Some Traction For The Markets Finally

Two up days, one big down day, then the same charade again. This is the recipe for not doing anything in the markets. However, I finally found something which may actually signal a proper uptrend move over the near term. As investors await the outcome on Thursday of a critical two-day US Federal Reserve meeting expected to deliver fresh initiatives to kick-start the US economy.


In the latest news, the euro zone finance ministers increased the pressure on Greece to get its economy in shape by pushing back from next week to early October an assessment on whether it is meeting its obligations to receive the next tranche of bailout money.

This stunned Greece on Friday night, as it has already stated it will be out of money by mid-October and desperately needs the next €8 billion tranche.

The problem appears to be Finland's desire for collateral from Greece for its participation in the plan - a position other European countries will also want should it be accepted.

This is potentially a major stumbling block for markets because should Greece fail to get the money and soon - and it is also getting harder and harder for Greece to meet its obligations as its economy contracts by 7 per cent - it will go into default on its €330 billion of sovereign debt.


Why I say there is some traction was that the  looming European financial meltdown was partially averted a few days ago after the European Central Bank, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the central banks of Switzerland and England agreed to inject serious US-dollar liquidity into the European banking system.


That wasn't the "killer app" but rather the subsequent confirmation that Germany and France continue to officially support Greece's position in the EU helped enormously. Not many have picked up on this but the confirmation basically averted a contagion.


For the past few weeks, shares have been hammered out of oblivion, making valuations for shares quite reasonable, but every time buyers popped in, it will be followed by selling waves a day or two later - that's largely because the Greek issue, if not contained, will quickly morphed as similar mega problems for Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal.


The underlying fear was that Greece may be "allowed to default", or be moved out of the Euro currency - both will trigger avalanches of fear for the other problematic Euro countries mentioned. With the confirmation by France and Germany, Greece will stay put and the problems will be solved within EU auspices.

The finance ministers of the 17 countries that comprise the euro zone made their decision on Greece at a meeting on Friday night in Poland, and as an indication of how important matters now are in the region, it was attended for the first time by a member of the US Treasury - Secretary Timothy Geithner.
Yet there was little else resolved. It was agreed to tighten the sanctions on governments that failed to meet their EU debt and deficit limits (something that might have helped if it had been in place over the past decade) but issues such as the US's call for Europe to leverage its bailout fund to increase its size and Finland's request for collateral were left unanswered.


These developments are as positive as one can get given the dire situation. I know that sounds silly but its probably true.

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