A Jolly (Adult) Christ-mass To All


WHY IS A CHRISTMAS TREE BETTER THAN A MAN

  1. A Christmas tree is always erect.
  2. Even small ones give satisfaction.
  3. A Christmas tree stays up for 12 days and nights.
  4. A Christmas tree always looks good - even with the lights on.
  5. A Christmas tree is always happy with its size.
  6. A Christmas tree has cute balls.
  7. A Christmas tree doesn't get mad if you break one of its balls.
  8. You can throw a Christmas tree out when it's past its 'sell by' date.
  9. You don't have to put up with a Christmas tree all year.

Why a Christmas Tree Is Better Than a Woman

  • 10. A Christmas tree doesn't care how many other Christmas trees you have had in the past.
  • 09. Christmas trees don't get mad if you use exotic electrical devices.
  • 08. A Christmas tree doesn't care if you have an artificial one in the closet.
  • 07. A Christmas tree doesn't get mad if you break one of its balls.
  • 06. You can feel a Christmas tree before you take it home.
  • 05. A Christmas tree doesn't get mad if you look up underneath it.
  • 04. When you are done with a Christmas tree you can throw it on the curb and have it hauled away.
  • 03. A Christmas tree doesn't get jealous around other Christmas trees.
  • 02. A Christmas tree doesn't care if you watch football all day.
  • 01. A Christmas tree doesn't get mad if you tie it up and throw it in the back of your pickup truck.

SANTA'S PICK UP LINES

  • I know when you`ve been bad or good -- so let's skip the small talk, sister!
  • Hey Babe, when was the last time you did it in a sleigh?
  • Ever make it with a fat guy with a whip?
  • I know when you`ve been bad or good -- so let's skip the small talk, sister!
  • Some of my best toys run on batteries...
  • I see you when you're sleeping - and you don't wear any underwear, do you?
  • Screw the "nice" list -- I've got you on my "nice AND naughty" list!
  • Wanna join the "Mile High" club?
  • That's not a candy cane in my pocket, honey. I'm just glad to see you!

Christmas Carols for the Psychiatrically Challenged

SCHIZOPHRENIA -
Do You Hear What I Hear?


MULTIPLE PERSONALITY -

We Three Kings Disoriented Are.


DEMENTIA -
I Think I'll Be Home For Christmas.

NARCISSISTIC -
Hark The Herald Angels Sing (About Me)

MANIA -
Deck the Halls and Walls and House and Lawn and Streets and and Office and Town ...or Deck the Halls and Spare No Expense!

PARANOIA -
Santa Claus is Coming To Get Me.

PERSONALITY DISORDER -

You Better Watch Out, I'm Gonna Cry, I'm Gonna Pout, then MAYBE I'll tell you why.


DEPRESSION -

Silent anhedonia, Holy anhedonia. All is calm, All is pretty lonely.


OBSESSIVE COMPULSIVE DISORDER-

Jingle Bell, Jingle Bell, Jingle Bell Rock, Jingle Bell, Jingle Bell, Jingle Bell Rock, Jingle Bell, Jingle Bell, Jingle Bell Rock, Jingle Bell, Jingle Bell, Jingle Bell Rock, Jingle Bell, Jingle Bell, Jingle Bell Rock, Jingle Bell, Jingle Bell, Jingle Bell Rock, Jingle Bell, Jingle Bell, Jingle Bell Rock, Jingle Bell, Jingle Bell, Jingle Bell Rock, Jingle Bell... (
YOU GET THE IDEA)
OBSESSIVE COMPULSIVE PERSONALITY-
The Twelve Days of Christmas

(don't make me repeat that again)

BORDERLINE PERSONALITY -

Thoughts of Roasting in an Open Fire.


PASSIVE/AGGRESSIVE -

Silent Night

How To Look For Markets' Bottom



This piece of advice is probably worth millions to the right person. Giving this away free on my blog is almost altruistic
; ) Sometimes when we have certain "information" or " smart ideas", we tend to sock them away to make it work for our benefit.

There's not much wrong with that, its how rich people think and act.

Well, another way rich and wealthy people act is to ask "questions", questions seeking views and ideas, its free anyway. You'd be surprised how prevalent that is, and nobody would be thinking of "paying back" a fee to the ideas/views generator.
I could do the same and not share, anyway a blog does not make me money. So, here's my Christmas gift to all.

How to look for markets' bottom this time around. You look around, there are so many stocks trading at 3 or 4 times PER, there are so many trading at just 0.2-03 book value, how to pick, when to buy? You switch on CNBC, everyday is a time to buy and sell, depending on who you are listening to.

We all know that 5 years out anyone who bought well would do very well. However, you also want to know you are buying into a genuine recovery. Seriously real bottoms are unattainable, but we can keep a lookout for catalysts that signify a genuine recovery.


Cheap valuations are a reflection of risk aversion, the rush to US Treasuries is a sure sign of risk aversion, the rush to USD and yen are a sign of definite risk aversion.

Gem #1: Markets will only start a genuine recovery when risk aversion subsides

Gem#2: Risk aversion reduction will be immediately reflected in weaker USD and yen


The fall in USD over the last two days is more due to the zero interest rate regime enacted by Federal Reserve, so that should not be a sign of risk aversion reduction.


The best guide for locating current markets' bottom: WHEN USD and YEN BOTH STARTS TO FALL IN VALUE in a sustained pattern.
When these two currencies fall, it show a willingness to move exposure into other currencies or assets, be it stock or bonds. Before they are reflected in the prices, the signal will be most apparent in the currencies.

However, even then we cannot really ascertain a buying trigger. So, my advice would be to break up you investing funds into 3 portions, get ready your list of stocks to buy.


Catalyst #1: When yen/usd rate moves back to 94, plonk down 1/3 of your funds


Catalyst #2: When the rate moves to 97, move the second portion


Catalyst #3: When the rate breaks 100, move the rest in


A point not missed here is that if yen weakens against the USD, the latter would be gaining in strength. However, I am using the yen/usd rate as a guide, as I believe when the yen starts to weaken, the USD would also weaken, but not by as much - i.e. the USD would gain ground against yen but at the same time lose ground against the euros and other major currencies. I use the yen/usd rate because that is most widely followed. The yen is used as the determinant because it was the most popular currency for carry trades, the unbelievable strength now is due to risk aversion as the Japanese exporters are basically losing money and cannot compete below 90.

Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays!


p/s photos: Lim Yoona

Language Skills


Roden has left a new comment on your post "Problem With Today's Young Graduates":

I believe a lot of Chinese face the dilemma to choose what language you want to master, mandarin or English? Especially in Malaysia and Singapore, English is so important in commercial world, it is a tool, a key to access various source of knowledge.

However, language is our soul, it has reflected our culture inherent from thousands years, it shape our mind and thinking. Some people see the Malaysia Chinese fighting to against using English to teach math and science in primary school, I think they would doubt it is necessary. Chinese school boy from Chinese speaking community should be having their "inner-conversation" with their mother tongue, which is easy for them to think and to learn in their mother tongue.

Using other language to learn, it could be a mental process obstacle. One thing for sure, whatever language we learn, we must masters it before we could use that language to express in deep and profound idea. It is extremely difficult to master Chinese and English at the same time, even Singapore MML in his book has admitted, which he wrote his experienced to learn Mandarin. It is naïve to think you would be smooth in China business world or comunity if you can speak mandarin, your mandarin should reach to certain level to understand their metaphor which related to china ancient history.

However, it is matter of choice, if you choose to master your Chinese, then say bye bye to MNC companies, u unlikely reach the top or high ranking in MNC Companies, you unlikely to be some one like Dali, able to access various kind of knowledge in financial industry for the first hand information, and write such a great blog. However, the door is open for you to understand the masterpieces of china ancient knowledge and philosophy, some Chinese ancient book lost most of the meaning when translate into English. How wonderful and complicated that every Chinese character actually is a picture. You master Chinese; you should be able to swim like a fish in China man Company, where the rule is “no rule but hidden rule”.

Personal opinion, Malaysian Chinese should fight on using their mother tongue to learn math and science. Whereas, the other group of Chinese forgoes the mandarin and master in English, heading to specific industry that could not do without English. After all, although using different language, other race still calls us Chinese.

p/s photos: Zhou Wei Tong

Export Trend In Asia


The export trend in Asia:

    Overview of Individual Countries

  • China: Chinese exports contracted 2% y/y in November, though imports slumped more. Trade surplus $40.2b, the 4th consecutive record monthly trade surplus as commodity prices falls eroded import growth. Processing trade components have shown the sharpest slowing
  • Japan: Export value was down -7.7% yoy in Oct-08 (biggest drop in 7 years), export volume was down -6.1% yoy. Exports to developed nations are expected to fall further and will likely have a negative impact on Japan's already slowing exports to Asia
  • Singapore: Govt expects exports to contract by 4% in 2008; exports fell 5.7% in Sep (-13.9% in Aug) led by electronics, pharma, semiconductors. non-electronics fell -1.9%; exports to EU fell -23.6% and to U.S. fell -24.5%
  • Taiwan: Exports contracted sharply in November plunging about 20% y/y, driven by a sharp drop in exports to other Asian countries since September. All tech exports declined drop in exports to China was particularly sharp (down 40% y/y)
  • Malaysia: Exports fell 2.6% in Oct led by lower electronic and commodity exports after growing 15% in Sep. Export growth moderated in Q3 but stayed firm at 16.9% (Q208: 20.8%) due to high exports price and sustained demand of resource-based products; global slowdown, easing oil, commodity prices pose risk to commodity exports and current a/c surplus
  • South Korea: Slowing IT, semiconductor exports; export growth led by price not volume gains; oil prices will lead to current a/c deficit this year
  • Hong Kong: volume of domestic exports fell -24.1% in July, re-exports rose 8.8%, volume of total exports rose 7.3%, volume of imports rose 10.9%; exports to U.S. and Japan and also China declining.
  • Thailand: Contribution of net exports to GDP might fall to 13% in 3Q08 from 16% in 2Q08. Export volume might grow 6.2% yoy Q3 from 9% yoy in 1H08
  • Philippines: Jan-Jul trade deficit rose over 200% y/y on oil, rice and steel costs; resilience of non-electronic exports due to price than volume effects; commodity correction pose downside risk to non-electronics primary goods exports
  • Indonesia: Exports fell 11.61% in Oct on declining oil and gas exports (-25.72%) as well as non-oil and gas exports (-8%); exports to China, India helping offset weakness in U.S. In Jan-Oct, exports increased 26.92% y/y. Exports slowed to 14.3% y/y in Q3
  • Vietnam: Export turnover falling on decreasing crude, coal, and rice prices; Weak sales in apparel, coffee, seafood slowed exports to U.S. but exports as a whole increased 39% in Sep (fastest growth since 2005)
  • India: Exports growth declined -12.1% y/y in Oct (first time since 2001) amid US and EU recession after growing 10.4% in Sep and 30.9% in H1-08. Earnings of IT exporting companies hit on U.S. slowdown as U.S. (financial) companies (a/c for 60% of service exports) slow their IT spending
p/s photos: Saki Fukuda

Personal Success & Effectiveness - A Matter Of Luck???


A reader sent me this opinion page from International Herald ribue dated 16 december, almost on the same topic: parents/young adults under-achieving. The opinion was by David Brooks and was a commentary cum review of Malcolm Gladwell's controversial book "Outliers". My comments in purple.

All day long, you are affected by large forces. Genes influence your intelligence and willingness to take risks. Social dynamics unconsciously shape your choices. (This sentence is exceptionally true - social dynamics shape your choices, they shape what your kids can or cannot have) Instantaneous perceptions set off neural reactions in your head without you even being aware of them.

Over the past few years, scientists have made a series of exciting discoveries about how these deep patterns influence daily life. Nobody has done more to bring these discoveries to public attention than Malcolm Gladwell.

Gladwell's important new book, "Outliers," seems at first glance to be a description of exceptionally talented individuals. But in fact, it's another book about deep patterns. Exceptionally successful people are not lone pioneers who created their own success, he argues. They are the lucky beneficiaries of social arrangements. (This is where Brooks and myself strongly disagree with Gladwell, it is oversimplified to think that highly successful people are the end result of a pinball mish-mash of lucky opportunities - or what Gladwell would refer as "social arrangements")

As Gladwell told Jason Zengerle of New York magazine: "The book's saying, 'Great people aren't so great. Their own greatness is not the salient fact about them. It's the kind of fortunate mix of opportunities they've been given."'

Gladwell's noncontroversial claim is that some people have more opportunities than other people. (Yes, that is a given, some people born lucky would have better access to opportunities and networking which may pull strings and influence people to help one get ahead) Bill Gates was lucky to go to a great private school with its own computer at the dawn of the information revolution. Gladwell's more interesting claim is that social forces largely explain why some people work harder when presented with those opportunities.

Chinese people work hard because they grew up in a culture built around rice farming. Tending a rice paddy required working up to 3,000 hours a year, and it left a cultural legacy that prizes industriousness. (Here is where Gladwell completely makes all Asian readers cringe, ... what a whole load of crap... Chinese people work hard because they are fanatical about making a decent living, because they have a strong entrepreneurial streak in them, because they are big on risk taking, because they are not willing to accept their condition by which the world has given to them, because they believe they can do better rather than just stand still... not because they planted fucking paddy???!!!) Many upper-middle-class American kids are raised in an atmosphere of "concerted cultivation," which inculcates a fanatical devotion to meritocratic striving.

In Gladwell's account, individual traits play a smaller role in explaining success while social circumstances play a larger one. (Gee, that point by Gladwell makes me want to write my own book on the topic... even though I am not a qualified educator or social psychologist) As he told Zengerle, "I am explicitly turning my back on, I think, these kind of empty models that say, you know, you can be whatever you want to be. Well, actually, you can't be whatever you want to be. The world decides what you can and can't be." (Malcolm, you just lost all your beans on that one ... while telling a kid that you can be whatever you want is mostly blind optimism, it is also NOT TRUE that the world decides what we can be or can't be ... the decision rest mostly in the "values and conditioning" a kid gets when he/she is young, then they will decide what they can or cannot do within their sphere of abilities ... you cannot be a mathematician when you are piss poor in maths. How you are brought up will somewhat shape the available choices, as Gladwell would say ... but how that person is able to recognise, develop and apply his inherent abilities and traits are not due to social circumstances - it has to do with instilling the right values, character traits, leading by example, opening up the kid to deductive reasoning, making the kid aware of the landscape of human frailty, human suffering, human potential and empathy, and making sure the kid understands that they need to be independent and be an effective citizen...)

As usual, Gladwell intelligently captures a larger tendency of thought - the growing appreciation of the power of cultural patterns, social contagions, memes. His book is being received by reviewers as a call to action for the Obama age. It could lead policymakers to finally reject policies built on the assumption that people are coldly rational utility-maximizing individuals. It could cause them to focus more on policies that foster relationships, social bonds and cultures of achievement.

Yet, I can't help but feel that Gladwell and others who share his emphasis are getting swept away by the coolness of the new discoveries. They've lost sight of the point at which the influence of social forces ends and the influence of the self-initiating individual begins. (Here is where David Brooks and I are on the same page, we both think Gladwell is talking crap)

Most successful people begin with two beliefs: The future can be better than the present, and I have the power to make it so. They were often showered by good fortune, but relied at crucial moments upon achievements of individual will. (Agreed)

Most successful people also have a phenomenal ability to consciously focus their attention. We know from experiments with subjects as diverse as obsessive-compulsive disorder sufferers and Buddhist monks that people who can self-consciously focus attention have the power to rewire their brains.

Control of attention is the ultimate individual power. People who can do that are not prisoners of the stimuli around them. They can choose from the patterns in the world and lengthen their time horizons. This individual power leads to others. It leads to self-control, the ability to formulate strategies in order to resist impulses. If forced to choose, we would all rather our children be poor with self-control than rich without it.

It leads to resilience, the ability to persevere with an idea even when all the influences in the world say it can't be done. A common story among entrepreneurs is that people told them they were too stupid to do something, and they set out to prove the jerks wrong.

It leads to creativity. Individuals who can focus attention have the ability to hold a subject or problem in their mind long enough to see it anew.

Gladwell's social determinism is a useful corrective to the Homo economicus view of human nature. It's also pleasantly egalitarian. (Yes, Gladwell's theory is egalitarianm whilch appeals to the those who thinks social engineering is a credible and laudable science - e.g. the whole of Singapore) The less successful are not less worthy, they're just less lucky. (Putting it mildly, THAT IS B.S. of the highest order... save your kids from that B.S.) But it slights the centrality of individual character and individual creativity. And it doesn't fully explain the genuine greatness of humanity's outliers. (Agreed)

As the classical philosophers understood, examples of individual greatness inspire achievement more reliably than any other form of education. If Gladwell can reduce William Shakespeare to a mere product of social forces, I'll buy 25 more copies of "Outliers" and give them away in Times Square.

p/s photos: Marsha Timothi


Most Counterfeited Products


1) Computer chips (piracy robs about $100bn of sales annually)

2) Footwear (annual loss of $12bn to piracy)

3) Apparel/clothing (annual loss $12bn to piracy)

4) Consumer electronics (in particular cell phones and batteries)

5) Handbags, wallets and backpacks

6) Watches (I love `em)

7) Pharamceuticals (now this is unconscionable). Pfizer's Viagra and Norvasc are the most popular fakes.

8) Sunglasses (people, sunglasses selling at below RM20 may do harm to your eyes)

9) Software (annual loss to piracy $34bn), most popular was Symantec Norton Anti Virus, followed by Adobe Acrobat

10) and making the tenth spot, the most counterfeited things are accents!


p/s but I think for a balanced view, we should also look at how many jobs have been created thanks to piracy (tongue in cheek)...

p/p/s photos: Kelly Lin

More On The Young & Restless Graduates


Jaxartesad

to me
show details 12:49 PM (6 minutes ago)
Reply

Jaxartesad has left a new comment on your post "Problem With Today's Young Graduates":

Excepting the obvious difference of time and place of the Malaysia context, you are describing students I taught 15 years ago at one of the UK’s top 3 universities. Included in my comment would also be postgraduate level students.

Such was my state of disillusionment I left after 3 years and went full time into international business. Prior to the University work I worked for a few years in senior Government posts. Now I work in investment banking.

The most depressing aspect of it is, despite living in what should be a world of global access, thus fostering a wide perspective and range of inputs, in fact, events, decisions, and interpretation of such is done in a narrow mono dimensional sense. Summarised by your comment on exam questions – they are taught there is one answer to every question. Give the rehearsed, template answer – question answered. Simple. That was the case in the UK even 15 years ago.

In fact it is often a stage worse. For each topic the same parrot answer is often trotted out almost regardless of the question. That outcome is merely another version of your lack of analytical ability point. This is the most telling and limiting factor; brain dead graduates working for brain dead senior managers. It’s a rot that set in many years back. And its a self-reinforcing cycle.

Until about 1973, when fiscal types started taking over Uni management, the Uni where I taught (international politics) insisted that all students regardless of faculty must for the first 2 years of Uni take compulsory courses in logic and philosophy. The reasons why this was “policy” and deemed essential are, I would have thought, self-evident.

Today I too interview people. But only when I can rouse myself from my boredom. Probably about 8 weeks ago I interviewed the absolutely typical mid-level manager from one of the Big 4. Usual “impressive reading” CV. Substance? Value-add? – virtually nil. Another individual hopelessly adrift from reality as well as lacking an ability to make sensible conversation if we were not talking about audit, accounts or reporting. When asked e.g. about whether the assumptions that were underwriting the audit made sense – the response was one of puzzlement, not so much that there were no assumptions (very few of course) but that someone should question whether the assumptions made sense. Regardless of how many times and from how many different angles I asked about what should be considered when looking at an M&A or “a deal” the answer was always the same – an audit will tell us how the company works, the true value of the asset, whether the management know what they are doing and the potential for the deal to succeed in the market.

This I should add was a conversation about deals in (Asian) emerging markets – where essentially I have been involved for 20+ years in one way or another.

And that was a fairly typical interview. Nothing special or unexpected.

I wonder, would there be any point giving my interviewee a copy of Studwell’s “Asian Godfathers”? Probably not; 90% of the facts, names and places in it would be completely unknown to the reader; the historical context would be a black hole (as we deal with people who live in a world where if something didn’t happen in the last 3-5 years, it didn’t happen); and the structural analysis of intangibles as presented by Studwell would be an exercise in hopelessness as we deal with people who struggle vainly to envisage, let alone explain and anticipate, something they cannot see or touch.

A UK-based friend who works at the top levels of an important UK institution summed up similar things the other day to me in an email as pertains to the senior management of his workplace: “There is no requirement for expertise or for command of foreign languages, we have the Internet”.

Little Bear

to me
show details 12:48 PM (17 minutes ago)
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Little Bear has left a new comment on your post "Problem With Today's Young Graduates":

10-20 years ago, our education system was in much better shape. Teachers in school were trained in proper colleges setup under the old british regime. Most of them have since retired or are already retiring. The new bunch of teachers are poorly trained and consist of those who didn't quite make it into the universities. Without good qualified teachers, how do we get good students?

10 years ago there was very limited space available in universities. Only the top students got in. Now university entrance is a foregone conclusion as long as you are not mentally challenged.

Most of the people who get into universities today, do not deserve to be there. People who score ~20 points (adjust that for how easy it is to score nowadays, and you'll see how poor some of them can be) in SPM can easily get into degree programs nowadays. University entrance is a joke.

Once they get in, universities pander to the "customers". Faculty members aren't allowed to fail students because that would
a. make the school look bad,
b. parents will blame in on bad teaching anyway, despite their children not working on their studies at all
c. they are paying customers, lets keep them happy.

So add that all up together what do you get? Graduates that never should possess a degree. Degrees just ain't worth shit anymore. Any Ali, Chong and Ravi can get it easily.

p/s photos: Cerina de Graca (Ka Bik Yee)