I’ve been in some weird ones and that’s a fact so I thought I would dedicate a few paragraphs to three that stick in my memory the most. Like the one in the Gulf that had a trout stream (yes a trout stream with trout) running through the lounge and patio. I remember I dropped my glasses case in it by mistake and had to sprint across the patio to grab it before the waterfall carried it down to the next floor. Worst of all the sound of tinkling water kept me awake and wanting to go to the toilet all night.
Then there was the Anouska Hempel owned hotel somewhere near Knightsbridge. That was a weird one. It was a ‘trendy’ boutique hotel that had individually themed rooms and mine apparently was designed with a kind of Bedouin tent look. It was in effect black. Well the walls were throughout…and so I think was the ceiling. This ‘black’ look extended to the bathroom as well.
The floor was made up of old creaking boards and the bed was a four poster shrouded in canvas and netting. I counted the scatter cushions and there was something like 32 of them. Fantastic if you wanted a feast, love-in or satanic rite but not perfect for business travel. Worst of all there was a hole in the ceiling above the bed and I wondered whether porn’s equivalent of Cecil B DeMille was in the room above with a wide angled lens. All he would have got on celluloid that night was me cutting my toe nails. I had strange dreams that night.
The bed was almost as weird as the one I had in the Bermudiana Hotel in Hamilton Bermuda many years ago. You cannot miss the hotel because it is huge and painted pink. I turned up very late at night as my flight in from Miami had been delayed and they did not know who the hell I was. All they knew was that the hotel was full. All except one ‘special’ suite. I had a piece of paper in my hand that said I had a reservation so they reluctantly gave me the keys to the ‘special’ suite.
I was starving so before going to bed I went for dinner. Dining alone? I was asked cryptically. Err yes, I said as he walked off pulling a face. After dinner I went for a drink in the bar. Drinking alone? I was asked. Yes, I said turning red. Building up a bit of courage are you? Ehh? I replied. “You’re the man” the bartender called out as I left.
The mystery was solved in big scarlet letters when I got to the double doors of my penthouse. Bridal Suite they said. So that was why everyone could not understand why I was alone and carrying a briefcase. The room was vast. It was perched at the top of the hotel and the main feature was a spectacular circular bed at least 8 feet in diameter under a mirrored ceiling. The sheets were scarlet satin which gave me mild electric shocks every time I moved. Within 10 minutes of sitting on it every hair on my legs was bolt upright and charged with static electricity.
I decided that if I was going to sleep in this garish, slippery nest I was going to have a nightcap drink first. I went to the drinks cabinet and discovered it was almost as big as the bar downstairs. So me and my dear friends Jack Daniels and Remy Martin had a few before I tottered tipsy and jet-lagged to my raunchy sleeping quarters.
I jumped aboard and sat there in my striped pyjamas looking a totally sad. It was then I noticed some controls above the pillows. I pressed one and to my shock my world, or should I say my bed started to rotate and ripple. I couldn’t stop it. I pressed everything but all I managed was to get it turning the other direction. To hell with it I thought and fell asleep whilst cruising at about two miles an hour around my own axis.
I was awoken by the sound of wedding bells being played loudly. It was the suite door bell. I leapt out of bed forgetting I was on the move and crashed into the side table that was not moving and was, at that moment located at the bottom of the bed. As I was floundering in an undignified pile both doors swung open and in wafted not one but two waiters with a giant trolley.
Hello, can we come in they called. You are in I replied. Ooh they said and how are you and your new ‘wife’? Is she in the bathroom? Is she shy? They asked smiling at each other in a knowing way. Out I said firmly and poked them through the doorway. I then saw what they had left behind.
The trolley was vast and included huge amounts of food including caviar, two bottles of champagne and a massive floral display. Right I thought. It’s a mistake on their part but I am going to eat and drink the lot. Which I did.
When I checked out they asked if I had taken room service breakfast. Yes I said but if you look at my reservation I am entitled to bed and breakfast within the rate. But you ate the $500 honeymoon breakfast they said. I may have eaten it but I didn’t order it I called back as I weaved myself out of the hotel and into a taxi.
Travel Services – Buying is just the beginning.
I have encountered many of what I would call classic buyers in my career selling travel services. By that I mean very professional people who know exactly what they want and how to get it at the best rate. They are well practised in procedures and buying protocol and have a clear plan. Good stuff, but is it enough? I do not think so.
I think there are better deals to be done and improved return if two other abilities are learned and brought into play. They are presentation and selling skills. Buyers should know how to buy but there are often other considerations that come into play when buying a service like travel. For example unless you really are going to issue a mandate that is capable of monitoring and enforcing there is likelihood you could lose 20% volume from the programme. You will also probably be buying from people who are frankly not up to dealing with professional buyers. This brings me back to selling and presenting.
Most travel suppliers are becoming more and more cynical and suspicious about the ability of buyers to deliver volume negotiated in travel deals. They are now starting to hold back a little and only give the best package to those that convince them they can deliver volume where there mouth is. The most mutually successful deals I have seen are where buyers are able to ‘sell’ their ability to deliver in a way that has credibility. I once helped a buyer create their own volume delivery agreement which they gave to a delighted supplier and got a fantastic market leading deal.
The deal itself is the beginning not the end of the project. There are numerous ways people can get round a policy and I have seen them all. I could write a book about it! However many loopholes can be closed , or at least made harder, by the ability of the buyer to get to the right internal audience along with a strong sponsor and present their case. To me this is more important than the deal itself.
I have always tried to tell myself that to be successful I should out-sell the salesman and successfully communicate how clever I (the company) has been. After all if you have used you selling skills to get an exceptional programme you might as well you communicate the benefits to ensure everyone knows and acts upon it.
There is so much talk and activity around apps, social networking et al. perhaps if we used some of these fast developing tools to focus on compliance and rationales then companies would have greater control and diminished leakage. A better ROI than repetitive tendering and programme changes to keep a leaking travel bucket full.
I think there are better deals to be done and improved return if two other abilities are learned and brought into play. They are presentation and selling skills. Buyers should know how to buy but there are often other considerations that come into play when buying a service like travel. For example unless you really are going to issue a mandate that is capable of monitoring and enforcing there is likelihood you could lose 20% volume from the programme. You will also probably be buying from people who are frankly not up to dealing with professional buyers. This brings me back to selling and presenting.
Most travel suppliers are becoming more and more cynical and suspicious about the ability of buyers to deliver volume negotiated in travel deals. They are now starting to hold back a little and only give the best package to those that convince them they can deliver volume where there mouth is. The most mutually successful deals I have seen are where buyers are able to ‘sell’ their ability to deliver in a way that has credibility. I once helped a buyer create their own volume delivery agreement which they gave to a delighted supplier and got a fantastic market leading deal.
The deal itself is the beginning not the end of the project. There are numerous ways people can get round a policy and I have seen them all. I could write a book about it! However many loopholes can be closed , or at least made harder, by the ability of the buyer to get to the right internal audience along with a strong sponsor and present their case. To me this is more important than the deal itself.
I have always tried to tell myself that to be successful I should out-sell the salesman and successfully communicate how clever I (the company) has been. After all if you have used you selling skills to get an exceptional programme you might as well you communicate the benefits to ensure everyone knows and acts upon it.
There is so much talk and activity around apps, social networking et al. perhaps if we used some of these fast developing tools to focus on compliance and rationales then companies would have greater control and diminished leakage. A better ROI than repetitive tendering and programme changes to keep a leaking travel bucket full.
Assessing Risk and Response
How to assess the events unfolding, especially in Libya? The delay in global response will cause more uncertainty and turmoil in the markets. Hence, the recent jump in urgency by global powers on the situation is a very good thing.
What is interesting is the level where VIX is at over the last few days. While it did jump to 24 from a benign 16, it did not scale further. In fact it very quickly dip back to 20, which is not a serious risk aversion thing. This points to the fact that not many are scrambling to hedge their long positions, which also translate to the fact that investors are generally willing to go long or buy more, and not the other way around. The way VIX traded would tell me that we are in for a very short period of down days. The way the VIX traded would tell me that we are in for a speedy resolution in Libya. My thinking is that Gadaffi should be out very soon, I think the delay is him negotiating his exile terms (i.e. not to be persecuted and be left with his millions or billions in peace) ... hah ...
Gold is steady and higher. To me the commodity is way over-owned at levels above 1,400. Smart money should be halving their gold holdings now. Its only logical, we need to ask ourselves, is Libyan crisis affecting the price of oil - the answer is yes. If that is a yes, will the US and/or Europe going to allow their feeble economies to be drastically affected by that? You know the answer to that as well. Hence, be it Obama or Bush, the US will one way or another ensure that the Libyan oil wells keep functioning, or else.
Warren Buffett is going long on America, and investors are likely to take note when markets open on Monday. Buffett's annual letter, released Saturday, is brimming with references to the strength of the American people, economy and spirit. Investors said they were struck by how confident the letter was, particularly in comparison to his annual missives of recent years.
The UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Wednesday approved a statement reached by the UN Security Council members that condemned the use of force against civilians in Libya.
BAN KI-MOON, UN SECRETARY-GENERAL:
"The situation is developing rapidly, toward a very dangerous situation. Therefore， we need to very carefully monitor the situation. I will continue to urge, in the strongest possible terms, first to stop violence, to protect human rights and the civilian population.“ Ban also called on Libyan authorities to address the demands of the Libyan people.
The U.S. President Barack Obama described the violence in Libya as "outrageous" and "unacceptable".
BARACK OBAMA, US PRESIDENT:
"I've also asked my administration to prepare the full range of options that we have to respond to this crisis. This includes those actions we may take and those we will coordinate with our allies and partners or those that we'll carry out through multilateral institutions."
Meanwhile, governments around the world are sending planes and ships to evacuate their citizens from Libya.
Fears for the safety of foreigners were heightened after a Turkish worker was shot dead in a construction site near the capital Tripoli on Wednesday. Turkey, European Union states, the U.S. and China, among other countries, are picking up their citizens stranded in Libya by air and sea.
The spreading violence in Libya has also caused anxiety in markets. The U.S. crude oil price briefly crossed 100 dollars a barrel on Wednesday, hitting the triple digits for the first time since October 2008. Reports say one-fourth of Libya's oil producing capacity has been affected. Oil firms operating in Libya are suspending production and evacuating workers. Investors, fearing that higher energy prices will hit corporate profits, also avoided stocks. The price of gold, a traditional safe haven in times of trouble, also soared.
: Marsha Londoh/CD Album
What is interesting is the level where VIX is at over the last few days. While it did jump to 24 from a benign 16, it did not scale further. In fact it very quickly dip back to 20, which is not a serious risk aversion thing. This points to the fact that not many are scrambling to hedge their long positions, which also translate to the fact that investors are generally willing to go long or buy more, and not the other way around. The way VIX traded would tell me that we are in for a very short period of down days. The way the VIX traded would tell me that we are in for a speedy resolution in Libya. My thinking is that Gadaffi should be out very soon, I think the delay is him negotiating his exile terms (i.e. not to be persecuted and be left with his millions or billions in peace) ... hah ...
Gold is steady and higher. To me the commodity is way over-owned at levels above 1,400. Smart money should be halving their gold holdings now. Its only logical, we need to ask ourselves, is Libyan crisis affecting the price of oil - the answer is yes. If that is a yes, will the US and/or Europe going to allow their feeble economies to be drastically affected by that? You know the answer to that as well. Hence, be it Obama or Bush, the US will one way or another ensure that the Libyan oil wells keep functioning, or else.
Warren Buffett is going long on America, and investors are likely to take note when markets open on Monday. Buffett's annual letter, released Saturday, is brimming with references to the strength of the American people, economy and spirit. Investors said they were struck by how confident the letter was, particularly in comparison to his annual missives of recent years.
"Money will always flow toward opportunity, and there is an abundance of that in America," said Buffett, who has run Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway since 1965 and is now one of the world's richest men.
"The prophets of doom have overlooked the all-important factor that is certain: Human potential is far from exhausted, and the American system for unleashing that potential ... remains alive and effective."
He also forecast a recovery in the housing market "within a year or so" and that "America's best days lie ahead."
Given that Buffett owns the entirety or a large share of the country's largest railroads, insurers, banks, consumer products makers and distributors, his optimism could be seen as an endorsement of the economy in 2011 and beyond.
I have laid out what I consider to be prime factors in assessing risk at the present time, you do your own conclusions.
A Lovely Tribute To Van Gogh
Was cleaning up my old emails and came across this gem sent to me by a good friend. Its a lovely tribute to Van Gogh. Talk about leaving a mark or an enduring legacy. Why are great artists often quirky and misunderstood???
Vincent van Gogh, whose obsessive devotion to his art engulfs, consumes, and finally destroys him. However, evidence now shows that he probably killed himself because he went mad from lead poisioning. Then, artists used to lick their brushes to wet them and the paints were full of lead..... they would become addicted to the sweet taste of the lead and their body would crave it. Vincent literally began to eat paint. To many he was battling mental illness, maybe now we know better. They locked him up in a mental asylum. From his cell, he painted his famous painting Starry Night from what he could see from his cell.
He was a sad man as well, he never found true love in his lifetime. He died at 37 and painted 442 paintings. Incredibly, he never managed to even sell any of his paintings till after he died.
Lust for Life (1956) is a biographical film about the life of the Dutch painter, based on the 1934 novel by Irvings Stone. It was directed by Vincente Minnelli and stars Kirk Douglas as Van Gogh. Anthony Quinn won an Oscar for his performance as Van Gogh's fast friend and rival Paul Gauguin.
Now for a more sobering documentary on Van Gogh.
Vincent van Gogh, whose obsessive devotion to his art engulfs, consumes, and finally destroys him. However, evidence now shows that he probably killed himself because he went mad from lead poisioning. Then, artists used to lick their brushes to wet them and the paints were full of lead..... they would become addicted to the sweet taste of the lead and their body would crave it. Vincent literally began to eat paint. To many he was battling mental illness, maybe now we know better. They locked him up in a mental asylum. From his cell, he painted his famous painting Starry Night from what he could see from his cell.
He was a sad man as well, he never found true love in his lifetime. He died at 37 and painted 442 paintings. Incredibly, he never managed to even sell any of his paintings till after he died.
Lust for Life (1956) is a biographical film about the life of the Dutch painter, based on the 1934 novel by Irvings Stone. It was directed by Vincente Minnelli and stars Kirk Douglas as Van Gogh. Anthony Quinn won an Oscar for his performance as Van Gogh's fast friend and rival Paul Gauguin.
Now for a more sobering documentary on Van Gogh.
A Torrid Time, And Something New To Stomach
Yesterday's market in Malaysian stocks was something to behold. Can you feel it, I certainly can, it feels like panic selling, it feels like sell first ask questions later, it feels like "I give up" kinda selling. Call it what you like, we needed to see that, as brutal as that may sound. I see that as a peak selling. You may ask if the selling can still continue after a so called "peak selling".
Well, looking at the underlying causes, this wave of peak selling seems pretty solid. Despite how it may look, there were sufficient nibblers on the way down to assure me that there are many who are willing to buy on grave dips like yesterday. Its peak selling and it gets nonsensical, just consider IJM's decent results and whack... it goes down as if the entire layer of top management were killed in a nasty accident.
To me, the selling is predicated on a sustained lack of thrust to the upside, and investors seem to have lost hope on recovering their losses, hence the rush to exit. But seriously folks, all we are talking about is a temporary jump in oil prices. Look at the logic, a few days ago when the market was down, it was due to inflationary fears, that the emerging markets may have been too head strong. Now with sharply higher oil prices, shouldn't that cool economic activity down somewhat??? The recovery in global markets is not stable still, so higher oil prices would bring things back a bit. Even if oil stays at $100-105 for the rest of the year, the S&P would just shave $2 off their total earnings which would still put 1300 as fair to slightly undrevalued. Hence I took the peak selling yesterday with a bit of glee, even though I have also suffered losses over the past few weeks, I think I lost 25% of what I made over the last 6 months, but I am optimistic of a quick turnaround. We needed that peak selling. So what did I do, went to have dinner at one of my favourite Japanese places, as I have made reservations 2 days back for the chef to prepare something which was not on their menu. I had this last week and it was sublime. I was thinking "eewww" at first but when you eat it, its heavenly, even better than the best fish sashimi, save for the best quality toro or hamachi.
I shan't reveal the restaurant's name as it may put the chef at harm's way if people keep pestering him to put this on the menu. Its chicken sashimi. Unbelievably good, I tell you. Next time you ask your Japanese chef if he/she can do it. Rest assured, the dish was done with care and proper procedures. Don't try this at home, it will kill you.
Marking Time
Well, I am sure many readers would be a bit disappointed that I haven't been writing about the markets for sometime. I mean, what is there to write home about. When things happen that overwhelms the sentiment of the markets, and its beyond your control or predictive powers, either you cut your holdings or wait. I think both are OK strategies.
No point asking you to buy more now, as if we always have stacks of available credit lines to do that. The "revolution has gone a bit viral" as other nations think that they can emulate what happened in Egypt in their own countries. Not many will succeed but there will be an extended period of turmoil and uncertainty.
But there is some light from these developments, I think all governments that have been treating their citizens with disdain, contempt, lack of respect for their rights ... should now be more circumspect. I would like to see democracy succeed even more but the reality is its a process. The wheels are turning and you can only pull a wool over the people's eyes some of the time.
Is there anything inherently wrong with the markets? I don't think so. The selling by foreign funds may have been triggered back in January as some of the more cautious ones may have gotten wind of the growing unrest in Egypt, good on them. Now we are stuck in a bad movie which we can walk out (cut losses) or sit it out and complain and moan (like most are doing). The truth is, its a short movie, they will be showing Avatar after this.
No point asking you to buy more now, as if we always have stacks of available credit lines to do that. The "revolution has gone a bit viral" as other nations think that they can emulate what happened in Egypt in their own countries. Not many will succeed but there will be an extended period of turmoil and uncertainty.
But there is some light from these developments, I think all governments that have been treating their citizens with disdain, contempt, lack of respect for their rights ... should now be more circumspect. I would like to see democracy succeed even more but the reality is its a process. The wheels are turning and you can only pull a wool over the people's eyes some of the time.
Is there anything inherently wrong with the markets? I don't think so. The selling by foreign funds may have been triggered back in January as some of the more cautious ones may have gotten wind of the growing unrest in Egypt, good on them. Now we are stuck in a bad movie which we can walk out (cut losses) or sit it out and complain and moan (like most are doing). The truth is, its a short movie, they will be showing Avatar after this.
Come Hear Roger Wang Live, Its Free!!!
Its tomorrow night at Loud + Clear, a snazzy new CD shop that is making waves. Even for their opening, they managed to get some live artistes to perform at their place. Two nights ago, it was Zyan and Winnie Ho of 2V1G. Tomorrow it will be Roger Wang, arguably Malaysia's finest guitarist, next to Paul Ponnudurai. See you there.
Roger Wang, the Sabahan finger-style guitarist, celebrated his 10th year in the music industry in 2010. Already a famous musician in his own right, his recent achievements helped to catapult him to greater heights. Thanks to Jacky Cheung, the Cantopop "Heavenly King" who took his composition "Love Scale" and used it in his Canto-Jazz album "Private Corner". The song gave Roger Wang tremendous international exposures and helped him to win the recent PWH "Best Original Composition - International Category" award, a Bi-annual music award ceremony organized by the Malaysian Chinese press members. His other achievement is his collaboration with local Audiophile producer, Leslie Loh, in the highly-acclaimed Chinese acoustic album 2V1G (2 Voices, 1 Guitar), which has sold over 20,000 copies since its launch in 2008. 2V1G's debut album was recently listed in Hong Kong's Audiophile "CD Bible 2010" as one of the top 500 best recordings of all time.
With such accolades, it is high time for Roger Wang to release his first compilation in 10 years, aptly named "Milestones".
'Milestones’ is a double disc compilation album that celebrates Roger Wang’s first ten years as a recording artiste. This collection highlights his musical journey with hand picked tracks from 6 albums released over the decade, which includes tracks from Double Take’s “1 Voice, 6 Strings, 12 Moods” and “1 Voice, 6 Strings, 12 Days of Christmas”, Wang’s solo album “Journey Home”, his collaboration with Farid Ali on “No Strings Attached”, 2V1G’s debut album, “Love’s Tapestry” with Gina Panizales as well as 3 unreleased bonus tracks. This album has been specially remastered to audiophile standard by Keith Yip of Rock In Music, Hong Kong.
To celebrate this joyous occasion, Roger Wang is going to have a album-launching-cum-mini showcase, to be held in Loud+Clear record shop on 25th Feb 2011 (Friday), from 8:00pm to 9:00pm.
Admission is free! Please book a seat with Caffee Wong at 012-3698160!
Roger Wang, the Sabahan finger-style guitarist, celebrated his 10th year in the music industry in 2010. Already a famous musician in his own right, his recent achievements helped to catapult him to greater heights. Thanks to Jacky Cheung, the Cantopop "Heavenly King" who took his composition "Love Scale" and used it in his Canto-Jazz album "Private Corner". The song gave Roger Wang tremendous international exposures and helped him to win the recent PWH "Best Original Composition - International Category" award, a Bi-annual music award ceremony organized by the Malaysian Chinese press members. His other achievement is his collaboration with local Audiophile producer, Leslie Loh, in the highly-acclaimed Chinese acoustic album 2V1G (2 Voices, 1 Guitar), which has sold over 20,000 copies since its launch in 2008. 2V1G's debut album was recently listed in Hong Kong's Audiophile "CD Bible 2010" as one of the top 500 best recordings of all time.
With such accolades, it is high time for Roger Wang to release his first compilation in 10 years, aptly named "Milestones".
'Milestones’ is a double disc compilation album that celebrates Roger Wang’s first ten years as a recording artiste. This collection highlights his musical journey with hand picked tracks from 6 albums released over the decade, which includes tracks from Double Take’s “1 Voice, 6 Strings, 12 Moods” and “1 Voice, 6 Strings, 12 Days of Christmas”, Wang’s solo album “Journey Home”, his collaboration with Farid Ali on “No Strings Attached”, 2V1G’s debut album, “Love’s Tapestry” with Gina Panizales as well as 3 unreleased bonus tracks. This album has been specially remastered to audiophile standard by Keith Yip of Rock In Music, Hong Kong.
To celebrate this joyous occasion, Roger Wang is going to have a album-launching-cum-mini showcase, to be held in Loud+Clear record shop on 25th Feb 2011 (Friday), from 8:00pm to 9:00pm.
Admission is free! Please book a seat with Caffee Wong at 012-3698160!
The Final Bend, The Solianos' Pusaka
Finally, the recordings have been completed. We now get a foretaste of theeir work in the player embedded. The final version after they have been mixed in the US will sound even better - its now being mixed by Doug Sax and the pressings will be commercially available sometime in March.
Its a wonderful collaboration effort, Malaysian Filipinos having been in this country for a few generations making an album with a Malaysian Chinese producer whose family have also been here for a few generations, singing Malay classics. The inimitable Mahadzir Lokman, a family friend of The Solianos, lends a powerful touch to narrate the intros to a few songs.
This will be in a series of articles on The Solianos Project. Why them? Although I begged Leslie to have a listen to The Solianos, although it seems like I "discovered" them as a recording potential, the truth is not so exceptional on my side. How do you discover a group that has been around for twenty thirty years?
Listening to the live, doing these 3 songs convinced me that there is something "big" ... Tudung Periuk, Tanah Pusaka and Gadis Idaman Ku. The Solianos have been plying their trade at various venues and even corporate events, and while most of their repertoire were in English jazz standards, I was convinced they had to do a Malay album which will totally encapsulate their brilliance, musicality, musicianship and melodious harmonies. It had to be a Malay album because it reflects their heritage perfectly (Alfonso Soliano and Tony Soliano).
The final song list is equally distributed with numbers composed by Alfonso Soliano and emblematic Malay songs through the years (with the Solianos treatment, they were given a fresh breath of vibrancy again - you didn't know that some Malay songs could actually sound so good).
In many ways, The Solianos represent the music culture for the past 60 years and the Pusaka album is more "1Malaysia" than anything I can imagine. If you are between 35-75 you will really feel that you lived through these songs, in your own country, cause nowhere else on earth will you get an album like this or get to appreciate one like this.
Both Tony and Alfonso were greats in their own rights. Alfonso was behind many artistes in the 70s, in fact he was the music arranger / director for Sharifah Aini's Pasir Roboh, Damak Ku Sayang, Serampang Laut, Dodoi Si Dodoi, etc... and thats just one artiste. I like Kartina Dahari a lot, and she also sang one of Alfonso's composition, Tunas Kasih. Tunku Abdul Rahman sought help from Radio Malaysia – Alfonso Soliano, Lanthall, Croft, Bert Read, Dol Ramli and Datuk Ahmad Merican to create the national anthem, Negaraku from a love song, Terang Bulan. Alfonso was always top of the list even then.
Alfonso's better known compositions include: Gadis Idaman Ku and Airmata Berderai. Hence the album which they are doing has almost half of them songs that linked the Soliano name to this group of talented musicians.
This great article was written by errol de cruz for NST and was published on merdeka day august 31, 2007,
IF there's one family that stands above all others in Malaysian music-making, it must be the Soliano clan.
There's an often-used joke which says that if you don't want to become a millionaire, all you need do is become a jazz musician. It's probably what used to happen in the early 1900s what with so many talented jazz and blues musicians succumbing to "occupational hazards".
In today's musical climate, however, jazz musicians have come a long way and several have made a big name for themselves, the Malaysian list includes Michael Veerapen, Lewis Pragasam, Andy Peterson, David Ah Wah, Julian Chan, Vincent Ong, Josie Thomas, David Gomes and many others.
Jazz itself has come a long way, finding its way into pop, rock and ethnic fusion; it's not surprising to find pop artistes who have matured, so to speak, turning back to their roots and hitting jazz joints with sets that include songs by Cole Porter, Frank Sinatra, Barbra Streisand, Ray Charles, Duke Ellington, Nat King Cole, Ella Fitzgerald, Nina Simone and Antonio Carlos Jobim.
Last week, for example, at popular jazz joint No Black Tie, patrons were pleasantly surprised to find evergreen artiste Khatijah Ibrahim at the mike, belting out her own originals and also jazz standards like Don't Rain On My Parade, Luck Be My Lady Tonight and Fever.
Accompanying her was an ensemble starring a renowned music family - the Solianos, arguably the only family in Malaysian showbiz who can claim a heritage of jazz that dates back well into the nation's history, well past the inaugural Merdeka celebrations, thanks to their forefathers, the legendary Alfonso and Tony Soliano.
The Soliano name hails back to the days of the British occupation, when Rufino Soliano and Dominado Tirona were brought in from the Philippines to play in the Constabulary Band.
Later, Alfonso and his nephew Tony came into the picture. Alfonso was the serious one, leading and writing for the orchestras of the time, while Tony was happy being the live wire, leading local musicians in one jazz ensemble or another on both sides of the Causeway, and in the heady Bangkok scene, too.
"Those were the days," many say, "when we had talented artistes like Ahmad Wan Yet, Zain Azman and Julie Sudiro entertaining us."
Alfonso and Tony died, months apart, in 1990, and it has been up to their children and families to keep things going.
Today's Soliano clan remembers the days of yore well, especially Valentino "Tinoy" Soliano who was the only one who performed with his father Alfonso. "I was the lucky one and yes, those were the days," he said.
"If you went to any of our homes after he passed away, there'd be a portrait of him above the piano and as we practised, we'd get that echo that said: "No bluffing, ah."
"Dad's talent was his wealth," Tinoy said. "He'd always bring himself down to the playing level of other musicians and make them sound good."
The Soliano Brothers picked up the flag from Alfonso and performed all over the country for more than 15 years, until individual talent and creativity nudged them into forming their own groups.
Now, instead of just one family ensemble plying the trade, there are at least six outfits pushing the Soliano envelope, from Langkawi to Singapore.
* Tinoy's sister, Isabella, leads one band at the Datai in Langkawi, with Conrado playing trumpet.
* Brother Rizal and niece Rachel have two bands, now performing at No Black Tie.
* Sister Irene sings with the Soliano Brothers whenever she can.
* Cousin Daniel Guerzo leads his Nine Lives in Langkawi.
* Tony Soliano Jr has a band in Johor Baru.
* Cousin Louis Tan Soliano plays drums at Jazz At Southbridge in Singapore.
* Older brother Remy had an accident recently and is currently bed-ridden.
* Tinoy and Tristano are session musicians. "We're the family mercenaries," Tano laughed.
The entire family gets together at Christmas and last year, they more or less took over Langkawi island for two whole weeks. And when they do get together, it's Salvador Guerzo who leads them.
Ado, pianist Rachel's dad, is the elder that the Solianos look up to nowadays. Like Alfonso in his time, Ado writes and arranges for the RTM Orchestra and also plays as often as he can with any of the Soliano outfits. Another "mercenary", yes, but this saxophonist is rather devoted to his daughter's band.
"Times have changed," Rachel chipped in. "I used to follow him; now it's the other way around."
It's a tough job, leading the entire clan when they get together, but Ado wears the mantle well, and his big hope is that he will one day be instrumental in making some Soliano dreams come true.
Rachel has plans to organise the Alfonso Soliano Jazz Festival and is hoping to acquire enough sponsorship over the next two years, and Ado wants to establish what they would all like to see - the Soliano School of Music.
"These are our dreams," Ado said, "and I know we can do it if we put our heads and talent together."
In this case, however, Rachel has the level-headed voice. "What we really need is someone with the business acumen to run it."
Considering the reputation the Soliano clan has earned over half a century and more, the realisation of such dreams would only be fitting.
Or as Rizal put it: "Dad didn't leave us any wealth because making music was more important than making money. But he did leave us with a big name, and it's up to us to do something with it."
Readers of this blog will be aware of my strong support for Leslie from pop pop music label. His stable of artists have churned out excellent audiophile recordings by JZ8, 2V1G, Roger Wang and Gina Panizales. I have been a fan of The Solianos through the years, but mainly listening to their interpretations of jazz standards and the occasional Malay songs.
Don't get me wrong, I love Gadis Idaman Ku, which was composed brilliantly by Alfonso Soliano. During a night session at No Black Tie, I heard them play Tudung Periuk, followed by Gadis Idaman Ku, and a few songs later Tanah Pusaka. It clicked in me that this is a great concept of an album. For my life, I never could fathom why The Solianos never got an album out.
I dragged Leslie to their next gig and he was sold. Pure talented slogging Malaysian musicians with such a storied family, which has contributed immensely to the very fabric and development of modern Malaysian music culture and legacy. I said this album must be an all Malay songs album. There is certainly room for a great jazzy Malay album that reflects their talent and heritage.
Hence their song list below has a few songs composed by Alfonso Soliano, and the rest given the special Solianos treatment. The harmonies and virtuosity of The Solianos shine through the grand guidance of Ador as well.
Its a wonderful collaboration effort, Malaysian Filipinos having been in this country for a few generations making an album with a Malaysian Chinese producer whose family have also been here for a few generations, singing Malay classics. The inimitable Mahadzir Lokman, a family friend of The Solianos, lends a powerful touch to narrate the intros to a few songs.
The Solianos Project - Why!!!???
Listening to the live, doing these 3 songs convinced me that there is something "big" ... Tudung Periuk, Tanah Pusaka and Gadis Idaman Ku. The Solianos have been plying their trade at various venues and even corporate events, and while most of their repertoire were in English jazz standards, I was convinced they had to do a Malay album which will totally encapsulate their brilliance, musicality, musicianship and melodious harmonies. It had to be a Malay album because it reflects their heritage perfectly (Alfonso Soliano and Tony Soliano).
The final song list is equally distributed with numbers composed by Alfonso Soliano and emblematic Malay songs through the years (with the Solianos treatment, they were given a fresh breath of vibrancy again - you didn't know that some Malay songs could actually sound so good).
In many ways, The Solianos represent the music culture for the past 60 years and the Pusaka album is more "1Malaysia" than anything I can imagine. If you are between 35-75 you will really feel that you lived through these songs, in your own country, cause nowhere else on earth will you get an album like this or get to appreciate one like this.
Both Tony and Alfonso were greats in their own rights. Alfonso was behind many artistes in the 70s, in fact he was the music arranger / director for Sharifah Aini's Pasir Roboh, Damak Ku Sayang, Serampang Laut, Dodoi Si Dodoi, etc... and thats just one artiste. I like Kartina Dahari a lot, and she also sang one of Alfonso's composition, Tunas Kasih. Tunku Abdul Rahman sought help from Radio Malaysia – Alfonso Soliano, Lanthall, Croft, Bert Read, Dol Ramli and Datuk Ahmad Merican to create the national anthem, Negaraku from a love song, Terang Bulan. Alfonso was always top of the list even then.
Alfonso's better known compositions include: Gadis Idaman Ku and Airmata Berderai. Hence the album which they are doing has almost half of them songs that linked the Soliano name to this group of talented musicians.
This great article was written by errol de cruz for NST and was published on merdeka day august 31, 2007,
IF there's one family that stands above all others in Malaysian music-making, it must be the Soliano clan.
There's an often-used joke which says that if you don't want to become a millionaire, all you need do is become a jazz musician. It's probably what used to happen in the early 1900s what with so many talented jazz and blues musicians succumbing to "occupational hazards".
In today's musical climate, however, jazz musicians have come a long way and several have made a big name for themselves, the Malaysian list includes Michael Veerapen, Lewis Pragasam, Andy Peterson, David Ah Wah, Julian Chan, Vincent Ong, Josie Thomas, David Gomes and many others.
Jazz itself has come a long way, finding its way into pop, rock and ethnic fusion; it's not surprising to find pop artistes who have matured, so to speak, turning back to their roots and hitting jazz joints with sets that include songs by Cole Porter, Frank Sinatra, Barbra Streisand, Ray Charles, Duke Ellington, Nat King Cole, Ella Fitzgerald, Nina Simone and Antonio Carlos Jobim.
Last week, for example, at popular jazz joint No Black Tie, patrons were pleasantly surprised to find evergreen artiste Khatijah Ibrahim at the mike, belting out her own originals and also jazz standards like Don't Rain On My Parade, Luck Be My Lady Tonight and Fever.
Accompanying her was an ensemble starring a renowned music family - the Solianos, arguably the only family in Malaysian showbiz who can claim a heritage of jazz that dates back well into the nation's history, well past the inaugural Merdeka celebrations, thanks to their forefathers, the legendary Alfonso and Tony Soliano.
The Soliano name hails back to the days of the British occupation, when Rufino Soliano and Dominado Tirona were brought in from the Philippines to play in the Constabulary Band.
Later, Alfonso and his nephew Tony came into the picture. Alfonso was the serious one, leading and writing for the orchestras of the time, while Tony was happy being the live wire, leading local musicians in one jazz ensemble or another on both sides of the Causeway, and in the heady Bangkok scene, too.
"Those were the days," many say, "when we had talented artistes like Ahmad Wan Yet, Zain Azman and Julie Sudiro entertaining us."
Alfonso and Tony died, months apart, in 1990, and it has been up to their children and families to keep things going.
Today's Soliano clan remembers the days of yore well, especially Valentino "Tinoy" Soliano who was the only one who performed with his father Alfonso. "I was the lucky one and yes, those were the days," he said.
"If you went to any of our homes after he passed away, there'd be a portrait of him above the piano and as we practised, we'd get that echo that said: "No bluffing, ah."
"Dad's talent was his wealth," Tinoy said. "He'd always bring himself down to the playing level of other musicians and make them sound good."
The Soliano Brothers picked up the flag from Alfonso and performed all over the country for more than 15 years, until individual talent and creativity nudged them into forming their own groups.
Now, instead of just one family ensemble plying the trade, there are at least six outfits pushing the Soliano envelope, from Langkawi to Singapore.
* Tinoy's sister, Isabella, leads one band at the Datai in Langkawi, with Conrado playing trumpet.
* Brother Rizal and niece Rachel have two bands, now performing at No Black Tie.
* Sister Irene sings with the Soliano Brothers whenever she can.
* Cousin Daniel Guerzo leads his Nine Lives in Langkawi.
* Tony Soliano Jr has a band in Johor Baru.
* Cousin Louis Tan Soliano plays drums at Jazz At Southbridge in Singapore.
* Older brother Remy had an accident recently and is currently bed-ridden.
* Tinoy and Tristano are session musicians. "We're the family mercenaries," Tano laughed.
The entire family gets together at Christmas and last year, they more or less took over Langkawi island for two whole weeks. And when they do get together, it's Salvador Guerzo who leads them.
Ado, pianist Rachel's dad, is the elder that the Solianos look up to nowadays. Like Alfonso in his time, Ado writes and arranges for the RTM Orchestra and also plays as often as he can with any of the Soliano outfits. Another "mercenary", yes, but this saxophonist is rather devoted to his daughter's band.
"Times have changed," Rachel chipped in. "I used to follow him; now it's the other way around."
It's a tough job, leading the entire clan when they get together, but Ado wears the mantle well, and his big hope is that he will one day be instrumental in making some Soliano dreams come true.
Rachel has plans to organise the Alfonso Soliano Jazz Festival and is hoping to acquire enough sponsorship over the next two years, and Ado wants to establish what they would all like to see - the Soliano School of Music.
"These are our dreams," Ado said, "and I know we can do it if we put our heads and talent together."
In this case, however, Rachel has the level-headed voice. "What we really need is someone with the business acumen to run it."
Considering the reputation the Soliano clan has earned over half a century and more, the realisation of such dreams would only be fitting.
Or as Rizal put it: "Dad didn't leave us any wealth because making music was more important than making money. But he did leave us with a big name, and it's up to us to do something with it."
Pusaka by The Solianos
Don't get me wrong, I love Gadis Idaman Ku, which was composed brilliantly by Alfonso Soliano. During a night session at No Black Tie, I heard them play Tudung Periuk, followed by Gadis Idaman Ku, and a few songs later Tanah Pusaka. It clicked in me that this is a great concept of an album. For my life, I never could fathom why The Solianos never got an album out.
I dragged Leslie to their next gig and he was sold. Pure talented slogging Malaysian musicians with such a storied family, which has contributed immensely to the very fabric and development of modern Malaysian music culture and legacy. I said this album must be an all Malay songs album. There is certainly room for a great jazzy Malay album that reflects their talent and heritage.
Hence their song list below has a few songs composed by Alfonso Soliano, and the rest given the special Solianos treatment. The harmonies and virtuosity of The Solianos shine through the grand guidance of Ador as well.
The Best In Us, Teohlogy and Junior Masterchef
Finally laid my hands on Patrick's book. Somehow things seem more official in a book than just an article in the papers, or a blog for that matters. Maybe one day some articles in my blog can be in a book as well, lol, and if that happens, I will call it "How To Lose Your Money Wisely".
Patrick and I go a long way back, though he would probably have zero recollection. I was the Vice President of my Interact Club then (which was a big deal for me as I was in Form 5 only and usually only Lower/Upper Sixers get the Vice President and President positions) and the Interact Club was "the" club to be in if you are from Ipoh. We had the best fund raisers and charity projects. One of our yearly highlights was Beatnite which was a big event (ala American Idol) where only students from Ipoh were encouraged to compete. It was a big charity event as well. We have sellouts for heats and the finals was at Town Hall in Ipoh which would sellout close to 2,000 seats. Every year we managed to raise between RM10,000 to RM20,000 which was a really big sum back then.
That year I was organising and we managed to get "for free" Alleycats (gawd, they were so big even then when they did immaculate versions of all Bee Gees disco hits), the then popular Jennifer Yen and Patrick Teoh as guest judge. I remembered that that was before the time when stand up comedy was the norm, but I insisted that he speak for 5-10 minutes, being supremely confident that he will be well received with his #1 radio show, and being an Ipoh boy and old Michaelian to boot. Hence to me, Patrick really had his first stand up stint back then.
I met him and his family members at the door, I remember chatting with him for a long while as sometimes the performances can be a bit dreary and he dragged me out for a smoke (not me, just him smoking as I was still in my uniform then). He came on and did 15 minutes, poking fun on everything, the school and life in Ipoh, his childhood and everything. I think it was a blast for him and his family, it sure was for the rest of us. He had to watch a bit what he was saying as Brother Ultan Paul was also in the audience, but it was a real gem of a time.
So that's my connection to Patrick. I like him a lot because he is who he is, says what he wants and is fair. His liberal use of swear words is absolutely fine and appropriate as I also believe appropriate swearing or the use of harsh language is for clarity and emphasis - as is in my blog.
I like that he still gets angry. Anger is not a sin, being grey is. You have to be angry at injustices, stupidity, ignorance, shallowness .... if you are like a monk who is calm and collected and consider all these things as trivialities of life, good for you. While the New Testament has been focused on love and redemption, anger is the underlying theme as well. Anger at sin, anger at unnecessary violence, anger at those who disregard the sanctity of human rights and the lack of generosity of the human spirit.
The book's title is brilliant and apt. You all should go and get it.
Below is the review by Malaysian Insider:
------------------------------
The second part of my posting is on the brilliant TV reality show Junior Masterchef Australia. The Masterchef series was such a big hit in OZ land, it was much better produced than the ones you see on Astro from the US, UK and Canada for sure. It had spunk (please search OZ dictionary for the meaning).
Now Astro had just started to show the Junior Masterchef series, its incredible. 8-12 year olds going through the heats, elimination rounds and then the finale. It was gripping television. When I saw the title of the program, I though "oh no, they are going to exploit the kids, they are going to edit their words to make for gripping drama and tensed relations between the contestants, there are going to be the Simon Cowells to spice up things" ... but no, the entire thing was done so respectful to the kids. The kids were amazing, we are not talking about making pancakes or simple pasta dishes, they were cooking up dishes that can easily make the top restaurants in any country - simply unbelievable at their age.
What was more wonderful was how the judges and guest chefs treated the kids with respect, how they handle the elimiations without any hint of callousness, never to belittle or demean a kid ... it was such a wonderful sight to see supportive parents not mattering how well or badly they did, ... not the overbearing ones and certainly not those who worked (and living vicariously through) their kids to death to win the kiddie pageants types.
While I am amazed with their talents, I am more amazed with how well the producers crafted the show, the spirit in which it was made. You can catch the entire series on You Tube (before they take them down) if you don't want to slog through Astro's scheduling and ads.
Patrick and I go a long way back, though he would probably have zero recollection. I was the Vice President of my Interact Club then (which was a big deal for me as I was in Form 5 only and usually only Lower/Upper Sixers get the Vice President and President positions) and the Interact Club was "the" club to be in if you are from Ipoh. We had the best fund raisers and charity projects. One of our yearly highlights was Beatnite which was a big event (ala American Idol) where only students from Ipoh were encouraged to compete. It was a big charity event as well. We have sellouts for heats and the finals was at Town Hall in Ipoh which would sellout close to 2,000 seats. Every year we managed to raise between RM10,000 to RM20,000 which was a really big sum back then.
That year I was organising and we managed to get "for free" Alleycats (gawd, they were so big even then when they did immaculate versions of all Bee Gees disco hits), the then popular Jennifer Yen and Patrick Teoh as guest judge. I remembered that that was before the time when stand up comedy was the norm, but I insisted that he speak for 5-10 minutes, being supremely confident that he will be well received with his #1 radio show, and being an Ipoh boy and old Michaelian to boot. Hence to me, Patrick really had his first stand up stint back then.
I met him and his family members at the door, I remember chatting with him for a long while as sometimes the performances can be a bit dreary and he dragged me out for a smoke (not me, just him smoking as I was still in my uniform then). He came on and did 15 minutes, poking fun on everything, the school and life in Ipoh, his childhood and everything. I think it was a blast for him and his family, it sure was for the rest of us. He had to watch a bit what he was saying as Brother Ultan Paul was also in the audience, but it was a real gem of a time.
So that's my connection to Patrick. I like him a lot because he is who he is, says what he wants and is fair. His liberal use of swear words is absolutely fine and appropriate as I also believe appropriate swearing or the use of harsh language is for clarity and emphasis - as is in my blog.
I like that he still gets angry. Anger is not a sin, being grey is. You have to be angry at injustices, stupidity, ignorance, shallowness .... if you are like a monk who is calm and collected and consider all these things as trivialities of life, good for you. While the New Testament has been focused on love and redemption, anger is the underlying theme as well. Anger at sin, anger at unnecessary violence, anger at those who disregard the sanctity of human rights and the lack of generosity of the human spirit.
The book's title is brilliant and apt. You all should go and get it.
Below is the review by Malaysian Insider:
(Disclaimer: I received a complimentary copy of this book from ZI Publications with no obligations to review it)
Hey, Patrick Teoh has a book out. That’s all you need to know.
Well, alright, some details. Teohlogy: The word according to Patrick Teoh is a compilation of his articles from The Edge and Off The Edge (OTE) magazines from 2005 to 2010 when the OTE sadly folded. So if you have been a regular reader and have in fact collected the issues than this book has nothing new for you (but if you have been a regular reader than OTE would still be in print today, wouldn’t it?)
His colums were acerbic then and still are now. Patrick comes off as grouchy but can anyone blame him? He writes about Malaysia and Malaysians and reserves his special sauce of vitriol for Malaysian politicians (and why not?), but others like mat rempit, public transport and even a marketing manager of a local film distributor receives sneers from him.
A bit of warning though. Witty he may be, but reading all 5-years worth of columns in one sitting (and it’s possible, they’re all quite short) and the giggles you get may be occasionally accompanied by abrupt silence when you realise that you are giggling at what’s wrong with this country. Because that’s what articles collected in Teohlogy are all about. They are musings of a grumpy old man who loves his nation but is sometimes frustrated with his fellow rakyat and especially with his largely incompetent elected leaders. We are essentially laughing at ourselves, which is always good, but then we realise that after a decade into the new millennium and half a decade of Patrick’s observations we still haven’t changed much. And that’s bad. Dang you, Patrick Teoh for making me sad while laughing. I’m so confused now.
------------------------------
The second part of my posting is on the brilliant TV reality show Junior Masterchef Australia. The Masterchef series was such a big hit in OZ land, it was much better produced than the ones you see on Astro from the US, UK and Canada for sure. It had spunk (please search OZ dictionary for the meaning).
Now Astro had just started to show the Junior Masterchef series, its incredible. 8-12 year olds going through the heats, elimination rounds and then the finale. It was gripping television. When I saw the title of the program, I though "oh no, they are going to exploit the kids, they are going to edit their words to make for gripping drama and tensed relations between the contestants, there are going to be the Simon Cowells to spice up things" ... but no, the entire thing was done so respectful to the kids. The kids were amazing, we are not talking about making pancakes or simple pasta dishes, they were cooking up dishes that can easily make the top restaurants in any country - simply unbelievable at their age.
What was more wonderful was how the judges and guest chefs treated the kids with respect, how they handle the elimiations without any hint of callousness, never to belittle or demean a kid ... it was such a wonderful sight to see supportive parents not mattering how well or badly they did, ... not the overbearing ones and certainly not those who worked (and living vicariously through) their kids to death to win the kiddie pageants types.
While I am amazed with their talents, I am more amazed with how well the producers crafted the show, the spirit in which it was made. You can catch the entire series on You Tube (before they take them down) if you don't want to slog through Astro's scheduling and ads.
My Life in Hotels Part 2
Some of you may remember I commented previously that I only get decent hotel rooms when I am on my own and whenever my wife Judith comes along I get a diabolical one. It has become a bit of a standing joke between us though I am not convinced she sees the funny side of it. One particular example of this was when we both ended up staying at the Cumberland Hotel London many years ago.
It is quite an upmarket place now with statues, bright marble and bohemian looking reception staff but then it was a tired, enormous monolith of a place. In those days the numerous rooms housed mass tourists from every part of the world plus guests using their banqueting facility. It was for the latter that we were there for.
The evening started badly. At literally the last moment I managed to scrounge a second place for Judith who quickly climbed into her finery and jumped into the car which promptly would not start. I frantically called the local garage who came round, scratched their heads tut-tutted a lot and said “This car is going nowhere mate”. However they did agree to lend us their young mechanics car for the night. This was an ancient Ford Escort with lots of stickers and a giant whip aerial. We looked rather special in it seeing as we were wearing full evening dress.
We arrived at the hotel late and rather bedraggled as we had soon found out that although you could wind the window down you could not then wind them up again. As we could not find anywhere near Marble Arch to park and as I was not aware the hotel had a car park I decided to pull in front of the main entrance and give the keys to the doorman. It was amusing to see his face as he tried to climb in top hat and all while the next car (a Porsche Carrera) waited.
There was no time to spare so, instead of checking in we dashed (via the ladies loo) to the banqueting suite. It turned out to be a bland affair. I could hear nothing because of the big band next to my right ear and Judith had a monosyllabic man with halitosis next to her. Thankfully the formalities ended before midnight and off we went to check in. Unfortunately they said they had no rooms left except for one single they kept for ‘emergencies’.
It was the worst single I have ever had the misfortune to be put in as it was tiny, next to the lift and contained little more than a small bed and a basin. Needless to say Judith loved it. “This is lovely” she said over and over again as she tried to take her make-up off without tripping up over her very expensive dress that was precariously balanced over the single wooden chair.
Actually it wasn’t the absolutely worse single but I was on my own that time. I was at the old Heathrow Park Hotel. I had a room next to reception and I first identified something was wrong when I noticed all the locks were on the outside. I then spotted the barred windows and realised it was a room usually kept to detain deportees overnight before expulsion. “Don’t worry” the receptionist said. Just ring us in the morning and we will let you out “You are after all on an agent’s discount”. That does not make me a bad person” I replied. Anyway, I digress.
We went to bed and I now know how sardines must feel. It was hell but somehow we both fell into an exhausted sleep...until the door was knocked on for the first of a number of times. Having slithered out of my side of the bed I opened the door to find this middle aged lady with lots of lipstick and few clothes who asked me if I ‘fancied a push’. It took a moment for my sleep addled brain to realise what she was saying. It did not take her as long to understand what my wife was yelling from the bed. This happened three further times before we got up at about three in the morning to drive home for some rest.
When we went to check out we found we were in a queue of ladies. All of them were trying to exchange the foreign currency they had been earning upstairs. These included our first lady who had obviously persuaded a yen paying Japanese person to have ‘a push’. It seems they had a special method of business in such hotels where they obtain a list of all the numbers of single rooms and work their way around them in the hopes of finding lone and lonely men. We fled into the night in our whip aerialled chariot and vowed never to return.
The Cumberland is an amazing old structure. What many people don’t know is that it has as many floors under the ground as above. They are all low ceilinged and very much how I assume the catacombs look. They are deserted except for old furniture and I think they may have been used in the Second World War
In the end I did actually go back. It was when the hotel changed ownership and had been given a total revamp. It really is quite gorgeous and not a lady of the night in sight. I had a great room too…as Judith was not with me!
It is quite an upmarket place now with statues, bright marble and bohemian looking reception staff but then it was a tired, enormous monolith of a place. In those days the numerous rooms housed mass tourists from every part of the world plus guests using their banqueting facility. It was for the latter that we were there for.
The evening started badly. At literally the last moment I managed to scrounge a second place for Judith who quickly climbed into her finery and jumped into the car which promptly would not start. I frantically called the local garage who came round, scratched their heads tut-tutted a lot and said “This car is going nowhere mate”. However they did agree to lend us their young mechanics car for the night. This was an ancient Ford Escort with lots of stickers and a giant whip aerial. We looked rather special in it seeing as we were wearing full evening dress.
We arrived at the hotel late and rather bedraggled as we had soon found out that although you could wind the window down you could not then wind them up again. As we could not find anywhere near Marble Arch to park and as I was not aware the hotel had a car park I decided to pull in front of the main entrance and give the keys to the doorman. It was amusing to see his face as he tried to climb in top hat and all while the next car (a Porsche Carrera) waited.
There was no time to spare so, instead of checking in we dashed (via the ladies loo) to the banqueting suite. It turned out to be a bland affair. I could hear nothing because of the big band next to my right ear and Judith had a monosyllabic man with halitosis next to her. Thankfully the formalities ended before midnight and off we went to check in. Unfortunately they said they had no rooms left except for one single they kept for ‘emergencies’.
It was the worst single I have ever had the misfortune to be put in as it was tiny, next to the lift and contained little more than a small bed and a basin. Needless to say Judith loved it. “This is lovely” she said over and over again as she tried to take her make-up off without tripping up over her very expensive dress that was precariously balanced over the single wooden chair.
Actually it wasn’t the absolutely worse single but I was on my own that time. I was at the old Heathrow Park Hotel. I had a room next to reception and I first identified something was wrong when I noticed all the locks were on the outside. I then spotted the barred windows and realised it was a room usually kept to detain deportees overnight before expulsion. “Don’t worry” the receptionist said. Just ring us in the morning and we will let you out “You are after all on an agent’s discount”. That does not make me a bad person” I replied. Anyway, I digress.
We went to bed and I now know how sardines must feel. It was hell but somehow we both fell into an exhausted sleep...until the door was knocked on for the first of a number of times. Having slithered out of my side of the bed I opened the door to find this middle aged lady with lots of lipstick and few clothes who asked me if I ‘fancied a push’. It took a moment for my sleep addled brain to realise what she was saying. It did not take her as long to understand what my wife was yelling from the bed. This happened three further times before we got up at about three in the morning to drive home for some rest.
When we went to check out we found we were in a queue of ladies. All of them were trying to exchange the foreign currency they had been earning upstairs. These included our first lady who had obviously persuaded a yen paying Japanese person to have ‘a push’. It seems they had a special method of business in such hotels where they obtain a list of all the numbers of single rooms and work their way around them in the hopes of finding lone and lonely men. We fled into the night in our whip aerialled chariot and vowed never to return.
The Cumberland is an amazing old structure. What many people don’t know is that it has as many floors under the ground as above. They are all low ceilinged and very much how I assume the catacombs look. They are deserted except for old furniture and I think they may have been used in the Second World War
In the end I did actually go back. It was when the hotel changed ownership and had been given a total revamp. It really is quite gorgeous and not a lady of the night in sight. I had a great room too…as Judith was not with me!
Anybody Understand the Corporate Hotel Market?
I spoke to somebody last week about the problems they were having whilst trying to organise a managed hotel programme for their company. He is new to this side of the business and could not comprehend the basic issues he was facing. All he was certain of was that nobody really knew what the company spent and whether they were getting good value. Ok they had a corporate card that most travellers used but nobody seemed to be able to tell him any useful spend detail.
He was also concerned that there seemed no simple, coordinated and efficient way of making, changing or cancelling bookings. There were so many different ways and each with varying processes. Some you could book online and some you couldn’t. Some on the GDS but most not. The majority necessitated a call to an agency which cost too much for such a transaction. He correctly identified that these variations contributed greatly to the lack of proper MI. What he wanted to know from me was what the problem is? Why is it so hard to book hotels in a way that gives him as a buyer what he absolutely needs to do his job? I gave him the basics as I saw them and thought you might like to read them too.
The hotel market is hugely fragmented. There are thousands upon thousands of hotel and most of them act individually. Yes there are major hotel chains and yes there are consortiums but even here a large amount are privately owned. Consolidating a programme becomes very difficult when there are so many different players with different systems and different communications methods and language. This differs hugely from airlines which are not only far smaller in numbers but use the same GDS booking platforms and share similar systems and codes however I did warn him that this may be changing soon!
So how should one make a reservation? It would be good to combine it with the air or rail booking but unfortunately the range of hotels in the airline booking systems (GDS) is tiny compared with the market. Add to that the difficulty of being able to use your own negotiated fares or room allocations and it becomes not a very feasible option.
You could connect to the numerous hotel booking web sites but again can you be sure you will be booking your deal and capturing sufficient detail. You might get one-off savings using their buying power but creating a nightmare in payment, reporting and control terms.
Out of frustration and a desire to save fees charged by agencies many travellers book direct with the hotel but is that what you really want them to spend time doing? And then again you could miss out on consolidated MI for policy measurement, security and negotiating purposes. I can understand why travellers or their administrators want to make hotel bookings personally but in my view you can forget about control if you let them do it. It is also very vexing when they find out the hotel GM is spot selling rates cheaper than your centrally negotiated deal. This is another thing that regularly happens in this industry.
I advised him that I can only see one logical way of consolidating all ones spend items together and that is through a Travel Management Company (TMC). There are not that many yet who can provide a true solution and it does not come for nothing so buyers need to be absolutely committed in order to reap full benefit
You basically need to find a TMC that can deliver a system that seamlessly links the GDS booking system to their own separate hotel booking and management platform. This platform needs to directly connect with the main hotel chains and have the ability to store and manage your negotiated rates and room allocations with them and the others. All this, and other services need to be on one customer friendly booking screen. It would also be valuable to have this screen branded to your company not the TMC.
Taking pre booked room allocations at key locations is essential in order to allow the system to confirm rooms to travellers straight away and avoid unnecessary costly and time consuming middle-man phone calls. These allocations when combined with those negotiated by the TMC themselves often mean that hotels that seem full can still be bookable to you. It also results in your travellers have their own company one stop shop that pulls together their whole journey along with bolt on services such as policy compliance authorisation system and communication opportunities.
To me his choice is relatively straightforward. He either does what 90% plus of corporations do which is keep their hotel programme separate from air or go the whole hog and combine the two in an online total travel solution which is only now beginning to become a viable solution. I wished him luck and went back to my hotel room…which I booked myself!
He was also concerned that there seemed no simple, coordinated and efficient way of making, changing or cancelling bookings. There were so many different ways and each with varying processes. Some you could book online and some you couldn’t. Some on the GDS but most not. The majority necessitated a call to an agency which cost too much for such a transaction. He correctly identified that these variations contributed greatly to the lack of proper MI. What he wanted to know from me was what the problem is? Why is it so hard to book hotels in a way that gives him as a buyer what he absolutely needs to do his job? I gave him the basics as I saw them and thought you might like to read them too.
The hotel market is hugely fragmented. There are thousands upon thousands of hotel and most of them act individually. Yes there are major hotel chains and yes there are consortiums but even here a large amount are privately owned. Consolidating a programme becomes very difficult when there are so many different players with different systems and different communications methods and language. This differs hugely from airlines which are not only far smaller in numbers but use the same GDS booking platforms and share similar systems and codes however I did warn him that this may be changing soon!
So how should one make a reservation? It would be good to combine it with the air or rail booking but unfortunately the range of hotels in the airline booking systems (GDS) is tiny compared with the market. Add to that the difficulty of being able to use your own negotiated fares or room allocations and it becomes not a very feasible option.
You could connect to the numerous hotel booking web sites but again can you be sure you will be booking your deal and capturing sufficient detail. You might get one-off savings using their buying power but creating a nightmare in payment, reporting and control terms.
Out of frustration and a desire to save fees charged by agencies many travellers book direct with the hotel but is that what you really want them to spend time doing? And then again you could miss out on consolidated MI for policy measurement, security and negotiating purposes. I can understand why travellers or their administrators want to make hotel bookings personally but in my view you can forget about control if you let them do it. It is also very vexing when they find out the hotel GM is spot selling rates cheaper than your centrally negotiated deal. This is another thing that regularly happens in this industry.
I advised him that I can only see one logical way of consolidating all ones spend items together and that is through a Travel Management Company (TMC). There are not that many yet who can provide a true solution and it does not come for nothing so buyers need to be absolutely committed in order to reap full benefit
You basically need to find a TMC that can deliver a system that seamlessly links the GDS booking system to their own separate hotel booking and management platform. This platform needs to directly connect with the main hotel chains and have the ability to store and manage your negotiated rates and room allocations with them and the others. All this, and other services need to be on one customer friendly booking screen. It would also be valuable to have this screen branded to your company not the TMC.
Taking pre booked room allocations at key locations is essential in order to allow the system to confirm rooms to travellers straight away and avoid unnecessary costly and time consuming middle-man phone calls. These allocations when combined with those negotiated by the TMC themselves often mean that hotels that seem full can still be bookable to you. It also results in your travellers have their own company one stop shop that pulls together their whole journey along with bolt on services such as policy compliance authorisation system and communication opportunities.
To me his choice is relatively straightforward. He either does what 90% plus of corporations do which is keep their hotel programme separate from air or go the whole hog and combine the two in an online total travel solution which is only now beginning to become a viable solution. I wished him luck and went back to my hotel room…which I booked myself!
When All Else Fail
Since most analysts and market experts have gotten the first couple of weeks after CNY wrong, we have little choice left but to refer to the master, the unerringly correct yearly market predictor by the CLSA team. This has been featured in some publications and numerous blogs before. Click for larger image.
The first reaction would be "damn, if only I followed the chart properly", it had February as a deliberate down month, so far so good. Too late to do anything much now, wait for market to consolidate, at least April looks decent. From the chart we should sell everythiung by end of April, proving that the old adage "sell in May" looks to be holding true again this year.
Go for holidays and then come back to load up in the last week of June.
When you run out of explanations and directions, stick to something tried and tested. Lol ... but cannot argue when its 80% correct for the past 2 years.
The first reaction would be "damn, if only I followed the chart properly", it had February as a deliberate down month, so far so good. Too late to do anything much now, wait for market to consolidate, at least April looks decent. From the chart we should sell everythiung by end of April, proving that the old adage "sell in May" looks to be holding true again this year.
Go for holidays and then come back to load up in the last week of June.
When you run out of explanations and directions, stick to something tried and tested. Lol ... but cannot argue when its 80% correct for the past 2 years.
Commentary About Hot Stocks
MPHB - Finally came out with a plan to buyout the remaining 49% from the funds which took Magnum private in the first place. If MPHB did nothing and just allow the refloatation of Magnum, that would have been a classic "wtf were you guys doing in the first place". If you allow the immediate floatation, MPHB will only gain from a revaluation of its 51% stake as it cannot sell that down, and chances are MPHB minority shareholders will just be standing by the sidelines watching Magnum being relisted. That would have been very bad PR and corporate strategy as the only real gainers would have been the 49% private equity funds, as they can sell at higher prices. If that had happened, we all should wonder what was MPHB thinking in the first place, that would have meant being party to some private equity funds, agreeing to let them take Magnum private and then allowing them to relist the thing later .... what did MPHB gain in between all that? That would have been THE SAME as letting Magnum stay listed, and who knows Magnum may have surged in valuations over the past year as well.
Luckily, MPHB was wise enough to buy the 49% and the price was good. However, MPHB said the acquisition of the stake in Magnum from CVC group, which totalled RM1.6bil, would involve an issuance of around 344 million new MPHB shares at RM2.30 each and cash amounting to around RM809.2mil. OK, here is why the private equity funds agreed to sell, the issuance of new MPHB shares at just RM2.30. This would enhance the actual real gains of these private funds' investment significantly.
But to be fair, this is the better strategy, at least when MPHB relists Magnum, I am sure MPHB shareholders will be getting some "free Magnum shares". Don't jump yet, the quantum is not fixed. It can be as rich as 1 free for every 3 shares, to a not so enticing 1 free for every 10 shares. Even so, we can safely say that there should be a small windfall. I think RM3.10-3.20 is a fair value leading up to the listing of Magnum.
Notion Vtec - The shares hit a bottom recently at around RM1.70 on very thinly traded volume following the downgrade of earnings. Now almost every analysts and funds seem to be hovering over the company like vultures on under valuation radar. There were rumours of a private equity potential buyout offer at much higher levels a few weeks back as well. That is speculation but what is true is the oversold label for Notion Vtec.
Maybank research came out with a good report recently and that they expect NVB’s 1QFY11 core results to be robust, likely ahead of consensus forecasts. Maybank's current FY11 net profit forecast is 14% above consensus. The camera segment (from new sub-assembly orders) will drive FY11 growth while the HDD section will take a back seat. We maintain our 2-year net profit CAGR forecast of 38% and introduce FY13 forecast. NVB is expected to release its 1QFY11 results in the third week of February. We estimate NVB’s 1Q revenue to be around RM56m-60m (+9-16% QoQ) with net profit of RM11m-14m (+34-71% QoQ) on stronger net margin (+2.4-9.1 ppt QoQ). This would imply 23- 29% of our full-year net profit forecast, and 25-32% of consensus.
While Maybank's estimate for 1Q net profit is already above consensus, I believe even that could be surpassed as the camera business remained solid the last time I spoke to industry experts. The over selling owing to their HDD business has been way overdone, and actually should not figure prominently as a significant segment of their biz model.
Another fact overlooked by many is that they will be getting MSC tax status which could further lift EPS by 6 sen. Maybank sees a target price of RM2.40, I am more bullish with a target of RM2.60 within 3 months. The emergence of any genuine M&A exercise would only be a bonus to their already solid fundamentals.
Ekovest - The stock has high volatility because of the numerous big projects facing them. They are likely to get RM1bn-2bn of works in the Iskandar region. Their Danga Bay project may be in for further "exercise" with Tebrau to leverage on the Iskandar themed massive project. They are also awaiting the awardment of the Klang Valley river project said to be worth up to RM8bn in value in ajv with MRCB.
All that seems fine and dandy but what piqued my interest even at levels above RM4.00 is the whispers that they may have secured the 1+3D franchise from Tanjong, in a jv with another party. If you look at Ekovest paltry paid up of just 179m shares. This would really send the counter skyhigh.
Judging from the way the shares moved up and the volume accompanying its trend, there appears to be little or no distribution of shares, which can only mean that its not just a play. I see a lot of upside for Ekovest in the weeks ahead as well as voilatility. Target, what target, how to put any target when we do not have any financials of the deals ... Enjoy the ride.
NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.
Luckily, MPHB was wise enough to buy the 49% and the price was good. However, MPHB said the acquisition of the stake in Magnum from CVC group, which totalled RM1.6bil, would involve an issuance of around 344 million new MPHB shares at RM2.30 each and cash amounting to around RM809.2mil. OK, here is why the private equity funds agreed to sell, the issuance of new MPHB shares at just RM2.30. This would enhance the actual real gains of these private funds' investment significantly.
But to be fair, this is the better strategy, at least when MPHB relists Magnum, I am sure MPHB shareholders will be getting some "free Magnum shares". Don't jump yet, the quantum is not fixed. It can be as rich as 1 free for every 3 shares, to a not so enticing 1 free for every 10 shares. Even so, we can safely say that there should be a small windfall. I think RM3.10-3.20 is a fair value leading up to the listing of Magnum.
Notion Vtec - The shares hit a bottom recently at around RM1.70 on very thinly traded volume following the downgrade of earnings. Now almost every analysts and funds seem to be hovering over the company like vultures on under valuation radar. There were rumours of a private equity potential buyout offer at much higher levels a few weeks back as well. That is speculation but what is true is the oversold label for Notion Vtec.
Maybank research came out with a good report recently and that they expect NVB’s 1QFY11 core results to be robust, likely ahead of consensus forecasts. Maybank's current FY11 net profit forecast is 14% above consensus. The camera segment (from new sub-assembly orders) will drive FY11 growth while the HDD section will take a back seat. We maintain our 2-year net profit CAGR forecast of 38% and introduce FY13 forecast. NVB is expected to release its 1QFY11 results in the third week of February. We estimate NVB’s 1Q revenue to be around RM56m-60m (+9-16% QoQ) with net profit of RM11m-14m (+34-71% QoQ) on stronger net margin (+2.4-9.1 ppt QoQ). This would imply 23- 29% of our full-year net profit forecast, and 25-32% of consensus.
While Maybank's estimate for 1Q net profit is already above consensus, I believe even that could be surpassed as the camera business remained solid the last time I spoke to industry experts. The over selling owing to their HDD business has been way overdone, and actually should not figure prominently as a significant segment of their biz model.
Another fact overlooked by many is that they will be getting MSC tax status which could further lift EPS by 6 sen. Maybank sees a target price of RM2.40, I am more bullish with a target of RM2.60 within 3 months. The emergence of any genuine M&A exercise would only be a bonus to their already solid fundamentals.
Ekovest - The stock has high volatility because of the numerous big projects facing them. They are likely to get RM1bn-2bn of works in the Iskandar region. Their Danga Bay project may be in for further "exercise" with Tebrau to leverage on the Iskandar themed massive project. They are also awaiting the awardment of the Klang Valley river project said to be worth up to RM8bn in value in ajv with MRCB.
All that seems fine and dandy but what piqued my interest even at levels above RM4.00 is the whispers that they may have secured the 1+3D franchise from Tanjong, in a jv with another party. If you look at Ekovest paltry paid up of just 179m shares. This would really send the counter skyhigh.
Judging from the way the shares moved up and the volume accompanying its trend, there appears to be little or no distribution of shares, which can only mean that its not just a play. I see a lot of upside for Ekovest in the weeks ahead as well as voilatility. Target, what target, how to put any target when we do not have any financials of the deals ... Enjoy the ride.
NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.
What's The Fuss About Mubarak?
Not all of us are widely read about international affairs. We see something erupting, a crisis, a massive chaos of people protesting, but why?
AFP: US President Barack Obama said Friday the people of Egypt had spoken after history moved at a "blinding pace," and called on the now-ruling military to ensure a transition towards "genuine democracy". Obama gave a statement soon after it emerged from a euphoric Cairo that President Hosni Mubarak, a 30-year US ally who America subtly helped push towards the exit, had resigned after days of raging street protests.
---------------------------------
Jason Koutsoukis in Cairo.
AFP: US President Barack Obama said Friday the people of Egypt had spoken after history moved at a "blinding pace," and called on the now-ruling military to ensure a transition towards "genuine democracy". Obama gave a statement soon after it emerged from a euphoric Cairo that President Hosni Mubarak, a 30-year US ally who America subtly helped push towards the exit, had resigned after days of raging street protests.
"The people of Egypt have spoken - their voices have been heard and Egypt will never be the same," Obama said.
"Egyptians have made it clear that nothing less than genuine democracy will carry the day," Obama said, praising the military for safeguarding the state, but also calling on them to secure a credible political transition.
The US administration had struggled for days to find ways of impacting the 18-day crisis, as Mubarak had defied pressure to end his long authoritarian rule. Obama had ratcheted up calls for a peaceful, swift transition to democracy, and on Friday he pledged that the United States would stand with the people of Egypt - one of America's staunchest allies and a recipient of some two billion dollars in annual aid.
"By stepping down, President Mubarak responded to the Egyptian peoples' hunger for change," Obama said in his brief statement.
On taking power Friday, the military moved quickly to reassure the citizens whose street revolt toppled Mubarak that it would respect the popular will.
And the White House called on the new authorities in Egypt to honour existing peace agreements with Israel.
"It is important the next government of Egypt recognise the accords that have been signed with the government of Israel," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said.
Mubarak's hurried departure Friday - after saying late Thursday he would stay until September's elections - will have brought relief in Washington, facing a dearth of options to force an end to the crisis. But Mubarak's exit also posed searching questions about future US Middle East policy, with a possible power vacuum in Egypt.
Still, Obama hailed the toppling of the Arab strongman, brought down by two-weeks of mass protests in Cairo's Tahrir Square, as a defining moment in world history.
"The word Tahrir means liberation. It's a word that speaks to that something in our souls that cries out for freedom," Obama said.
"Forever more it will remind us of the Egyptian people, of what they did, of the things that they stood for, and how they changed their country and in doing so changed the world."
The president also drew parallels to other tumultuous world events, highlighting the end of the Berlin Wall, Indonesians rising up against president Suharto, and Indian independence icon Mahatma Gandhi.
"We can't help, but hear the echoes of history, echoes from Germans tearing down a wall, Indonesian students taking to the streets, Gandhi leading his people down a path of justice," Obama said.
He called on the armed forces to now ensure a political transition that is "credible in the eyes of the Egyptian people," Obama said, warning that there could be "difficult days ahead."
"Over the last few weeks, the wheel of history turned at a blinding pace, as the Egyptian people demanded their universal rights," he said.
Besides praising Egyptians, Obama also sought to make a wider point, apparently seeking to connect with Muslims elsewhere who felt marginalised and may be easy prey for extremists.
"Egyptians have inspired us and they've done so by putting the lie to the idea that justice is best gained through violence," Obama said.
"For Egypt, it was the moral force of non-violence, not terrorism, not mindless killing, but non-violence, moral force, that bent the arc of history towards justice one more."
US lawmakers on Friday were also weighing tighter controls on exports that can help repressive regimes cling to power.
The US Congress, which cheered anti-government protests in Iran last year, also applauded the turmoil that toppled Mubarak, amid worries that US aid and know-how hurt both movements.
"We continue to watch and have concerns about the misuse of any equipment that the United States provides or sells to another nation," said a spokesman for the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee, Josh Holly.
© 2011 AFP---------------------------------
Former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak moved assets into untraceable accounts abroad during the 18 days of protests before his resignation, the Sunday Telegraph reported, citing unidentified intelligence sources.
Mubarak may have accumulated more than 3 billion pounds ($4.8 billion / RM6.2 billion) over his 30-year reign, according to the newspaper. Financial advisers to the Mubarak family tried to move some of these assets beyond the reach of investigators to Gulf states, the newspaper said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Michelle E. Frazer in London at mfrazer@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Colin Keatinge at ckeatinge@bloomberg.net
---------------------------Jason Koutsoukis in Cairo.
SMH: Spurred by a kitchen cabinet that included his wife, Suzanne, his son, Gamal, and his Vice President, Omar Suleiman, the former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak's last hours in office were marked by a desperate attempt to cling to power.
In a detailed account published by al-Ahram, Egypt's largest-selling newspaper, military leaders threatened to publish their own statement announcing that Mubarak had been sacked.
The newspaper said a statement announcing Mubarak's resignation was pre-recorded by the army's chief-of-staff, Sami Enan, and delivered to the offices of the state television broadcaster Nile TV.
In the end the statement was not broadcast after Suleiman agreed at the last minute to read his own statement that Mubarak had resigned in the interests of the country.
In the days since the resignation, senior government and party officials have confirmed that Mubarak originally made a commitment to resign on Thursday, only to change his mind at the last minute.
Al-Ahram and Associated Press reported that Mubarak's top aides and family concealed the full extent of what was happening on the streets, instead telling the 82-year-old that he could ride out the turmoil which had brought the country to a virtual standstill.
The insider account portrayed Mubarak as ''unable, or unwilling, to grasp that nothing less than his immediate departure would save the country from the chaos generated by the protests'', that he lacked strong advisers who could tell him what was really happening.
''He did not look beyond what Gamal was telling him, so he was isolated politically,'' one official was quoted as saying. ''Every incremental move [by Mubarak] was too little, too late.''
Mubarak, said another official, ''tried to manage the crisis within the existing structures and norms'' but the incremental reforms he offered would never suffice to placate the protesters.
As the unrest mounted on Thursday, with more people on the streets and labour unions calling for a general strike, the military grew impatient and Mubarak's cabinet also divided.
Quoting senior Egyptian officials, editors and journalists from other state newspapers close to the regime, retired army generals in contact with top active duty officers and senior members of Mubarak's National Democratic Party, the report said it was military leaders who had persuaded Mubarak to appoint Suleiman, the intelligence chief, as Vice President to try to quell the protests.
But when chaos continued for 18 days, insiders believed Mubarak had reached the end.
That was Thursday. Hossam Badrawi, secretary general of the then ruling National Democratic Party, met Mubarak that afternoon and told reporters he expected the president to ''meet people's demands''.
The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces issued a statement recognising the ''legitimate'' rights of the protesters, even calling the statement ''Communique No. 1'' in language that reflected their belief that they had already taken power.
The Prime Minister, Ahmed Shafik, gave an interview to the BBC's Arabic channel in which he also strongly hinted that Mubarak would be stepping down. But as Mubarak prepared what many believed would be his resignation speech, he changed his mind.
One insider quoted by al-Ahram said Gamal, 47, who had been touted as the president's successor, rewrote his father's speech several times before it went to air shortly before 11pm.
The then information minister, Anas al-Fiqqi, who, a few hours before the speech went to air, made a public statement saying that Mubarak would not resign, was also present when the recording was made.
On Friday, as Mubarak flew to more secure surrounds in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, the military allowed protesters to gather outside his Cairo residence, as well as clog the streets surrounding the state television and radio offices, the areas around parliament and the offices of the Prime Minister.
That proved to be the final straw. The military acted. Shortly after 6pm on Friday, with millions on the streets in Cairo and a string of other cities, Suleiman performed the last official act of his 10-day period in office.
His statement announcing the end of Mubarak's 30-year rule of Egypt lasted 49 seconds.
My life in hotels Part 1
I’ve been in some strange rooms in some strange places in my time. I suppose it is hardly surprising considering my career as an airline and travel agency man. They have ranged from a shed like structure in Kenya to an unintentional baroque style brothel in Columbia. The latter tried to deliver to me a whole new concept in bed turnover service that included two French maids and their ‘apparatus’...
I have stayed in some pretty opulent rooms too and one I still remember today for a number of reasons. It was at the Mayfair in London. It is a grand old hotel with mainly huge rooms and a justified 5 star rating. Part of my job at the time was buying hotel rooms for my agency so they obviously decided to impress me by an upgrade to one of their best rooms called the ‘Maharaja Suite’.
I always find it ironic that whenever alone and on business I get great rooms but when travelling with my wife they are invariable tiny and above the hotel kitchen. As I found my suite which topically had a picture of an Indian elephant on the door I reminded myself to say nothing to Judith when I got home as, for some reason, she never seems terribly pleased for me! However, after what I experienced, I could not resist.
The Maharaja suite was vast and bigger than my home at that time. It had a lounge with a huge balcony, two bathrooms and two big bedrooms. In the lounge there was a beautiful, and very expensive black shiny Steinway grand piano and I could not resist the urge to play something. I was half way through the one fingered version of ‘Michael Row the Boat Ashore’ when I could not help but notice some nasty deep scratches above the keyboard and on the top.
My first thought was ‘Oh no, they might think it was me, I better call the manager immediately’. I rang a very calm man who said he would be right up to explain. When he arrived he reassured me the scratches were not only known about but preserved for posterity. It seemed that in the early seventies the Rolling Stones had rented the suite and one of them had ‘entertained’ a certain famous lady singing artist across the piano to amuse his friends. Unfortunately for the piano he did not take the time to remove his belt first. Nasty things buckles.
He then apologised for the second bedroom which I had yet to see. We looked inside and the whole room had been stripped. Also a new wood floor had been laid over the carpet. This had been done for the next guest who was to arrive late the following day. That guest was Michael Jackson who apparentlydemanded a dance floor in every suite for him to practise his moves. After the manager left I could not resist and did a moon-walk across the floor and scribbled in a corner ‘Hello Michael’underneath a Kilroy sketch.
Finally I got tired of sitting all alone in the vast lounge morosely reading about business travel and decide to have a bath. This was when the suite yielded up its most surreal secret. The room had a 6 foot square bath and everything else was mirrors. Mirrored walls, mirrored tiles and even a mirrored ceiling and it was most disconcerting.
As I sat in the middle of that bath I felt like a sardine in the Pacific All I could see was me. I saw bits of me that I have never seen before and never wish to see again. Where did that mole, that roll of fat, those hairs come from I pondered. In fact I finished washing with my eyes shut. Cleaning my teeth was no better as I got about 18 views of my bum and none of them were flattering.
I went to bed and lay there thinking. What on earth had gone on in that bath and this bed before me? A blooming sight more interesting than a travel agent writing his presentation I thought and a damn sight more successful I suspected. Finally I ordered room service breakfast and went to sleep. When it arrived in the morning the maid told me that she had never brought breakfast for only one and so early to the Maharajah suite before. Oh great I thought, a fantastic record to hold.
I have stayed in some pretty opulent rooms too and one I still remember today for a number of reasons. It was at the Mayfair in London. It is a grand old hotel with mainly huge rooms and a justified 5 star rating. Part of my job at the time was buying hotel rooms for my agency so they obviously decided to impress me by an upgrade to one of their best rooms called the ‘Maharaja Suite’.
I always find it ironic that whenever alone and on business I get great rooms but when travelling with my wife they are invariable tiny and above the hotel kitchen. As I found my suite which topically had a picture of an Indian elephant on the door I reminded myself to say nothing to Judith when I got home as, for some reason, she never seems terribly pleased for me! However, after what I experienced, I could not resist.
The Maharaja suite was vast and bigger than my home at that time. It had a lounge with a huge balcony, two bathrooms and two big bedrooms. In the lounge there was a beautiful, and very expensive black shiny Steinway grand piano and I could not resist the urge to play something. I was half way through the one fingered version of ‘Michael Row the Boat Ashore’ when I could not help but notice some nasty deep scratches above the keyboard and on the top.
My first thought was ‘Oh no, they might think it was me, I better call the manager immediately’. I rang a very calm man who said he would be right up to explain. When he arrived he reassured me the scratches were not only known about but preserved for posterity. It seemed that in the early seventies the Rolling Stones had rented the suite and one of them had ‘entertained’ a certain famous lady singing artist across the piano to amuse his friends. Unfortunately for the piano he did not take the time to remove his belt first. Nasty things buckles.
He then apologised for the second bedroom which I had yet to see. We looked inside and the whole room had been stripped. Also a new wood floor had been laid over the carpet. This had been done for the next guest who was to arrive late the following day. That guest was Michael Jackson who apparentlydemanded a dance floor in every suite for him to practise his moves. After the manager left I could not resist and did a moon-walk across the floor and scribbled in a corner ‘Hello Michael’underneath a Kilroy sketch.
Finally I got tired of sitting all alone in the vast lounge morosely reading about business travel and decide to have a bath. This was when the suite yielded up its most surreal secret. The room had a 6 foot square bath and everything else was mirrors. Mirrored walls, mirrored tiles and even a mirrored ceiling and it was most disconcerting.
As I sat in the middle of that bath I felt like a sardine in the Pacific All I could see was me. I saw bits of me that I have never seen before and never wish to see again. Where did that mole, that roll of fat, those hairs come from I pondered. In fact I finished washing with my eyes shut. Cleaning my teeth was no better as I got about 18 views of my bum and none of them were flattering.
I went to bed and lay there thinking. What on earth had gone on in that bath and this bed before me? A blooming sight more interesting than a travel agent writing his presentation I thought and a damn sight more successful I suspected. Finally I ordered room service breakfast and went to sleep. When it arrived in the morning the maid told me that she had never brought breakfast for only one and so early to the Maharajah suite before. Oh great I thought, a fantastic record to hold.
UBS Sees A Trickle Not A Torrent
A trickle, not a torrent
Year-to-date equity flows modestly negative; no ‘capital flight’. Data from various sources suggests that inflows to Asia have slowed, but we are by no means seeing ‘capital flight’ from the region. Outflows over the past 4 weeks look to be small and nothing out of the ordinary versus history in Asia ex Japan.
Outflow from Asia/EM funding the DM outperformance?
A more important question is whether the outflow could accelerate if developed
markets (DM) continue to outperform. Looking at the data since 1990, it is rare
that Asia would see outflow whilst DM see inflows except during financial crises
and global bear markets. We are not expecting a reversal of last year’s flows.
India flow not as extreme as it appears; Indonesia back to Sep 2010. Adjusted for market performance, inflow into Indian equities in 2010 was the highest amongst Asian markets at ~10% of market cap, which would imply the greatest vulnerability to a reversal. That said, the inflow was in line with history and reversals tend to be modest and short-lived in India ex-the financial crisis. Foreigner stockholdings in Indonesia are now almost back to the pre-Q4 2010: from a flow perspective the market appears to have adjusted the most.
Strong inflow into Korea/Taiwan unlikely to continue
Whilst flows into India and Indonesia have been weak over the past 3 months, they have been strong in Korea and picked up significantly in Taiwan, which have been reflected in the relative performance. Flows to neither market (KR/TW) look
extreme; however, it would be unusual for them to continue in the current pace.
The recent underperformance of Asia ex Japan equities versus developed markets, on the back of strong G7 economic data and ongoing inflation concerns in Asia, are leading to many questions (and fears) about a sustained reversal of fund flows into this region, and in turn, further underperformance from Asian equities.
While flows are starting to reverse on some measures, we are not seeing
calamitous selling. More importantly, we also find historically that when the US
outperforms Asia in a rising market, there is little evidence of investors selling
Asian funds to ‘get overweight’ developed markets. More often, flows to Asia just slow down. In other words, fears that the recent outperformance of the US versus Asia will lead to a substantial reversal of flows in our view seem overplayed.
At the country level, India’s flows, at 10% of market cap during 2010, were the
highest. If there is a foreign capital flight, this market looks most vulnerable. The good news is that, historically, equity portfolio outflows have tended to be moderate and shortlived affairs in India, with the exception of the global financial crisis. In other words, strong inflows do not usually reverse. Taiwan’s flows, very strong in the last quarter of the year, look unlikely in our opinion to repeat themselves. We see no positive or negative in Korea’s flow data, which has been steady and unspectacular for most of the last year, i.e. not vulnerable in our opinion. Finally, the froth in inflows in September/October last year into Indonesia has entirely reversed. From a flow perspective the Indonesian data
looks most interesting.
Regional flows – modest outflows
In recent weeks, flows have turned negative from Asia ex Japan. We look at this
in two ways. In Chart 1 we show data from Emerging Portfolio Fund Research (EPFR) – an aggregator of mainly retail flows. This shows data into Asia ex Japan funds (and ETFs) over the last few years, and we deflate it by market cap.
Because the individual week to week data can be quite jumpy, we take a four
week moving average of the data. As the chart shows, in recent weeks, the flows
have started to turn negative. But very modestly so. Clearly there has been a
moderation in the momentum but by no means is capital ‘fleeing’ Asian equities.
We see the same pattern from the individual stock market data of net purchases
of Asia equities by foreigners. This data is only available for India, Indonesia,
the Philippines, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. The general trend is similar. As
we show in Chart 2, foreigner net purchases tapered off towards the end of 2010,
but we are not seeing significant outflows from the region.
The first point is that flows are very modestly negative, but there is not, as yet,
panic selling or calamitous outflows. One of the questions we have encountered
in recent weeks surrounds the fear that we are on the brink of major outflows –
that investors could turn major sellers of Asian equities to fund inflows to
developed markets, given their recent outperformance, better G7 economic data
and inflations fears here in Asia.
Looking back at US mutual fund data back to 1990, we see no evidence that this
actually happens when Asia underperforms the US, with the notable exceptions
of bear markets. In other words, if Asia keeps underperforming US equities, in a
rising market environment (or at least one that is not a global bear market), it is not unreasonable to see US flows being positive, but Asian flows also positive.
In Chart 3, we show the 3 episodes since 1990 when EM flows are negative
whilst DM flows are positive – two of them are during global bear markets
whilst the other one relates to the Asian financial crisis. For sure, there is an asset allocation shift at the margin away from Asia to developed markets that has mirrored the recent outperformance of developed markets. But flows don’t tend to fully reverse and turn negative unless we are in a major bear market. More likely, what seems to be driving the US and other developed markets up, is
an asset allocation shift away from fixed income to developed equities – as the
data suggests.
Strategy summary
While flows are starting to reverse on some measures, we are not seeing
calamitous selling. More importantly, we also find historically that when the US
outperforms Asia in a rising market, there is little evidence of investors selling
Asian funds to ‘get overweight’ developed markets. More often, flows to Asia
just slow down. In other words fears that the recent outperformance of the US
versus Asia will lead to a substantial reversal of flows seem over played.
At the country level, India’s flows, at 10% of market cap in 2010, were the highest. If there is foreign capital flight, this market looks the most vulnerable.
The good news is that historically, equity portfolio outflows have tended to be
moderate and short-lived affairs in India, with the exception of the global
financial crisis. In other words, strong inflows do not usually reverse. Taiwan’s
flows, very strong in the last quarter of the year, look unlikely in our opinion to repeat themselves. We see no positive or negative in Korea’s flow data, which
has been steady and unspectacular for most of the last year, i.e. not vulnerable in our opinion. Finally, the froth in inflows in September/October last year into
Indonesia has entirely reversed. From a flow perspective the Indonesian data
looks most interesting (on the positive side).
Year-to-date equity flows modestly negative; no ‘capital flight’. Data from various sources suggests that inflows to Asia have slowed, but we are by no means seeing ‘capital flight’ from the region. Outflows over the past 4 weeks look to be small and nothing out of the ordinary versus history in Asia ex Japan.
Outflow from Asia/EM funding the DM outperformance?
A more important question is whether the outflow could accelerate if developed
markets (DM) continue to outperform. Looking at the data since 1990, it is rare
that Asia would see outflow whilst DM see inflows except during financial crises
and global bear markets. We are not expecting a reversal of last year’s flows.
India flow not as extreme as it appears; Indonesia back to Sep 2010. Adjusted for market performance, inflow into Indian equities in 2010 was the highest amongst Asian markets at ~10% of market cap, which would imply the greatest vulnerability to a reversal. That said, the inflow was in line with history and reversals tend to be modest and short-lived in India ex-the financial crisis. Foreigner stockholdings in Indonesia are now almost back to the pre-Q4 2010: from a flow perspective the market appears to have adjusted the most.
Strong inflow into Korea/Taiwan unlikely to continue
Whilst flows into India and Indonesia have been weak over the past 3 months, they have been strong in Korea and picked up significantly in Taiwan, which have been reflected in the relative performance. Flows to neither market (KR/TW) look
extreme; however, it would be unusual for them to continue in the current pace.
The recent underperformance of Asia ex Japan equities versus developed markets, on the back of strong G7 economic data and ongoing inflation concerns in Asia, are leading to many questions (and fears) about a sustained reversal of fund flows into this region, and in turn, further underperformance from Asian equities.
While flows are starting to reverse on some measures, we are not seeing
calamitous selling. More importantly, we also find historically that when the US
outperforms Asia in a rising market, there is little evidence of investors selling
Asian funds to ‘get overweight’ developed markets. More often, flows to Asia just slow down. In other words, fears that the recent outperformance of the US versus Asia will lead to a substantial reversal of flows in our view seem overplayed.
At the country level, India’s flows, at 10% of market cap during 2010, were the
highest. If there is a foreign capital flight, this market looks most vulnerable. The good news is that, historically, equity portfolio outflows have tended to be moderate and shortlived affairs in India, with the exception of the global financial crisis. In other words, strong inflows do not usually reverse. Taiwan’s flows, very strong in the last quarter of the year, look unlikely in our opinion to repeat themselves. We see no positive or negative in Korea’s flow data, which has been steady and unspectacular for most of the last year, i.e. not vulnerable in our opinion. Finally, the froth in inflows in September/October last year into Indonesia has entirely reversed. From a flow perspective the Indonesian data
looks most interesting.
Regional flows – modest outflows
In recent weeks, flows have turned negative from Asia ex Japan. We look at this
in two ways. In Chart 1 we show data from Emerging Portfolio Fund Research (EPFR) – an aggregator of mainly retail flows. This shows data into Asia ex Japan funds (and ETFs) over the last few years, and we deflate it by market cap.
Because the individual week to week data can be quite jumpy, we take a four
week moving average of the data. As the chart shows, in recent weeks, the flows
have started to turn negative. But very modestly so. Clearly there has been a
moderation in the momentum but by no means is capital ‘fleeing’ Asian equities.
We see the same pattern from the individual stock market data of net purchases
of Asia equities by foreigners. This data is only available for India, Indonesia,
the Philippines, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. The general trend is similar. As
we show in Chart 2, foreigner net purchases tapered off towards the end of 2010,
but we are not seeing significant outflows from the region.
The first point is that flows are very modestly negative, but there is not, as yet,
panic selling or calamitous outflows. One of the questions we have encountered
in recent weeks surrounds the fear that we are on the brink of major outflows –
that investors could turn major sellers of Asian equities to fund inflows to
developed markets, given their recent outperformance, better G7 economic data
and inflations fears here in Asia.
Looking back at US mutual fund data back to 1990, we see no evidence that this
actually happens when Asia underperforms the US, with the notable exceptions
of bear markets. In other words, if Asia keeps underperforming US equities, in a
rising market environment (or at least one that is not a global bear market), it is not unreasonable to see US flows being positive, but Asian flows also positive.
In Chart 3, we show the 3 episodes since 1990 when EM flows are negative
whilst DM flows are positive – two of them are during global bear markets
whilst the other one relates to the Asian financial crisis. For sure, there is an asset allocation shift at the margin away from Asia to developed markets that has mirrored the recent outperformance of developed markets. But flows don’t tend to fully reverse and turn negative unless we are in a major bear market. More likely, what seems to be driving the US and other developed markets up, is
an asset allocation shift away from fixed income to developed equities – as the
data suggests.
Strategy summary
While flows are starting to reverse on some measures, we are not seeing
calamitous selling. More importantly, we also find historically that when the US
outperforms Asia in a rising market, there is little evidence of investors selling
Asian funds to ‘get overweight’ developed markets. More often, flows to Asia
just slow down. In other words fears that the recent outperformance of the US
versus Asia will lead to a substantial reversal of flows seem over played.
At the country level, India’s flows, at 10% of market cap in 2010, were the highest. If there is foreign capital flight, this market looks the most vulnerable.
The good news is that historically, equity portfolio outflows have tended to be
moderate and short-lived affairs in India, with the exception of the global
financial crisis. In other words, strong inflows do not usually reverse. Taiwan’s
flows, very strong in the last quarter of the year, look unlikely in our opinion to repeat themselves. We see no positive or negative in Korea’s flow data, which
has been steady and unspectacular for most of the last year, i.e. not vulnerable in our opinion. Finally, the froth in inflows in September/October last year into
Indonesia has entirely reversed. From a flow perspective the Indonesian data
looks most interesting (on the positive side).
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