parkson Retail in China brought immediate exposure for Pelikan in 37 outlets in China. (Rating 6/10)

Hedge fund Level Global Investors L.P. bought 10.4 million shares, a stake of 5.2%, in Jobstreet Corp Bhd last month. Global Investors' interest could have been attracted by Jobstreet's mid-teens' PE whereas its counterparts in the US, Australia and China are traded at PEs of over 30 times. A consolidation will come soon in Asia. Better funded job sites such as Monster.com could so easily swallow up the company, or a company like Google would not be averse to latch onto Jobstreet for its market visibility in Asia-Pacific. Still, Jobstreet remains a "only-if" play, i.e. price will shoot up only-if someone buys the company. (Rating 6/10)

Aberdeen Asset Management has bought a 5.92% stake in one of my favoured Imaginative Investing picks, Pos Malaysia. The bulk of the shares was only acquired in the first 2 months this year. Mail and courier revenue are still on an uptrend, we expect courier services to be a major jewel that is still not yet recognised by investors. Once you have wired the hotspots and delivery points, you cost per courier delivery is close to nil but these are premium services you can charge for. No one can match Pos Malaysia's breadth and width in delivery points, others can only replicate a small part of it. You have the platform, now the kicker is Pos Malaysia's 20.3% stake in Transmile Holdings. Transmile now acts like a feeder to international courier and cargo services for Pos, in and out of Malaysia. Since Robert Kuok has taken over Transmile, its performance has been spectacular, thanks to Kuok's way of doing business. Hence both companies I like very much. A brilliant move by Aberdeen's Hugh Young. (Rating 9.5/10)