New Building Collapsed In Shanghai

Now just imagine if you own the new apartments in those buildings next to the one that collapsed over the weekend. Look at the uprooted foundations, they did not really pile that deep, did they?!!

A 13-storey residential building under construction in Shanghai collapsed on Saturday, killing one worker and highlighting the dangers of shoddy building in fast-urbanising China.

The building, in the outskirts of the city, collapsed at around 6 a.m. (2200 GMT), with one construction worker killed, the official Xinhua news agency reported. The building was located at the suburban Lotus Riverside complex.

The block of high-rise residential flats was shown toppled onto its side in a muddy construction site. Exposed pilings stood in the remains of the building's foundations.

It appeared to be almost complete with fitted windows and a finished, tiled facade. Other similar-looking blocks in the same property development were still standing nearby.

Shoddy construction and the use of sub-standard materials is a concern in China's construction sector as the country scrambles to build out cities and finish massive infrastructure projects to keep pace with fast economic growth.

Shanghai authorities are holding nine people in an investigation into the collapse of a nearly finished 13-story apartment building, the government said Monday after the latest in a string of accidents that have plagued the country's construction boom.


Collapsing bridges, highways and buildings in China have often been linked to endemic corruption, as officials and contractors skimp on construction materials or issue approvals without proper inspections. Such problems are more common in rural areas and inland provinces than in major cities like Shanghai, where controls usually are more rigorously enforced.


To be fair, the building was under construction and thus unoccupied, but it's still a minor miracle that there was only one fatality. Sounds like there was a problem with some nearby flood prevention walls at the Dianpu River, but there's no hard evidence as to why this huge building simply fell over.


Sigh... why look at China... we have our own mess, don't we!!??

Markets Looked Tired

After having ridden the markets for about 15%, I can say that at present levels the markets everywhere looked tired. I did say that this year the Sell In May mantra may not be good advice. Good is good, it cannot lasts forever. The current run is sustained by additional inflow of funds back into the market place. We already had very decent months in March, April, May and June. A normal market rally or rebound rally normally don't lasts that long.

I would reduce my exposure to stocks from 80% to just 20% till the picture is clearer. I looked at the market leaders board for the past week and am totally unconvinced with the market leaders. If you are not going to go up, its down, baby. Look for me at 1,000 or thereabouts.

Markets cannot keep the momentum up for so long, we still have to remember that fund managers need to go on holiday plus they need to reserve their bullets for the last quarter.



p/s photos: Misaki Ito

Got A Question For Bank Negara

Dear Madam Zeti,


There is a curious trend in bank lending which I am sure you are aware of, but is troubling to me. I am sure you are aware that all property loans (or almost all property loans) given out by Malaysian banks have a 5 year lock in period. During that 5 year period if you want to refinance your loan by the same bank or take it to be refinanced to another bank, you will be whacked with a 5% penalty on outstanding amount.

Say you bought a house in 2006 for RM500,000 with a RM400,000 loan with rate of 6%. Naturally with rates coming down over the last 12 months, you should refinance the balance, but you cannot.

Is this ruling fair to property owners? Is this rule sanctioned and encouraged by Bank Negara as it obviously benefits the banks at the expense of the borrowers. Is this to stop other banks from "stealing" loans from one another? If it is, then banks SHOULD allow for refinancing inhouse with no penalty - why should borrowers not have that choice?

As the country tries to deflect a recession, interest rates come down as a monetary tool by Bank Negara. What good is the tool, what good is the lower rates if a substantial portion of the loans are "locked in", unable to take advantage of the lower rates? This neutralises the lower interest rates policies as property loans make up a huge portion of most households' balance sheet.

Why are local banks having it so good? Why can't the public be beneficiaries of better and more open competition among the banks? A borrower will go to a bank because of the service it provides. Why does that "better service" automatically goes out the door the moment you sign off on the loan? Why can't a person switch to a lower cost option two or three years down the road? If a bank loses a loan to another bank, it means the other bank can compete more effectively - i.e. lower cost of funds.

The local banks are acting like a cartel... they all agree to do this so that all can enjoy supernormal profits, lock in profits, all to the detriment of the consumer. No need to watch The Sopranos, we have the local banks.

I can understand a window of a lock in period for the banks to recoup some marketing cost, but certainly not 5% penalty.

Bank Negara should:
a) reduce the lock in period from 5 years to 2 years
b) reduce the penalty from 5% to 2%

This is one of the many big reasons why Malaysian properties are sluggish.



p/s photos: JJ

Why I Don't Like Sime Darby Now

Sime Darby with the new management, and the merged entity as the biggest plantations company in the world, has stepped into a new era of management. And sad to say, its been a "C-" in the report card.

a) Sime Darby would usually make up the top 5 of any rankings on management. The recent FinanceAsia survey on Best Managed Company, Sime Darby habuk pun tarak... apa macam ni? I mean, for Sime Darby NOT to even make the top 10, something must be very wrong, it cannot be that ALL people are colluding to fuck with you. To be fair, Sime Darby still ranked well in corporate social responsibility and corporate governance sub categories.

Best managed company		Votes
1)	Public Bank	36
2)	CIMB	28
3)	IOI Corp	15
4)	YTL	12
5)	Axiata (TMI)	11
6)	Digi	10
7)	SP Setia	9
8)	Genting	8
9)	Media Prima	7

b) TheLabu Affair & The IJN coup attempt - Analysts and industry executives do not think that Malaysia needs two airports located within 10km of each other. KLIA has some 3,290ha for aeronautical activities, which allows for four satellite buildings to be built around the main terminal. Currently, only one has been built.

The IJN affair was even more unscrupulous, it was so obvious its the land that Sime was eyeing. Sime Darby has lost the plot when it comes to deciding who to go to bed with. It seems that no one is thinking of how Sime Darby will appear to the public and investors - imagine if you are a concert promoter, whether you bring on Amy Grant or go with Amy Winehouse has a lot of differing consequences. It seems that Sime's only concern is that "well, if we get this one, we will make tons of money", "screw what the public thinks", "screw what the fucking masterplan is", "screw what the government is thinking, all is negotiable one la" ... That is the kind of feeling I get, and I am sure many others will be perceiving that way of Sime Darby's new era.

c) Investors will accord a premium if management is consistent, clear, strategically composed and adds value. The new management is simply clumsy (jumping into this and that project with abandon), arrogant (fuck care what people may think, its the "we are so big, who the fuck should we care, even the government must give me face" attitude), unscrupulous (I mean seriously, IJN???... how can you make money WITHOUT patients being charged more than they are NOW???), increasingly heartless (pun intended), callous (look at the grouses by many of the employees of the merged plantation firms), manipulative (re: regurgitate previous grouses by employees), ruthless and predatory Sime Darby.

d) Yes, predatory is the key word, does that suit what Sime Darby is trying to achieve? Just look at the merged plantation units under Sime Darby. The level of discontent among them is still very high. So many capable staff have left the company already. If the staff from the merged entities were treated as equal, if they were respected for their contributions and eased into the overall Sime Darby's culture ... why would they leave, some may leave anyway, but not in the numbers we have seen over the past 12 months. Look at the projects they bidded for, they way they went about it.

Why I don't like Sime Darby has little to do with their fundamentals (well, I wouldn't be buying Sime on fundamentals even now... conglomerates ALWAYS under perform during a recovery stage ... too big, too many fingers in too many pies, uneven recovery, needs huge liqudity to move, etc..). When the soul of a company is tainted, not much good can come out of it, just 'accidents and mishaps' waiting to happen.

Well, there goes my chance to be employed by Sime Darby. If I may pass one word for management and the board to meditate and mull on, its this word: HUMILITY ... think of how the company came about, what made it great, the contributions of the many employees at the many merged units, ...


p/s photos: Zhang Jing Chu

GDP Country Growth Rates For 2009

Below is an interesting piece from Bespoke Research tabulating the expected GDP growth rates for 2009. Only China and India are expected to register positive year on year expansion. The rest are in various stages of contraction. What's interesting is the BRICs are doing very well relatively, with the exception of Russia, mainly due to its own undoing, excessive reliance on resources exports and not enough investments into infrastructure and services.

The other interesting point is that resource rich countries do not have it so bad, in fact they are among the better performers.

Below are the 2009 estimated GDP growth for 21 countries. As shown, only China and India are expected to actually grow in 2009, while the other countries are expected to contract. China's 2009 GDP growth estimate is at 7.66%, while India's is at 4%. The US is closer to the top of the list than the bottom with an estimate of -2.49%. It ranks only behind Canada among other G-7 countries. Japan and Germany are expected to see the biggest contraction in GDP in 2009 at -6.61% and -6.06% respectively. The UK is at -3.74%, Russia is at -2.77%, and France is at -2.75%.

p/s photos: Reon Kadena

150 Years For Madoff

Is a crime a crime, or the severity dependent on the amount that was "fraudulently obtained" by the perpetrator? Court rulings have maintained that the sum of money lost is a primary factor. Another factor has to be how many people were defrauded or affected? If Madoff had bilked the US Treasury for the same amount, somehow I don't think the media would make such a big hoo-hah over the case. Collective mob anger (which is understandable and justified) do sway the severity of the crime. So, if you are going to 'steal money', steal from one party only, or at least try to minimise the number of affected parties.

Sentenced to 150 years in prison on Monday, Bernard L. Madoff, the convicted Ponzi schemer, got one of the nation’s most severe sentences ever handed out in a white-collar crime case.

In recent years, some of the most notorious financial miscreants have received sentences of about 15 to 30 years. Below, a graphical look at of some of the longest prison terms for financial fraud, including sentences for former executives at WorldCom, Enron and the hedge fund Bayou Group.

At the relatively low end of the spectrum is Phillip R. Bennett who was 59 when he was sentenced to 16 years in prison for his role in the financial cover-up that eventually led to the collapse of the commodities brokerage Refco and about $1.5 billion in investor losses. Mr. Bennett, who had been Refco’s chief executive, previously pleaded guilty to 20 crimes, including conspiracy to commit securities fraud.

At the high end is Lance K. Poulsen, the founder of National Century Financial Enterprises, who in March received a 30 year prison sentence — one of the nation’s harshest for a white-collar crime. Mr. Poulsen was convicted of leading a $2.9 billion fraud that brought down National Century and triggered the bankruptcy filings of about 275 health care institutions.

“Mr. Poulsen is an architect of a fraud of such magnitude that it would make sophisticated financial analysts shudder,” the judge said in handing down the sentence.

Source: The New York Times; Google Charts


p/s photos: Yu Yamada

China's Liquidity Traps & Benefits

China has been ramping up lending over the last 7 months. Yes, it was with good intentions. Yes, it was actual lending not just for show. Yes, banks in China were "asked" to do their bit to lend aggressively. While there is a lot of good to have money circulating around, it will also weigh down on those borrowing on the "unqualified" end of the spectrum, people who willing take on more debt than they should. Its a mini time bomb. No, it will not implode yet. What the figures below shows to me is that China's equity markets will have a major run up right through the end of 2009. When you pump in so much liquidity, there are very few places for it to surface. We may see a combustion effect only maybe in the second half of 2010.

China's credit card debt that was at least six months overdue rose 133.1 percent year on year in the first quarter to 4.97 billion yuan (727.67 million U.S. dollars), the People's Bank of China, or the central bank. Debt overdue by six months or more accounted for 3 percent of the total outstanding credit card debt at the end of March, or 0.6percentage point more than in the same period last year, the report said.

It warned of potential risks of the increasing overdue credit card debt as financial institutions expanded their credit card business. As of March 31, Chinese banks had issued more than 150 million credit cards, or 0.11 card per person, up 42.9 percent year on year. But Chinese consumers still have relatively few credit cards, compared with 4.39 per person in the United States and 0.95 in Brazil. Outstanding credit card loans rose 87.6 percent year-on-year to165.86 billion yuan at the end of March.

---

New bank loans in China will exceed 1 trillion yuan (US$146 billion) and may top 1.2 trillion yuan this month as the regulator expressed its concern over irresponsible lending, according to a newspaper report.

This month's figure may be the third-highest this year after March's and January's, the China Securities Journal reported yesterday, citing people it didn't identify. That would also represent a sharp jump from May's 664.5 billion yuan.

The news, coming in the wake of the central bank's remark on Thursday that it will stick to an appropriately loose monetary policy to support economic growth, sent bank shares higher yesterday on expectations of better profit.

Shanghai Pudong Development Bank gained 3.79 percent to 22.98 yuan while the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the country's biggest lender, rose 2.02 percent to 5.55 yuan, easily outperforming the key Shanghai Composite Index.

Earlier this week, the China Banking Regulatory Commission demanded that lenders avoid a sudden jump in loans at the end of each month and each quarter, a move used by domestic banks to meet internal targets.

The regulator told lenders to ensure the money is channeled to the right sectors such as small businesses to help stimulate the economy, and to monitor capital flow into the stock and property markets.

This month's lending surge was mainly fueled by mortgage loans and funding of government projects, the Journal said.

The new bank loans in the first five months of the year have reached 5.84 trillion yuan, more than last year's total and exceeding the government's target of 5 trillion yuan for this year.


p/s photos: Zhou Weitong

The Future Of Movies Is Bleak If This Continues

As displayed above, "rants & raves"... this is a rant. If you look at the highest grossing movies to date in the U.S. this year, Pixar's Up is #1 at $250m. The #2 film of the year is Star Trek, coming in at $246m so far. Plus an extra $123m abroad. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen has grossed $200m in 5 days. Foreign gross so far is $80m.

The rest of the top ten grossing films to date this year:

Monsters vs. Aliens - $195m
The Hangover - $183m
X-Men Origins: Wolverine - $177m
Night at the Museum 2 - $163m
Fast & Furious 4 - $155m
Angels & Demons - $130m
Terminator Salvation - $121m

My rant is looking at the list, are we going to be seeing only computer graphics ladened movies from here on. Movie studios will study the list and will plonk good money on sure things, i.e. more CGIs. CGIs are great, but let's have a better spread. Heck, in the end its the voice over guys and dolls who should be raking in the money. You and I know very well that the bulk of the movies cited will never win Best Picture even if its the most heart warming story ever told, or even if its the funniest. Movies is not about just the story - its about the acting, the collaboration of experts and craftsmen in wardrobe, cinematography, music, lighting, editing, the interaction and chemistry between actors, etc...

Toy Story or Ninotchka, Ice Age or When Harry Met Sally, Speed Racer or the Midnight Cowboy, Transformers or Twelve Angry Men, X-Men or The Exorcist ... more balance please or we will lose the plot on making great movies, we will end up with nerds churning out pleasurable shock-hits-wow-hits every 15 seconds on the screen type of movie, which in the end is like a 1 hour rollercoaster ride rather than a genuine movie. The instant gratification factor, the "can we fucking turn this into a computer game" factor... why is movie making shifting this way? Can we stop it, should we stop it?


p/s photo: Stefanie Sun

Why People Still Listen To Cramer & Kudlow

Yes, its true unfortunately. The article by New Scientist confirms my suspicions.

Humans prefer cockiness to expertise:

Ever wondered why the pundits who failed to predict the current economic crisis are still being paid for their opinions? It's a consequence of the way human psychology works in a free market, according to a study of how people's self-confidence affects the way others respond to their advice.

The research, by Don Moore of Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, shows that we prefer advice from a confident source, even to the point that we are willing to forgive a poor track record. Moore argues that in competitive situations, this can drive those offering advice to increasingly exaggerate how sure they are. And it spells bad news for scientists who try to be honest about gaps in their knowledge.

In Moore's experiment, volunteers were given cash for correctly guessing the weight of people from their photographs. In each of the eight rounds of the study, the guessers bought advice from one of four other volunteers. The guessers could see in advance how confident each of these advisers was (see table), but not which weights they had opted for.

From the start, the more confident advisers found more buyers for their advice, and this caused the advisers to give answers that were more and more precise as the game progressed. This escalation in precision disappeared when guessers simply had to choose whether or not to buy the advice of a single adviser. In the later rounds, guessers tended to avoid advisers who had been wrong previously, but this effect was more than outweighed by the bias towards confidence.

The findings add weight to the idea that if offering expert opinion is your stock-in-trade, it pays to appear confident. Describing his work at an Association for Psychological Science meeting in San Francisco last month, Moore said that following the advice of the most confident person often makes sense, as there is evidence that precision and expertise do tend to go hand in hand. For example, people give a narrower range of answers when asked about subjects with which they are more familiar (Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, vol 107, p179).

There are times, however, when this link breaks down. With complex but politicised subjects such as global warming, for example, scientific experts who stress uncertainties lose out to activists or lobbyists with a more emphatic message.

So if honest advice risks being ignored, what is a responsible scientific adviser to do? "It's an excellent question, and I'm not sure that I have a great answer," says Moore.

p/s photos: Kou Shibasaki

Update On Marketocracy Portfolio

Fund Performance for salvadordali's Mutual Fund

fund rankings
		For the six month period ending March 31, 2009 your fund outperformed 97.8% of the other funds on our site. Your forum and other privileges are based on this ranking

My portfolio was started on 1st August 2008. Marketocracy lets you manage a virtual portfolio of $1M in a simulated trading environment, allowing you to track your performance accurately and compare your fund management skills to other investors and professional fund managers. Yes, they do take into account transaction cost as well. If your track record turns out to be one of the best, you could be hired to help manage a real fund at Marketocracy. It's a great place to learn, and a great place to prove your talent. They also have important rules to ensure that you are running an actual investing portfolio and not just sitting on cash:

• No position can exceed 25% of your total portfolio value.
  
• Half your portfolio must be comprised of positions under 10% each.
  
• Your cash position isn't limited by this guideline, although you must be 65% invested

My fund was smartly called SMF, or Salvador Mutual Fund (no, not the foul language acronyms you are thinking). So far so good, although the first couple of months was iffy. SMF fund performance in orange colour.

The main objective of the fund is to beat the S&P 500. For the past 6 months ended 28 June, the S&P 500 has gained 6.76% (previously 1.33%) while my fund has gained 63.3% (previously 51.1%). There are usually rules which dictate that you must be at least 65% invested at all time, and your aim is to beat the index. If you can consistently beat the index, you should be golden. If you look at the turnover rates, I have increased the trading activity over the past two months as I think the recovery is still volatile and is more suited to be traded.

modern portfolio theory, you basically aim to beat the index, based on the premise that:

over the long run stocks offer superior returns

hence if you consistently beat the index, over the long run, you should have superior returns

recent returns vs. major indexes
		MTD QTD YTD SMF 0.42% 46.16% 53.80% S&P 500 0.14% 15.86% 3.10% DOW -0.73% 10.90% -3.85% Nasdaq 3.60% 20.26% 16.56%

recent returns
		RETURNS Last Week -0.18% Last Month 5.41% Last 3 Months 42.76% Last 6 Months 63.67% S&P500 RETURNS Last Week -0.21% Last Month 3.08% Last 3 Months 13.30% Last 6 Months 6.76% RETURNS VS S&P500 Last Week 0.03% Last Month 2.33% Last 3 Months 29.45% Last 6 Months 56.91%

alpha/beta vs. S&P500
		Alpha 54.37% Beta 1.26 R-Squared 0.84

turnover
		Last Month 36.12% Last 3 Months 188.85% Last 6 Months 292.71%

Symbol Price Shares Value Portion of Fund Gains Current Return BAC $12.75 6,000 $76,500.00 6.90% $36,593.22 42.46% STT $48.33 2,500 $120,825.00 10.90% $41,368.54 40.97% Details ACTG $7.60 16,000 $121,600.00 10.97% $37,791.79 30.62% Details QSII $56.47 1,500 $84,705.00 7.64% $16,267.77 13.56% Details SXE $32.35 3,000 $97,050.00 8.76% $9,089.54 10.33% Details MIDDLE MGM $6.78 14,000 $94,920.00 8.56% $5,124.78 5.71% WFR $17.96 6,000 $107,760.00 9.72% $1,996.56 1.89% F $5.61 30,000 $168,300.00 15.19% -$1,475.01 -0.87% JEC $41.37 1,500 $62,055.00 5.60% -$645.73 -1.03% AIG $1.46 50,000 $73,000.00 6.59% -$1,269.20 -1.71% Details BDD $8.48 11,000 $93,280.00 8.42% -$5,221.13 -5.30% Details

p/s photos: Fukuda Saki

Just Another Star?

I don't really want to post another posting just cause he is no longer with us. I think most people will reflect on how his life for the past 20 years have been inundated by accusations that were never proven. Too many greedy people thinking he was an easy target to extort money from.

I kind of grew up with MJ's music. I still remember how amazed I was when he came out with two of best pop albums ever - Off The Wall and Thriller. Any artiste would be proud and would have been regarded as a superstar with just one of the two albums to their credit.

He was misunderstood, had a terrible childhood, a teenager that never had a chance to grow up properly. He was a victim of circumstances and all that should never taint his super-star-dom.

I hope many will come out to say the truth and clarify the untruths about MJ. I cannot believe he was 50. I have to say that the greatest musical influence and talent for the last 50 years would have the Beatles at the top and MJ as a close second.

MJ's albums shot up the updated Bestsellers albums list almost immediately on the new. Its absolutely appropriate.

Bestsellers

Music

Updated hourly

	1. 2 days in the top 100 Michael Jackson 25th Anniversary of Thriller ~ Michael Jackson $19.98 $12.99
	2. 2 days in the top 100 Off the Wall ~ Michael Jackson $11.98 $7.97
	3. 2 days in the top 100 Bad ~ Michael Jackson $11.98 $7.97
	4. 2 days in the top 100 Michael Jackson: The Ultimate Collection ~ Michael Jackson $59.98 $34.97
	5. 2 days in the top 100 Number Ones ~ Michael Jackson $16.97 $9.97
	6. 2 days in the top 100 Dangerous ~ Michael Jackson $11.98 $7.97
	7. Ranking has gone up in the past 24 hours 2 days in the top 100 The Essential Michael Jackson ~ Michael Jackson $24.98 $14.97
	8. 2 days in the top 100 The Ultimate Collection ~ Jackson 5 $13.98 $10.97
	9. Ranking has gone down in the past 24 hours 2 days in the top 100 Michael Jackson - Vol. 1-Greatest Hits History ~ Michael Jackson $13.98 $8.97
	10. 2 days in the top 100 Invincible ~ Michael Jackson $11.98

"... empty clothes that drape and fall on empty chairs ... never thought you'd leave, until you went ..."

I pray that you will be in a better place where your soul continues to shine and the burdens and worries are finally lifted from your shoulders.

Jackson queries cause Google meltdown

June 27, 2009 - 9:44AM

A deluge of search queries for Michael Jackson led Google News, the news aggregator of web search engine Google, to initially believe it was under attack, the internet giant said.

Google, in a blog post on the company website on Friday, said that "millions and millions" of people around the world begin searching for news about the pop star on Thursday as reports emerged about his hospitalisation and death.

It rated the "hotness" of Jackson-related searches as "volcanic".

"The spike in searches related to Michael Jackson was so big that Google News initially mistook it for an automated attack," Google said.

"As a result, for about 25 minutes yesterday, when some people searched Google News they saw a 'We're sorry' page before finding the articles they were looking for," it said.

The "We're sorry" page tells users their query "looks similar to automated requests from a computer virus or spyware application" and forces them to type in a series of squiggly characters before it will process their request.

Popular micro-blogging service Twitter also suffered a slowdown in performance on Thursday as users exchanged thousands of messages per minute about Jackson's death at the age of 50.

Web portal AOL said its AIM instant messaging service was down for about 40 minutes.

Yahoo! said the news area on its front page received five times its normal traffic and its front page story "Michael Jackson rushed to hospital" was its "highest clicking story" ever with 800,000 clicks within 10 minutes.

Equities: Breakout Or Fakeout?

Equities: Breakout Or Fakeout?

U.S. equities are playing catch-up to the appreciation in many other risky assets, although they still have a long way to go to reach their mid-September 2008 levels (i.e. pre-Lehman). The S&P 500 climbed above its 200-day moving average last week. The psychological impact of slicing through this technical barrier could convert many bears to a more bullish persuasion. At this point in past cycles, sentiment had usually become more optimistic than is currently the case. It is remarkable that after a nearly 50% rise in share prices from the low, the number of bulls in the trading pits remains so low. Consequently, there are good odds that the index will continue to grind higher as economic confidence is slowly restored and investor conviction in a sustained profit recovery climbs. Still, it is important to keep in mind that this cycle is very different because the U.S. is in a balance sheet recession and suffers from questionable asset quality, rather than an income statement problem stemming from higher interest rates. In terms of economic variables, only the ISM new orders index is following a typical post -bear market rally path. Employment conditions are worse (albeit layoff announcements have rolled over and the pace of job shedding has slowed) and house prices are much weaker. This reflects the unique nature of the downturn and overall financial deleveraging. Bottom line: Equities have more upside, although the recovery may be more muted than in past cycles and more narrowly-based.