The Long & Short Of It
Magazines like to capture the trends of the day. To go long is to really like something, its worth accumulating, hoarding or holding. To go short is the opposite - don't like it, waiting to implode, basically the risk of downside are magnified compared to the upside. These long and short calls are basically for the near term outlook, less than 6-12 months.
US Dollar - Very Short
Malaysian Ringgit - Long
US Stocks - Long
China A-Shares - Long
China H-Shares - Very Long
Bernanke - Long
Greenspan - Short
Giant Casinos Operating In Macau - Very Short*
Singapore IR Casinos - Long
Malaysia High End Properties (more than RM1.5m) - Short (pls refer to my blog on why Malaysian real estate will under perform)
Malaysia Mid-High End Properties (between RM700k-RM1.49m) - Very Short (its a long term affordability view)
IDR - Long
The Other "Corridors" - Short (for now)
Heroes - Very Long
Who Wants To Be A Superhero - Very, very Short (Monkeywoman???)
Hedge Funds - Short
Soft Commodities - Long
US Housing - Short
UK Housing - Very Short
People With Dogs - Long
People Who Are Dogs - Short
Jose Mourinho Going To Spurs - Specky Long
Jose Mourinho Going To AC Milan - Very Genuine Long
Jose Mourinho Going To MU - Very, very "Sell Your Grandma" Short
All Blacks To Win Rugby World Cup - Very Long
Wallabies To Win The Rugby World Cup - Long
Springboks To Win The Rugby World Cup - Short
England To Win The Rugby World Cup - Very, very Short
Kilkenneys - Short
Guinness Draft - Long
Blended Whiskey - Short
Single Malts - Long
Oil & Gas - Very Long
China Covered Warrants On Bursa - Very Long
Property Stocks In Bursa - Start To Short
Palm Oil Stocks In Bursa - Long Again
Leslie Cheung - Always Long
Britney Spears - Pretty Short
* I am pretty negative on the gaming giants operating in Macau. Sure, you get a mega number of visitors, esp from mainland to Macau. Three things why I am very bearish:
a) The average length of stay per vistor was less than 2 days - does not tally with the number of hotel rooms being built.
b) The cost incurred and the expected returns are geared towards the gaming returns - unlike Vegas or other casinos in the world, the Macau casinos see 90% of their revenue from one game type i.e. baccarat. This skewing of revenue streams from a game which has a very low house favouring odds spells danger. The aggressive competition among the operators results in high-comp and high-commissions to junkets, which further reduces the net take on baccarat games. Watch the smaller casinos fall first, followed by a couple of big ones reporting losses in 2008. You want your revenue base to be well diversified, not concentrated on one game. The competition to lure the high rollers will be enormous, and will cut into earnings no matter how you see it. Sands did very well last year because it was the first of the big boys. Bye bye Mr Ho.
c) The big gaming companies have over-invested into Macau. Over-investment results in low-capacity or low utilisation, which brings down IRRs. Over-investment = over-crowded = heavy competition = discounting and under-cutting = tears.
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