Showing posts with label Thailand. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Thailand. Show all posts

The Wave & The Tide, Or Is It A Tidal Wave


After last March, followed by the Obama event, you'd think its a wave or things are just coincidental. Do political trends in one country affect another? If I can only say Yes or No, then I would say Yes. If its a neighbouring country, then it will be a more resounding Yes.

When we had the March 2008 tidal wave, many in Singapore were rattled. Some were in awe, some shocked, many began to question and wonder if something similar could ever occur in Singapore. Even ruling politicians in Singapore must have had many sessions and meetings debating the consequences and repercussions - the need to govern closely to to the pulse and will of the nation. It is when there is a growing divergence that waves and tides eventuate.

Neighbouring countries especially in Southeast Asia tend to look over at each other closely because culturally and racially we are quite similar in many ways. Caveat - we all don't know what the Thais themselves really want??!!! Now we just got wind of the election results for Indonesia. Is it a gentle wave or a tidal wave?

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The party of Indonesia's president won a resounding victory in parliamentary polls, handing him a stronger mandate to push a reformist agenda in the world's third largest democracy.

Unofficial counts from five polling agencies showed Friday that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party would be the largest in the 560-seat lower house after collecting 20% of the popular vote. It ranked fifth in the last election in 2004.

That was a clear sign of widespread public approval for Yudhoyono's performance in his first years, but he will still have to form a coalition to garner enough seats to contest July 8 presidential polls and build a parliamentary majority that can push through his policies.

With preliminary, official results not expected for days, Yudhoyono made no comment about possible coalition partners, but analysts expect he will again join forces with the late dictator Suharto's party, Golkar, which took a beating at the ballot box, and any number of smaller Islamic parties.

Parties or coalitions need a fifth of the legislature or 25% of the popular vote to nominate a candidate for the presidential race.

The parliamentary election put Yudhoyono on track for "a landslide" in the presidential polls, said researcher Sunny Tanuwidjaja at the Jakarta Center for Strategic and International Studies. "This is an indication Yudhoyono is still very strong, very popular."

But while it gave him the political clout needed to seek a more ambitious agenda, it remains to be seen whether he would "dare to actually deliver the breakthroughs... He has always been perceived as a slow and indecisive figure," he said.

Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim nation, emerged from 32 years of dictatorship when Gen. Suharto was swept from power in 1998, leading to reforms that freed the media, vastly improved the country's human rights record, and for the first time allowed citizens to vote for president. But corruption is still endemic throughout government institutions and the courts, undermining its democratic transition. Critics say deeper reforms are still badly needed.

Voting went smoothly at more than half a million polling stations across 17,000 islands, but pre-election violence left five dead in the easternmost province of Papua in an apparent rebel attack. There were also complaints about ballot paper mix-ups and incomplete registration lists that meant some people couldn't vote at all.

Copyright © 2009 Associated Press


p/s photos: Tomiko Van



Bangkok Still Very Dangerous


Anti-government protesters ended an eight-day siege of Bangkok's two airports yesterday but warned of more crippling protests if ruling MPs form a new government. But ruling MPs moved to reconvene parliament next week to elect a new prime minister, likely to be the next flashpoint in the three-year battle between a democratically empowered rural majority and Bangkok's influential middle-class elite.

Bomb squads, cleaners and technical staff have moved into the international airport to make it ready for a partial resumption of flights tomorrow morning, the 81st birthday of Thailand's King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

Sondhi Limthongkul, a prominent anti-Government leader, said he is ready to call thousands of protesters in the People's Alliance for Democracy back to the streets at any moment, regardless of Tuesday's dismissal of the country's prime minister, Somchai Wongsawat, and his party.

"It means no proxy government of the Thaksin regime," said Mr Sondhi, referring to the ousted and exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who has been convicted of corruption. Mr Somchai is Thaksin's brother-in-law. Mr Sondhi, a wealthy media proprietor, repeated demands for the creation of "new politics" that would see a winding back of democracy in the country.

"The PAD will return if another proxy government is formed or anyone tries to amend the constitution or the law to whitewash some politicians or to subdue the monarch's royal authority," he said.

Analysts in Bangkok say the court's decision to dismiss Mr Somchai and his party over electoral fraud gave the anti-government protesters a face-saving way of ending their occupation of the airports after they had come under intense pressure from business groups losing an estimated $130 million a day.

The protesters also wanted to lift the blockades before King Bhumibol's birthday. Many Thais hope King Bhumibol will call for an end to increasing bloodshed in the country in a speech to the nation on the eve of his birthday.

The airport blockades and Mr Somchai's dismissal have further polarised Thai society. One of the greatest risks to stability, they said, is if pro-Government "red shirts" who are angry over Mr Somchai's dismissal lash out violently against the alliance. PAD protesters have been the target of a series of recent bomb blasts.

Government MPs continue to have a huge parliamentary majority - 282 MPs to the opposition's 165 - and have the numbers to form a new government.

The outspoken Health Minister, Chalerm Yoobamrung, has emerged as favourite to be elected prime minister under the banner of a new party, Puea Thai (For Thais).

Whatever new government is formed is likely to be loyal to Thaksin, making it unacceptable to PAD protesters. That is why this Thailand turmoil is unlikely to be over. The situation in Thailand is mind boggling. You can have as many elections as you want but it is likely that the government elected will be the one still linked to Thaksin. That's because the rural voters still see Thaksin as "good" and a "hero". He has wisely won their hearts by catering to the whims of the rural population. Speaking as an independent party, Thaksin is a crook, and of the highest order. Hence city folks do not want anything in government that still has links to him. Its a sticky situation because here is one instance where a democracy should not work as the bad guys will still get in.

What are the chances that the PAD will get elected? Its not very good unfortunately. The rural folks will need to vote differently for PAD to get in. Government MPs continue to have a huge parliamentary majority - 282 MPs to the opposition's 165 - and have the numbers to form a new government.

Even the respected King can do very little, he has to respect the democratic elections. I do believe that the King would like to support PAD in this matter. But that would compromise his position. If the ruling government is re-elected, expect bigger protests which will come to an even greater boiling point. One way which I can suggest to overcome the current turmoil is for the King to speak out and ask the rural folks to vote in PAD - how likely is that??!!!

The Bank of Thailand delivered its biggest ever interest rate cut Wednesday in an aggressive move to buoy economic growth that has been hurt by domestic political turmoil and the global financial crisis. The central bank slashed its policy interest rate by 1% to 2.75% Wednesday. The rate cut was bigger than analysts expected. The rate cut comes a day after Thailand's constitutional court ordered the dissolution of Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat's ruling People Power Party and banned the premier from politics for five years.

The anti-government alliance claims Thailand's rural majority — who gave landslide election victories to the Thaksin camp — is too poorly educated to responsibly choose their representatives and says they are susceptible to vote buying.

It wants the country to abandon the system of one-person, one-vote, and instead have a mixed system in which most representatives are chosen by profession and social group.

Pro-Thaksin politicians have been pushing to amend the constitution to allow Thaksin, who is also banned from politics and convicted on corruption charges, to make a comeback.

p/s photo: Aum Patcharapa Chaichua

ASEAN Confidential



I came across this interesting study completed by Dr. Eric Thompson of National University of Singapore and Dr. Chulanee Thianthai of Chulalongkorn University to gauge regional awareness and identity among ASEAN residents. They have some interesting findings, are we like the European Union, how do we regard the ASEAN vision, do we feel collectively empowered or held back by the association. The survey covered 2,000 university students from all the ASEAN countries.

Q. I FEEL THAT I AM A CITIZEN OF ASEAN (Agree % / Disagree %)

Brunei 82.2 / 17.8

Cambodia 92.7 / 7.3

Indonesia 73 / 27
Laos 96 / 4
Malaysia 86.4 / 13.6

Myanmar 59.5 / 40.5

Philippines 69.6 / 30.4

Singapore 49.3 / 50.7
Thailand 67 / 33

Vietnam 91.7 / 8.3

average 76.8 / 23.2

Comments: This is a good start, the vast majority find that belonging to ASEAN is necessary and positive. Its an important association, it helps all countries in ASEAN to be "treated" properly and with more respect when they can move with one voice. The noted divergence is Myanmar naturally as ASEAN admitting Myanmar is akin to recognising the military junta, which has been terrorising the people of Burma. Thailand is surprising low on the YES votes as well, I see a lot of sympathisers with the Burma condition there or they feel they are always getting the raw end of the trade talks. The other surprising statistic is Singapore, they certainly feel they can perform better as a sole nation with a few million people. The Singapore YES figure is even lower than Myanmar, go figure the obstinacy and arrogance. Yea sure, wake up, Singapore government wants in so that they can defuse any intentions to invade or take over Singapore.

Q. MEMBERSHIP IN ASEAN IS BENEFICIAL TO MY COUNTRY
Brunei 85.3 / 14.7

Camboodia 96.3 /3.7

Indonesia 83.5 / 16.5

Laos 99 / 1
Malaysia 90.9 / 9.1
Myanmar 58.3 / 41.7

Philippines 94 / 6

Singapore 92 / 8

Thailand 89.5 / 10.5

Vietnam 96 / 4

average 88.5 / 11.5

Comments: Again its understandable for Myanmar to diverge. But look at the hypocrisy of Singapore. They do not feel they belonged to ASEAN but they think they are MUCH BETTER OFF economically by being in ASEAN. That's so Singaporean. Gee, this is supposed to be a neutral review but now looks like being a Singapore-bashing thing (again). At least we can quote this study when we are asked why we don't like Singapore.

Q. ASEAN COUNTRIES ARE SIMILAR CULTURALLY
Brunei 45.4 / 54.6

Cambodia 84.3 / 15.8

Indonesia 84 / 16

Laos 81 / 19

Malaysia 50.2 / 49.2

Myanmar 50.2 / 49.8

Philippines 78 / 22

Singapore 49.3 / 50.7

Thailand 73.5 / 26.5

Vietnam 78.4 / 21.6

average 67.4 / 32.6

Comments: This is very important I think because the countries that voted half-half shows up in countries where cultural differences are apparent, and in a large aspect accepted as well. The other countries would show a much more cohesive local viewpoint that they are one people as a country and culturally. Very interesting indeed.

Q. ASEAN COUNTRIES ARE SIMILAR ECONOMICALLY

Brunei 29.4 / 70.6
Cambodia 39.7 / 60.3

Indonesia 46.8 / 53.2

Laos 49.5 / 50.5

Malaysia 46.3 / 53.7

Myanmar 40.4 / 59.6

Philippines 34 / 66

Singapore 11.8 / 88.2

Thailand 44.5 / 55.5

Vietnam 54.4 / 45.6

average 39.7 / 60.3

Comments: I think this is revealing for different reasons. The countries that think that their own economy is more "sophisticated" and "value-add", would have a stronger DISAGREE votes, e.g. Singapore.

Q. ASEAN COUNTRIES ARE SIMILAR POLITICALLY

Brunei 23.4 / 76.6

Cambodia 50.7 / 49.3

Indonesia 49.6 / 50.4
Laos 44.2 / 55.8

Malaysia 29 / 71

Myanmar 28 / 72

Philippines 31.4 / 68.6

Singapore 13.3 / 86.7

Thailand 25.5 / 74.5

Vietnam 54 / 46

average 35 / 65

Comments: Western media would always find it convenient to lump th entire region as one politically and that pisses me off no end. Each country has its own varying levels of democracy. It might not be a two party system, some are even dictatorial, there is varying levels of paternalism in politics. You may generalise a bit in saying that corruption is rife (with the exception of Singapore). As a whole, we have a lot of growing up to do politically. Each with its own set of problems and issues. Hence is it any wonder that the first rule for admission into ASEAN is that "we do not question country politics". Naturally in a group of very ugly girlfriends, they will not want to hold a beauty contest.

p/s photo: Taw Natoporn Taemeeruk