The Wave & The Tide, Or Is It A Tidal Wave

After last March, followed by the Obama event, you'd think its a wave or things are just coincidental. Do political trends in one country affect another? If I can only say Yes or No, then I would say Yes. If its a neighbouring country, then it will be a more resounding Yes.

When we had the March 2008 tidal wave, many in Singapore were rattled. Some were in awe, some shocked, many began to question and wonder if something similar could ever occur in Singapore. Even ruling politicians in Singapore must have had many sessions and meetings debating the consequences and repercussions - the need to govern closely to to the pulse and will of the nation. It is when there is a growing divergence that waves and tides eventuate.

Neighbouring countries especially in Southeast Asia tend to look over at each other closely because culturally and racially we are quite similar in many ways. Caveat - we all don't know what the Thais themselves really want??!!! Now we just got wind of the election results for Indonesia. Is it a gentle wave or a tidal wave?

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The party of Indonesia's president won a resounding victory in parliamentary polls, handing him a stronger mandate to push a reformist agenda in the world's third largest democracy.

Unofficial counts from five polling agencies showed Friday that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party would be the largest in the 560-seat lower house after collecting 20% of the popular vote. It ranked fifth in the last election in 2004.

That was a clear sign of widespread public approval for Yudhoyono's performance in his first years, but he will still have to form a coalition to garner enough seats to contest July 8 presidential polls and build a parliamentary majority that can push through his policies.

With preliminary, official results not expected for days, Yudhoyono made no comment about possible coalition partners, but analysts expect he will again join forces with the late dictator Suharto's party, Golkar, which took a beating at the ballot box, and any number of smaller Islamic parties.

Parties or coalitions need a fifth of the legislature or 25% of the popular vote to nominate a candidate for the presidential race.

The parliamentary election put Yudhoyono on track for "a landslide" in the presidential polls, said researcher Sunny Tanuwidjaja at the Jakarta Center for Strategic and International Studies. "This is an indication Yudhoyono is still very strong, very popular."

But while it gave him the political clout needed to seek a more ambitious agenda, it remains to be seen whether he would "dare to actually deliver the breakthroughs... He has always been perceived as a slow and indecisive figure," he said.

Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim nation, emerged from 32 years of dictatorship when Gen. Suharto was swept from power in 1998, leading to reforms that freed the media, vastly improved the country's human rights record, and for the first time allowed citizens to vote for president. But corruption is still endemic throughout government institutions and the courts, undermining its democratic transition. Critics say deeper reforms are still badly needed.

Voting went smoothly at more than half a million polling stations across 17,000 islands, but pre-election violence left five dead in the easternmost province of Papua in an apparent rebel attack. There were also complaints about ballot paper mix-ups and incomplete registration lists that meant some people couldn't vote at all.

Copyright © 2009 Associated Press

p/s photos: Tomiko Van

Singapore & HK

Singapore is likely to be the Asian economy that is worst affected by a United States recession, said economists. This is because it is one of the most open economies and has a large manufacturing sector.

Unusually, the NBER does not define a recession as two straight quarters of shrinking economic output. Instead, it looks for a decline in economic activity, spread across the economy, and lasting more than a few months. The figures it uses include overall economic output, industrial production, payroll employment, personal incomes, and wholesale and retail trade.

CIMB-GK regional economist Song Seng Wun said that among Asian economies, Singapore and Hong Kong would feel the biggest impact from a US slump, as they are 'the most exposed, most trading-oriented, with the least shelter from domestic consumption. Singapore also has a slice of manufacturing, unlike Hong Kong. We will get a double whammy from a slump in manufacturing and services.'

DBS Bank chief economist David Carbon said: 'Singapore and Hong Kong are bearing the brunt of the impact in Asia. Singapore is being hit as it is very small and extremely open.' But he was quick to point out that the impact of a US recession on Asia is less significant than in previous downturns, as 'Asia is now more capable of standing on its own'.

The US is Singapore's third-largest trading partner, with total trade hitting S$88.2 billion last year. Economists identified the technology sector, electronics sector and certain parts of the services sector as those that will be the most severely hit by the US downturn.

OCBC Bank economist Selena Ling said: 'It will be a bumpy ride going ahead for Singapore, especially for manufacturing and export-related industries. Moving forward, the services side will feel the impact of a slowdown, as we are talking about job and wage cuts.'

DBS economist Irvin Seah said manufacturing would be the worst hit, with electronics dragging down sectors such as precision engineering. Sentiment-driven sectors such as financial and real estate will be affected by the continued weakness in investor confidence, as will externally oriented services like tourism and hotels and restaurants.'

Economists anticipate the fourth quarter of this year to be the worst for the US, with some predicting as much as a 5 per cent contraction. Many of them believe the current downturn will be the most severe since the 1981-82 recession. But some feel that the lower base numbers will provide room for an economic rebound next year. The best-case scenario? Recovery in the first half of next year, with the end of recession in the second half.

OCBC's Ms Ling said: 'It will probably be a U- or L-shaped recovery. But we are not heading for a Great Depression kind of scenario due to proactive, more aggressive policy responses from the US government.'

However, some were more pessimistic, predicting that this could become the worst economic crisis since World War II.

Mr Jeffrey Frankel, a Harvard University economist who sits on the NBER's committee, told CNBC television: 'This is going to be probably a deep and long recession. It could be the worst post-war recession.'

WHY THE UNITED STATES IS IMPORTANT TO SINGAPORE

The US is Singapore's third-largest trading partner by country.

It is also Singapore's largest foreign investor by country.

The US economy has a vital bearing on investor sentiment here, and affects the financial and real estate sectors.

KEY U.S. RECESSION FACTS

The National Bureau of Economic Research said the US economy entered a recession in December last year, which would make it the longest contraction since 1982. The last time the US was in a recession was in 2001.

If the recession lasts for another five months, it will become the longest since the Great Depression.

The euro region and Japan both fell into a slump in the second quarter of this year, making it the first simultaneous recession in the three regions in the post-war era.

The US economy shrank 0.5 per cent in the third quarter after expanding 2.8 per cent in the previous three months. Some economists predict that the US economy will contract by as much as 5 per cent in the current fourth quarter.

Other economies officially in recession: Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Ireland, Italy, Germany and Britain.

Comments: If you want to assess how a country is going to be affected by the US led turmoil, one should consider:

a) the level of open-ness of the economy to trade

b) the level of trade with the US and Europe

c) whether the country has substantive domestic economy (I would classify those countries with at least a 60m population to be able to negate global repercussions)

d) the degree of reliance on FDIs

e) Competitive advantage & shortcomings

f) Responsiveness by government

Then make your own conclusions.

p/s photos: Pace Wu Pei Ci

I'm In Love With Olivia

You will fall in love with her. Then hear her sing, and then you will fall even deeper in love. What a face plus a nice voice. She is Singaporean and just 23. She sings in English mainly but her Japanese is very good as well. Signed to a Japanese studio, she moved to Japan for her studies and her singing career and is now with a Japanese pop group Mirai. Now she has a few solo albums.

ASEAN Confidential

I came across this interesting study completed by Dr. Eric Thompson of National University of Singapore and Dr. Chulanee Thianthai of Chulalongkorn University to gauge regional awareness and identity among ASEAN residents. They have some interesting findings, are we like the European Union, how do we regard the ASEAN vision, do we feel collectively empowered or held back by the association. The survey covered 2,000 university students from all the ASEAN countries.

Q. I FEEL THAT I AM A CITIZEN OF ASEAN (Agree % / Disagree %)
Brunei 82.2 / 17.8
Cambodia 92.7 / 7.3
Indonesia 73 / 27
Laos 96 / 4
Malaysia 86.4 / 13.6
Myanmar 59.5 / 40.5
Philippines 69.6 / 30.4
Singapore 49.3 / 50.7
Thailand 67 / 33
Vietnam 91.7 / 8.3
average 76.8 / 23.2
Comments: This is a good start, the vast majority find that belonging to ASEAN is necessary and positive. Its an important association, it helps all countries in ASEAN to be "treated" properly and with more respect when they can move with one voice. The noted divergence is Myanmar naturally as ASEAN admitting Myanmar is akin to recognising the military junta, which has been terrorising the people of Burma. Thailand is surprising low on the YES votes as well, I see a lot of sympathisers with the Burma condition there or they feel they are always getting the raw end of the trade talks. The other surprising statistic is Singapore, they certainly feel they can perform better as a sole nation with a few million people. The Singapore YES figure is even lower than Myanmar, go figure the obstinacy and arrogance. Yea sure, wake up, Singapore government wants in so that they can defuse any intentions to invade or take over Singapore.

Q. MEMBERSHIP IN ASEAN IS BENEFICIAL TO MY COUNTRY
Brunei 85.3 / 14.7
Camboodia 96.3 /3.7
Indonesia 83.5 / 16.5
Laos 99 / 1 Malaysia 90.9 / 9.1
Myanmar 58.3 / 41.7
Philippines 94 / 6
Singapore 92 / 8
Thailand 89.5 / 10.5
Vietnam 96 / 4
average 88.5 / 11.5
Comments: Again its understandable for Myanmar to diverge. But look at the hypocrisy of Singapore. They do not feel they belonged to ASEAN but they think they are MUCH BETTER OFF economically by being in ASEAN. That's so Singaporean. Gee, this is supposed to be a neutral review but now looks like being a Singapore-bashing thing (again). At least we can quote this study when we are asked why we don't like Singapore.

Q. ASEAN COUNTRIES ARE SIMILAR CULTURALLY
Brunei 45.4 / 54.6
Cambodia 84.3 / 15.8
Indonesia 84 / 16
Laos 81 / 19
Malaysia 50.2 / 49.2
Myanmar 50.2 / 49.8
Philippines 78 / 22
Singapore 49.3 / 50.7
Thailand 73.5 / 26.5
Vietnam 78.4 / 21.6
average 67.4 / 32.6
Comments: This is very important I think because the countries that voted half-half shows up in countries where cultural differences are apparent, and in a large aspect accepted as well. The other countries would show a much more cohesive local viewpoint that they are one people as a country and culturally. Very interesting indeed.

Q. ASEAN COUNTRIES ARE SIMILAR ECONOMICALLY
Brunei 29.4 / 70.6
Cambodia 39.7 / 60.3
Indonesia 46.8 / 53.2
Laos 49.5 / 50.5
Malaysia 46.3 / 53.7
Myanmar 40.4 / 59.6
Philippines 34 / 66
Singapore 11.8 / 88.2
Thailand 44.5 / 55.5
Vietnam 54.4 / 45.6
average 39.7 / 60.3
Comments: I think this is revealing for different reasons. The countries that think that their own economy is more "sophisticated" and "value-add", would have a stronger DISAGREE votes, e.g. Singapore.

Q. ASEAN COUNTRIES ARE SIMILAR POLITICALLY
Brunei 23.4 / 76.6
Cambodia 50.7 / 49.3
Indonesia 49.6 / 50.4
Laos 44.2 / 55.8
Malaysia 29 / 71
Myanmar 28 / 72
Philippines 31.4 / 68.6
Singapore 13.3 / 86.7
Thailand 25.5 / 74.5
Vietnam 54 / 46
average 35 / 65
Comments: Western media would always find it convenient to lump th entire region as one politically and that pisses me off no end. Each country has its own varying levels of democracy. It might not be a two party system, some are even dictatorial, there is varying levels of paternalism in politics. You may generalise a bit in saying that corruption is rife (with the exception of Singapore). As a whole, we have a lot of growing up to do politically. Each with its own set of problems and issues. Hence is it any wonder that the first rule for admission into ASEAN is that "we do not question country politics". Naturally in a group of very ugly girlfriends, they will not want to hold a beauty contest.

p/s photo: Taw Natoporn Taemeeruk